This is a topic that I am passionate about. Yes, a 12th team is a good idea. I’ll break up my opinions to match your two part series…

Notre Dame is the answer. Unfortunately, the Big 10 and ND TV contracts of the past two years likely killed this opportunity (or at best punted it ten years down the road). When we get to alignment, I’ll describe why alignment would likely be different with Notre Dame than any other member.

As for other possibilities, remember that the Big Ten thinks of itself as an academic conference as much as an athletic conference. The school that will be chosen will need to be a research institution of high regard. In fact, it’s not a cooincidence that all 11 schools are members of the Assoc. of American Universities. Other than Notre Dame, I would anticipate that any future Big Ten member will also be an AAU member.

Who does that include?

1) Pitt
2) Syracuse
3) Rutgers

These all would be plays to the east. I really think that Rutgers would be a great fit, and if Schiano could keep that program going for a couple of more years at a high level, it would be a good lock on to the NYC/NJ media markets. Geographically, Syracuse and Pitt don’t bring much to the table. The Big Ten won’t make more money on the Buffalo/Albany media markets. Penn State gives it a good share of Pittsburgh as it is.

4) Missouri
5) Nebraska

Looking west, would either of these school want to get out of the now Texas-centric Big 12? I somehow doubt it.

6) Virginia
7) Maryland
8) Texas
8) Vanderbilt

These are your complete long shots. Virginia/Maryland would be a play into the DC market (and aren’t that far from Penn State). Texas is Texas. Vanderbilt is a (small) entry into the South. In an age when Clemson and BC can be conference mates (and La. Tech and Hawaii can too), stupider things have happened.

Looking at the list, I’d rank the schools to the east as the best shots. 1) Rutgers, 2) Syracuse, 3) Pitt.

Here’s an interesting question: suppose we poach any of the Big East front runners, what happens to that conference?

One of the reasons I’m skeptical about cherry picking the east coast is the 2003 precedent. The conference’s low performance marks, and rising star, burning gas reputation, makes it particularly vulnerable to invasion.

I don’t know if we want to be know as the a-holes that destroyed the Big East. After all, the Karmic gods of the college football universe seem to have punished the ACC for their misdeeds.

Still (this is such a lawyer thing to say), does anybody have access to the membership agreements for the Big East candidates? I’d love to look at the contracts and find out exactly what obligations are in play? Like it or not, this one comes down to money.

Bleacher Report has a terrific article here that gives a stellar overview. Of their more lofty ideas: a 14 team Big 10 — with two 7 member divisions; round-robin plus 2 teams on a rotating basis from the other division. They suggest a possible coup d’etad on the Big 12: bagging Missouri, Nebraska, and (oh boy) Texas. (Alternatives to this scenario include Texas A&M, and Iowa State). Additionally, they do a nice job of looking at the potential revenue streams from each move.

One more point: Bama wisely mentioned the Association of American Universities allegiance. Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas all fit the bill.

There’s also the possibility that the current 12th member of the Academic Big 10 (Chicago University) reinstates athletic programs and fields a respectable D1 football team.

Oh, there’s no chance of that happening? OK, back to the drawing board.

The more I think about this, the more I think this will never actually happen. I believe the Big 10 has asked ND a few times throughout its history to join and has been turned down every time (and this was before the days of fat lucrative television contracts and the like), so I doubt the trend would be bucked. Cherry picking the Big East is a nice idea, but there are also potential problems there with contracts and karma…oh and additionally Syracuse hasn’t fielded a decent team since McNabb left. Moreover if this season is any indication it looks like Rutgers was a one trick pony named Ray Rice, and without him the wheels have come off. Perhaps Schiano will be able to turn things around, but based on history I’m a bit more inclined to call the 2 years of success an aberration from their normal teams (i.e. terrible), rather than this year being the outlier. And as I said in the other thread, I think WVa is backsliding towards mediocrity now that RichRod is no longer at the helm (this could easily change, but I seriously doubt it happens with Stewart at the helm).

Which brings me to cherry picking the Big 12; Nebraska is a founding member of the Big 8 (the predecessor of the Big 12, which was essentially a merger between the Big 8 and the Texas portion of the SWC—though the Big 12 doesn’t claim the Big 8 as their history, it’s hard to deny the lineage and obvious connections) and I would say rather unlikely to leave the one conference it’s been a member of (despite name changes) for about 100 years. Mizzou was another founding member of the Big 8, so again I say that these 2 schools will stick with tradition and wouldn’t even entertain an offer to leave the Big 12.

Texas is an interesting idea, but I don’t believe it’s a realistic one. Texas has several in-state rivals, and I don’t mean the kind of rivalry that ESPN/ABC commentators refer to when OSU or Michigan is playing an in-state MAC school (i.e. there is no rivalry), but actual rivalries. Now aside from it’s rivalry with A&M, one could argue that the others are at a dramatically reduced intensity—and I agree with that. But my main point is that Texas has far too many rivals to jump from its conference alone. If the Big 10 took several Texas teams (e.g. Texas, A&M, and Tech—the 3 of the 4 that joined the Big 8 from the SWC), then it would be more likely. However re-creating the Big 8 and taking a chunk of the state of Texas for a Big 14 seems pretty damned unlikely.

Last on the list is Vandy, which seems logical and likely, but has been a member of the all speed, all the time conference (SEC) since its inception in the 1930s. Again, I’m guessing that Vandy would stick with tradition and stay with the ess-eee-cee!

So as I said at the start, I seriously doubt this will actually happen. If by some chance it does, it will be Notre Dame (after NBC drops them, and touchdown Jesus is defiled)…so yeah, it won’t happen.

Cincinnati – The possible “Texas Tech” of the Big 10 (always threatening, never quite getting over the hump, red and black colors, hot new coach)…an up and coming football school, smack dab in the middle of good recruiting ground, a great Midwest city, barely any ties to Big East football…Not exactly an institution of higher learning however; no one will ever forget the 0% graduation rate of those Kenyon Martin teams…

I don’t know the dollars for a BE buyout, but that won’t be prohibitive. It’s a two year wait though. BC had to go through that when they were the last to join up with the ACC.

Notre Dame was asked at least twice: once when Penn St. joined (this was informal) and formally in 1999. Both times the ND administration/board shot the Big Ten down. Notre Dame lobbied hard for admission during the Rockne days and into the 60s.

Adding three and going to 14 makes the western additions make far more sense. Mizzou and Nebraska wouldn’t jump alone, but would they with Kansas? Would Texas, A&M and Tech all split? Still highly unlikely, but possible. Iowa State would add nothing to the conference.

As for the Big East schools, you’re looking at it wrong, Estrada. Don’t focus on the quality of team that’s joining, focus on the money (i.e. media markets) that will come. That’s why a strong Rutgers program jumps to the the top of the list. If Rutgers is back to being a perpetual doormat and no one in the NYC/Tri-State area cares about them, then they’re much less attractive. Syracuse and Pitt have to be looked at as programs and not teams. It doesn’t matter as much how good you are now, but how good you’ve been over 20-50 years.

Thanks Graham… For a minute my heart stopped. I would die if Penn State and Ball State ended up in the same conference. Mostly because Ball State would get battered around every single year, but also because my teams would have to play each other at some point and who they heck would I root for?

Great article though. The only real possibility from your list is Pitt, and also Cincy. I don’t think WVU or ND would ever come to the Big Ten, for obvious reasons, and I don’t know that I want them. Penn State doesn’t get along to well with either. I suppose it would make for an interesting season, though…

Bama Hawkeye makes an excellent point regarding the AAU. No way we’ll see a school like Cincinnati or Memphis.

When/if the financials make sense for Notre Dame, this will happen. Otherwise, I don’t see any of the teams listed above abandoning their current conference rivalries for the Big Ten.

Northern Illinois?

JK

Well maybe in a few years…

why prospects for expansion are so convoluted.

Northern Illinois it is…

(Also kidding.)

Why not Toledo? I mean they have wins against current B11 teams (Michigan, Minnesota, and Penn State off the top of my head, plus a shot to take down OSU next year). I graduated from their Civil Engineering program so I like to think their academics are top notch as well.

(Also kidding, but it would be nice to let Penn State get another crack at them so we can take Toledo off the list of teams JoePa has never beaten)