Long Time Comin'
I had all kinds of good intentions to write last week. But, something kept holding me back. I think it was on Tuesday that I convinced myself that not only could the Hawkeyes beat Penn State, but that they would beat Penn State. Should I write about that feeling? Have you seen my record in the predictions contest? Anything that I wrote would be guaranteed to be wrong. I would single-handedly be cursing my team to a loss. (As an aside, I recently did this in the ALDS when I watched Game 4 of the series in a seated position other than the pre-determined White Sox victory position. Yeah, I'm that kind of fan.
So I kept my mouth shut. And I had one of the weirdest game watching experiences in my life.

As my moniker no doubt tipped you off, there are two teams to which I pay the most attention. Mrs. Hawkeye and I have been able to watch most of the games of both teams without conflict this year. This Saturday, CBS and ABC wouldn't give us the luxury. And so I readied my channel-flipping finger. As a rule, I tried to be watching whichever team was on offense. When Shonn Greene scored his early touchdown, my wife and I wondered out loud if this could happen. When Earl Alexander fumbled through the end zone for an Alabama touchback, we got out the bourbon...
What was amazing about the Hawkeyes game was how they continually did just enough. The defense kept coming through with one key stop to hold the Lions to field goals. The offense, when they were finally allowed to play in the second half, was able to convert just enough plays to get into the end zone. From what I saw, Penn State really only blew one coverage all day, and the Hawks were able to take advantage of it for the touchdown strike to DJK.
What was weird about the two simultaneous games, was that I knew that Alabama would win, and I never really lost the feeling that Iowa would win, too. I worried about a defense that was on the field for 24 of the first 30 minutes of the game, but I was still feeling good. When Daniel Murray hit his kick, and twenty minutes later when John Parker Wilson plunged in for the winning OT touchdown, I was overjoyed. But I can't say I was surprised. The wins just felt like they were supposed to happen.
So what happens to Iowa now? They should beat Purdue. Dear God they should beat Purdue. A loss this Saturday will undo all of the good that has come form this win. Then they go to Minnesota where three things will be on the line:
via www.hawkmania.com
1) The most beautiful trophy in all of sports.
2) The opportunity to have a second chance to carry the goalposts out of the dome (while putting a fitting end the almost three-decade of Minnesota's misery in the dome).
3) The chance to claim a spot in the Outback Bowl. I'm comfortable predicting that unless a) Illinois upsets Ohio State or b) Oregon State wins out, the winner of the Iowa/Minnesota game will go to Tampa on New Year's Day. Considering where both of these teams spent last New Year's, they have to love being in a one game playoff for that honor.
Here's the thing though, is this a win that signals another rise of the Hawkeyes? As you may have seen during the broadcast, this was Iowa's first win over a Top 5 team since 1990. That win was a signal that Iowa was back from it's late-80's slip under Hayden Fry. It would go to the Rose Bowl that year, and finish the following year at 10-1 (a team that Lee Corso would proclaim to be the best team ever to be kept out of a New Year's Day Bowl - the Big Ten runner-up used to go to the Holiday Bowl). Could this be happening again? Why not? It's been a long time since Iowa had a win like that. Why not have it lead to bigger and better things?
A note about Wisconsin---if they push around Minnesota like they did Indiana (and it was impressive), they'll finish 7-5 and head to the Alamo Bowl or Champs Bowl. For a team that was 3-4, that's not so bad.
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And wither....
….Northwestern?
If NU wins its last two games (at Michigan, Illinois), it’d be 9-3 (5-3), with wins over both Minnesota and Iowa. It’d be two games up on the best that Wisconsin could do (7-5), and potentially up to 3 games up on Iowa (if Iowa loses out, which is unlikely — I think Iowa has a good shot at 8-4) or 2 games up on Minnesota (7-5, though then again if Minny beats Wisconsin, then they’d be 8-4, but Wisconsin could finish no better than 6-6).
I gotta believe NU could be in the running for the Outback (it has historically overperformed in terms of selling bowl tickets and bowl TV ratings, because its fanbase is spread around nationwide, even if it has problems selling tickets locally), as well as the Alamo and Champs Sports Bowl. Certainly going 2-0 in the final two games is imperative, but even 1-1 (especially if that one win leaves Illinois out of the bowl picture) might be enough to keep NU up on Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota in terms of pure tie-breakers. Granted, the bowls don’t have to follow those with some exceptions (no leaping teams with 2 more losses; must pick 7-5 teams before 6-6 teams, etc.), but they are important in terms of putting the “best” teams in terms of record/performance on the field.
by Chadnudj on Nov 12, 2008 11:35 AM CST 0 recs
Part prognosticating
I don’t do it well, but I was assuming that Northwestern loses at least one, and quite likely both of those. Maybe you saw something in the Ohio State game that gave you hope, but I didn’t.
Even at 8-4, Northwestern will get bypassed by Iowa and Wisconsin. History has shown that (like in 2000, when the co-Big Ten Champion Wildcats went to the Alamo Bowl after being by-passed by the CapOne and Outback Bowls.
Yes, If the ‘Cats finish 9-3, they’ll go no worse than the Alamo Bowl (I’d expect that an 8-4 Iowa would still be picked over them for the Outback – I’m not sure about 8-4 Minnesota), but at 8-4, the Cats will slide down the pecking order.
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 12, 2008 1:28 PM CST 0 recs
Well...
….aside from the fact that OSU has been the 2nd best team in the conference this season, I really saw nothing that would lead me to believe that NU would LOSE either of these 2 games.
I mean, they could/can lose them, but I think Michigan has been terrible all year, and one bounce back game against an Eric Decker-less Minnesota team tells you nothing — Minnesota has no running game and almost no receivers when you take out Decker, so UM was free to stack the box and go after Weber. They won’t have the same liberty against NU, who has some solid receivers (Peterman, Ward, Lane, Brewer, Ebert) and a semblance of a running game (weakened without Sutton/Conteh, but between QB Kafka and RB Simmons last week they still got over 100 yards against OSU). Throw in the “overlooking NU because the Big Game is coming up” factor, and I think NU wins one it SHOULD win against UM.
As for Illinois, I have no idea — they have a mobile QB (which has given us problems) and a good WR in Benn, but their D has been so inconsistent that it could turn into a shootout. Plus they give up a lot of turnovers (we do too, to be fair), and when we force TOs, we’ve done well.
I just don’t think NU gets bypassed at 8-4 for both Iowa (at 8-4 or 7-5) and Wisconsin (at BEST 7-5). Lots of this will have to do with past/recent appearances, backroom dealing, etc….but NU travels remarkably well. Look back at 2000 — the Outback Bowl selected OSU over NU despite NU having a better record….and watched as OSU couldn’t sell its full ticket allotment, while NU oversold its Alamo Bowl allotment. The idea is that the Outback Bowl is a BIGGER deal for NU fans than it would be for Wisconsin fans (who have been going to the Capital One Bowl for the past couple years, and would almost universally say their season has been disappointing)…thus more NU fans will show up. Throw in the geographic spread of NU alumni (tend to scatter further than some other Big Ten schools), and it’d be a bad idea for a bowl to pass over NU for Wisconsin (although maybe not Iowa).
Then again, as long as NU ends up warm, I’m happy — in fact, it’d be almost preferable to play against an ACC team in the Champs Sports Bowl, especially for me since my folks live in Florida and I’ll be down already for Christmas.
by Chadnudj on
Nov 12, 2008 3:20 PM CST
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