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The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 12

College football's smartest picks contest.

It's no secret that -- despite its out of conference shortcomings -- 2008 has bred a Big 10 that's decidedly more competitive internally.  With two full weeks of domestic abuse remaining, no fewer than three programs will stage a legitimate campaign for the title and The Rose Bowl, and that's not counting the three others competing for January play.

Week 11 Obligatory Results

FILLER (a.k.a. Oklahoma -- A month ago they needed Texas to lose twice just to get to the Big 12 Championship.  Now, they control their own destiny -- and the goal is nothing less than Miami.) 8
HOOKMANIA (a.k.a. Texas Tech -- They've been more impressive than the Sooners, but they're still the underdogs.  Fortunately, they've got The Rivalry, Esq. rooting for 'em.) 8
LAKEERIEMONSTAR (a.k.a. Alabama -- When's the last time you can remember that top of the SEC didn't mean top of the world?) 7
AZNSENSATION (a.k.a. LSU -- Defending a championship and not putting up much of a fight.) 6
PATERNOSGRANDDAUGHTER (a.k.a. Penn State -- Best in the Big Ten.  It's like sitting in the front row of coach.) 5
BAMA HAWKEYE (a.k.a. Minnesota -- from Week 2 winner to Week 11 pariah.) 5
FRANZ (a.k.a. West Virginia -- The Morgantown letdown.) 4
ESTRADA (a.k.a. Notre Dame -- Hey, look on the bright side: Charlie Weis is back to calling plays.  Expect to see the Irish's "strategic advantage" return.) 3

Week 11 Franz v. Filler winner FILLER


This season-long contest is beginning to look like the Big 12 South Race.  Graham's up, but not by much.  Filler 6, Franz 5.

Crystal Ball Call (pick of the week): N/A (Non-Alcoholic, or Non-Applicable: either way, this was a dry showing)

Hindsight is 20/20: PURDUE by 3 (FRANZ).  As my old Contracts professor would say, "You were off wondering in the woods."  MSU 21, Purdue 7.

Week 12:


1. INDIANA at No. 8 PENN STATE 12:00 p.m. EST, Big 10 Network

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FILLER predicts PENN STATE by 21

Indiana cannot stop the run; it's been a disappointing year for the linebackers, the front four, Greg Middleton, Kellen Lewis…Big question of the week: Can Penn State bounce back without a national title dangling in front of them?

FRANZ predicts PENN STATE by 35

This is the biggest spread I've ever picked.  That's because the Hoosiers are about to get ripped a new one.  Penn State won't be on a mission of mercy when they roar out of the gate disciplined and re-focused with Pasadena in plain view.  Let's look at a few conference metrics: PSU's Scoring Offense v. IU's Scoring Defense (1st, 11th), IU's Scoring Offense v. PSU's Scoring Defense (9th, 1st).  Need I say more?


2. No. 11 OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

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FILLER predicts OSU by 17

What a sexy matchup of 5 star quarterbacks with rocket laser arms and wonderful mobility…But TP is blessed with a power running back and the Big 10's best defense.

FRANZ predicts OSU by 14

In 2007 Ron Zook sold his soul to the devil for a win in Columbus, stabbing the No. 1 Buckeye defense in the heart and bleeding the final seven minutes of the clock out on a cold, dark November night.  The Illini pulled off the upset, but they made one fatal mistake: they jumped on the Block O.  Bad move boys.  Bad move.  The same Buckeye defense that gave Daryl Clark a minor concussion, and took Brian Hoyer out of the game will hit the pulp outta Juice Williams, complimented by a dual threat quarterback of their own with an arm that's looking better every week.  Then there's the Vest, who suddenely isn't afraid to call a fake punt on Fourth Down up by 21 points -- or run up the score.  Brutus ices Champaign.

Star-divide

3. NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN 2

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FILLER predicts MICHIGAN by 10

Wildcat mania! Just kidding; that hype was put to rest in week 7 when this just above average Northwestern team was blown out by Sparty. I feel like this injury ravaged Wildcat team has lost the momentum that has twice carried them into the rankings this year. RichRod finally showed me something last week, coaching his cornerbacks to jump routes and calling high percentage passing routes for Nick Sheridan. Wolverine Mania!

FRANZ predicts MICHIGAN by 3

It doesn't happen often, but I agree with Graham.  A cursory glance at the numbers won't tell you much here.  After all, on paper the 'Cats are better on both sides of the ball.  But Michigan's offense is coming into its own: showing a continuous and systematic ability to execute -- particularly in the air.  Kafka's metamorphosis has added a pair of legs to the no-huddle grass attack, but the UM defense will hold 'em in the end.  The Wolverines scavenge a close one at home.


4. PURDUE at IOWA 12:00 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network

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FILLER predicts IOWA by 13

The toughest Big 10 running back faces the softest linebacking corps in the Big 10. I would love to claim "letdown game" on Iowa's part, but the Hawks have a decent bowl to play for now…Strategy side note: How does Ricky Stanzi continue to get ice in his veins on these last minute drives?

FRANZ predicts IOWA by 14

Yeah, I'm done picking Purdue.

5. CALIFORNIA at OREGON STATE 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC

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FILLER predicts OREGON STATE by 8

But this game doesn't have any relevance Graham! Yes it does. Reason #1) OSU's impact on Penn State's strength of schedule could determine whether a one loss PSU team makes it into the BCS. Reason #2) The Beavers could possibly win the Pac 10 by beating Cal, AZ, and Oregon – this from a team that we claimed was "gutted like a pacific salmon" in our Pac 10 preview. #3) Who wouldn't want to watch scatbacks Jahvid Best and Jaquizz Rodgers run behind powerful, well coached offensive lines?

FRANZ predicts OREGON STATE by 3

Sure, Cal held USC to 17 points last week, but they barely managed to choke out 150 yards of offense.  As Graham indicated, this match comes down to the Golden Bear's rushing D -- let Rodgers slip between the tackles and you're done.  California is fourth in the Pacific 10 stopping the run allowing 116 yards a game.  Interestingly, they give up almost forty more yards on the ground when playing away than at home -- that's not good.  I think the Beavers want it more.  Plus, it'd be nice to see someone who's not USC win the Pac 10.  Viva Corvallis!


6. MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC

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FILLER predicts WISCONSIN by 8

I am rolling with the Big Mo this week…Wisconsin has visibly picked up the intensity of its play since the Illinois game. P.J. Hill has rejuvenated the running game for the Badgers, while the defense stopped melting down. Will this rivalry game turn help the cheeseheads forget their five Big 10 losses?

FRANZ predicts WISCONSIN by 10

My how the tables have turned.  Wisky weathered a four-game losing streak, and is back on track (Rose Bowl ambitions aside).  Mini's on its way to a four-game drought, despite its own conceivable shot at Pasadena.  College football, my friends, is proof that sometimes life is stranger than fiction.  The Badgers wear down a Golden Gopher defense that allows an average of 142 yards on the ground.


7. NOTRE DAME at NAVY 12:00 p.m. EST, CBS

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FILLER predicts NAVY by 3

Last year, Navy beat the Irish for the first time since Roger Staubach won the Heisman. Now that the Irish have again been exposed as mediocre, can Chuck Weis's increased playcalling overcome the rush-happy Midshipmen? Keep an eye on Navy's option run…BONUS: Here is an article featuring some of the offensive tricks Navy will use on Saturday.

FRANZ predicts NOTRE DAME by 10

With the exception of (then) No. 16 Wake Forest, Navy has lost to every decent team they've played.  This year's Irish are leaps and bounds better than last year's team that spoiled the streak.  Notre Dame is 53rd in the country against the run (allowing 132 yards on average).  Navy averages 302 on the ground.  Granted, it's the only thing they do.  Chuck gets the wagon turned around.

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Yes it does. Reason #1) OSU’s impact on Penn State’s strength of schedule could determine whether a one loss PSU team makes it into the BCS. Reason

Do you mean Championship game? PSU already has one loss and is probably going to the rose bowl if they win out. If they become a two loss team that’s a different question, but at that point becoming at at-large has a lot more to do with your school’s marketability than SOS.

The reason this is relevant, I think, is because OrSt goes to the rose bowl if they win out. The thought of PSU (again, if they win out) having to re-play a team they already beat makes the Iowa loss even harder to deal with.

by Kevin HD on Nov 13, 2008 5:35 PM CST   0 recs

I have not adjusted to the fact...

That Penn State is no longer in the BCS Title Game chase. The Iowa loss threw off my CFB radar and so I instantly pointed this game out because of the SOS implications for the Nittany Lions.

Is it completely impossible for Penn State to make it to the BCS? Like utterly impossible? I figured I would ask, bowl scenarios are so fun.

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 13, 2008 6:13 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Yes and No...

I don’t think it’s “utterly impossible” but the likelihood of that happening, unfortunately, is very very low. I think quite a few things need to happen in favor of Penn State for them to sneak in a la OSU, and obviously we have seen that happen once, maybe even twice depending on who you ask. But the biggest question, in my eyes, would be, if they somehow slip in, would they deserve it? No cried foul louder than me last year when every single thing that need to happen to get the Bucks in the championship did, and I do believe I stated “I wouldn’t want to be in it knowing I didn’t deserve it!” Now that the tables have potentially turned, I’m at risk of looking like a hypocrite if the Lions get every miracle they need to make it to the Big One. I certainly wouldn’t complain, but I don’t think I can handle anymore comparisons to the 2007 Buckeyes.

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 14, 2008 7:44 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Last week was bad for the big ten and for my teams...this week will be different

Penn State by 28: They are mad and will come out with a vengeance.
Illinois by 10: I’m an Illinois Alum and won’t ever pick against my team, please don’t make me cry Zook.
Northwestern by 3: Michigan sucks, they won’t win two games in a row.
Iowa by 10: Good defense and running game will slow down the game and Purdue will lose.
Cal by 7: Just don’t feel Oregon State is any good.
Wisconsin by 14: Minnesota got blown out by Michigan, not a good sign for them.
Notre Dame by 14: Navy won’t make it two in a row on Notre Dame.

by aznsensation on Nov 13, 2008 6:39 PM CST   0 recs

Just like Penn State, I'll be bouncing back with vengence :)

Penn State by 21
Illinois by 3 (please God, let this happen… I will literally be sick if Penn State has to share ANOTHER Big Ten Title with the Bucks after beating them in regular season)
Michigan by 7
Iowa by 9 ( I HATE picking this guys… >:o
Oregon State by 4 (every little bit counts!)
Wisconsin by 17
Navy by 1 (This would be quite helpful to Ball State, who is hunting for a BCS bid!!)

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 14, 2008 7:49 AM CST   0 recs

I will get something right this week

Penn State by 28
Ohio State by 8
Northwestern by 3 (I have gotten almost every Michigan game wrong. I’m now Costanza-ing my pick. This is the exact opposite of what I really think will happen, Michigan by 17)
Iowa by 10
California by 6
Wisconsin by 17
Notre Dame by 13

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 14, 2008 8:38 AM CST   0 recs

what a start by Bama

4 games down, 4 correct spreads…lets go Navy

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 15, 2008 2:27 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

So close...

Penn State by 24 (I want to say something really big like the 63-10 whooping PSU put on Illinois after the 2005 Michigan loss but I’m keeping my Penn State homer ideas down after last weeks miserable FAIL)
Ohio State by 28
Northwestern by 1
Iowa by 13
Oregon State by 6
Wisconsin by 21
Notre Dame by 10

by HookMania on Nov 14, 2008 12:02 PM CST   0 recs

My picks are as unsavory as Chuck's gunt...

…can I get bariatric surgery this week? Probably not, but here goes nothing (yet again):

PSU by 21 (it won’t even be this close, but PSU will take the foot off the gas in the 2nd half)
OSU by 5 (Juice will play well, but won’t have the juice to pull off another W without mullet J and Mendenhall)
Northwestern by 3 (they have historically given U of M problems when there was a large disparity in talent, now there isn’t, and despite Michigan’s resurrection against a Decker-less Minny, I don’t think they keep it rolling)
Iowa by 7 (tough to call, it depends on which version of Purdue and which version of Iowa shows up, but I think the Hawkeyes will pull this one out)
OSU by 2 (nobody beats Jacquizz….OK, people do, but fuck it)
Wisconsin by 17 (no Decker = no chance)
Notre Dame by 14 (I’d love to pick agains the Irish, but Navy barely beat a much worse version of this team last year)

by Estrada on Nov 14, 2008 1:16 PM CST   0 recs

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