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The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 11

College football's smartest picks contest.

It's about time.  After nine straight weeks of self-apparent obsolescence, the fans took one to the house on the hanchos.  So begins the eleventh hour.

Week 10 Obligatory Results

AZNSENSATION (a.k.a. Rose Bowl Game -- The Granddaddy of Them All)
15
BIGTENTRAVELER (a.k.a. The Fiesta Bowl -- in charge of the at large.  And, the preferred point of call for first-timers in the BCS)
10
ESTRADA (a.k.a. The Orange Bowl -- would be cool, except for the whole ACC Champion gets an automatic bid thing.) 10
FRANZ (a.k.a. Capital One Bowl -- just happy to be playing after New Years)
9
HOOKMANIA (a.k.a. Chick-Fil-a Bowl -- it's the highest attended non-BCS bowl game, that's gotta count for something, right?)
8
BAMAHAWKEYE (a.k.a. Motor City Bowl -- wasn't it you who said worst case scenario's inevitably lead to Detroit?) 6
FILLER (a.k.a. Queso on the couch bowl -- like his beloved Wolverines Graham will be home for the holidays.  Thanks again Bama). 5

Week 10 Franz v. Filler winner FRANZ

With the tenacity of a Wimbeldon Final, Franz strikes again on the baseline.  Deuce, 5-5.

OVERALL winner AZNSENSATION

It's true, for just the second time this season a lowly fan has bested the ego-pros.  Congratulations, AZN, your prize (chore) is a 500 word piece of real estate on the front page of The Rivalry, Esq.  Say anything you want, and e-mail Franz.50@osu.edu when you're finished with your diatribe.

Crystal Ball Call (pick of the week): NORTHWESTERN by 7 (AZNSENSATION)This perfect prescience earned our overall winner the maximum individual game alottment of points.  Not only did he pick the winner (+1), but he nailed the spread (+2) by an exact margin (+2) riding on an upset (+2).  What he should have said was "Northwestern for 7."  Northwestern 24, Minnesota 17.

Hindsight is 20/20: INDIANA by 11 (FRANZ).  Should have known better.  CMU 37, IU 34.

It's a new day at midnight.  Week 11:


1. No. 11 OHIO STATE at No. 24 NORTHWESTERN 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN 2

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FILLER predicts OSU by 17

If Bacher is healthy, he will start. But Kafka's mobility became quite obvious against Mini, so his presence on the field won't be balked at either. NW is a physical team, as proven by the Wooten and the Shonn Greene hit, but so are the Bucks. OSU's bend but don't break defense has been solid in the red zone, while the Northwestern offense has been inefficient in the red zone. Tressel gets another NW blowout.

FRANZ predicts OSU by 10

The big question here is how does Ohio State handle their national championship hopes being dashed and a rocky bye-week?  I think Graham is onto something when he mentions the brute physicality of the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball.  The last time we saw the scarlet they matched the Nittany Lions tit for tat on the line and in the backfield.  I like the Ohio State defense and its concussive precision to suffocate the Wildcat attack (sans Tyrell Sutton).  After that, it's up to the offense to get by their greatest tormentor: third down.


2. PURDUE at No. 18 MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 p.m. EST, Big 10 Network

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FILLER predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

Riding the momentum of a great victory over Wisky at home, the Spartans need to get Javon Ringer on track. A soft hitting Purdue linebacking corps may be just what MSU needs.

FRANZ predicts PURDUE by 3

Two words: Justin Siller.  In his first career start the dude was 21 for 34 for 266 yards and three touchdowns.  The Spartans have struggled against this kind of mobilized spread attack (see California).  Did you really think Joe Tiller was going down without a fight?

Star-divide

3. WISCONSIN at INDIANA 12:00 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network

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FILLER predicts WISCONSIN by 14

The Hoosiers hope to recreate the hard hitting defensive magic they dialed up against Northwestern, but Wisconsin will bring its deep stable of big backs and a revitalized running game (500 yards rushing in its last two games). It looks as if the Wisconsin coaches finally found what works in the rushing game: mini-sweeps and the traditional off tackle straight handoffs.

FRANZ predicts WISCONSIN by 21

After a four-game dive, the DOA Badgers bounced back against Illinois, only to lose a heartbreaker in East Lansing.  Again, they'll brave the road, only this time they'll face a bit of a jellyfish in an IU squad that rates eighth in conference in defending the rush.


4. MICHIGAN at MINNESOTA 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

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FILLER predicts MICHIGAN by 8

These teams have played a couple ultra-memorable games in the last few years; remember the 32 point Wolverine comeback in the Dome in 2003 or the late touchdown jaunt by Gary Russell (maybe?) to give Mini a victory at the Big House? Mini is the better team by far, featuring a well run offense with Adam Weber and a hard hitting defense. But Michigan is showing that maybe they can run with the Spread; Brandon Minor has picked up 110 rushing yards per game the last three weeks behind a mix of zone blocking schemes.

FRANZ predicts MICHIGAN by 14

Dammit.  I really don't want to pick these guys.  The Golden Gophers lead the Wolverines in total yards, passing yards, and points scored.  But they struggle against the run, and big blue is riding a five game losing streak.  Ann Arbor just doesn't do that.  Here we go again.

5. ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN 360

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FILLER predicts ILLINOIS by 3

This Ford Field showdown features the surprising Bronco's, led by quarterback Tim Hiller and his MAC Leading 317 ypg. The MAC has three victories against the Big 10 this year and Western would love to notch the fourth here. The Illinois' defense looked great against Iowa, sacking Stanzi six times and scoring a defensive TD. But Illinois has lost all three games played against high level QBs, getting beat by Chase Daniel, Daryll Clark, and Eric Decker. 

FRANZ predicts ILLINOIS by 7

This game will come down to the turnover margin.  Illinois is learning to cover the pass (allowing 6.9 yards per attempt, and boasting 5 interceptions), while Western Michigan isn't dropping the ball (10 interceptions total).  I think Juice Williams plays it safe, and carries the Illini out of Motor City.


6. No. 3 PENN STATE at IOWA 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC

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FILLER predicts PENN STATE by 16

The Big 10's commissioners office is holding a "Lets Go Penn State" party for this game. The Nittany Lion's are the obvious favorite; logic dictates that if the hard hitting PSU defense can slow Juice Williams, Terrelle Pryor, and Lyle Moevao, than handling Ricky Stanzi won't be too much of an issue. Iowa needs to slow this game to a crawl and never let the passing element of the Spread HD get uncorked.

FRANZ predicts PENN STATE by 21

Remember when No. 1 Ohio State visited Kinnick Stadium in 2006?  Everyone thought that would be an upset too.  The Lions are rested and ready.  Iowa is fourth in conference in passing defense and second in conference against the run.  Expect those numbers to change.


7. No. 9 OKLAHOMA STATE at No. 2 TEXAS TECH 8:00 p.m. EST, ABC

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FILLER predicts TEXAS TECH by 14

Graham Harrell doesn't get a week to relax and bask in being the #1 Heisman Contender; instead he faces a Ok St Team with an offense ranked in the top 10 and a defense that limited Colt McCoy to 28 points. Even better, Ok St ran a brilliant defensive scheme against Mizzou, forcing Chase Daniel into three picks. Can they get to Harrell the same way?

FRANZ predicts TEXAS TECH by 10

I get it now.  Tech picked up mega-blitzes last week like Obama picked up swing states.  Oklahoma State is a solid and innovative football team, with a serious rush.  The Red Raiders are second in the Big 12 in defending the middle.  The Cowboys may be rough riders but they're not the fastest draw.

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I'm back and ready to take a win

Ohio State by 7
Michigan State by 7 (though I hope Purdue can pull it out)
Wisconsin by 13
Michigan by 6
Illinois by 10
Penn State by 14
Oklahoma State by 3 (this may be a hopeful pick to topple number 1 and get Penn State in the top 2)

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 7, 2008 8:20 AM CST   0 recs

dont worry about texas tech, they'll lose to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma, more likely the latter

And Alabama won’t win their SEC Championship game, so if PSU wins out they have a 95% chance of making a national championship game in my mind.

by aznsensation on Nov 7, 2008 9:57 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

PaternosGranddaughter....

why you pullin’ for Purdue over Sparty?. We need all the help from MSU we can get in terms of our SOS. It is imperative a top 15 Spartans team gets beaten at the Beav, so we remain fresh in the voters eyes and point to another “quality” win. That being said, Justin Siller impressed me last week, but I thought Tiller was leaning toward Painter.

hopes Maybin wipes his ass with some TP

by conquering lion in the 215 on Nov 7, 2008 9:40 AM CST   0 recs

Well...

First of all my brother goes there. But mostly, I think our SOS is screwed in most everyone’s eyes anyways. If Ohio State isn’t even considered a quality win anymore, nothing will be. And if Sparty is a bit downtrodden coming to State College, it will make it all the easier to hammer them into the ground. But I completely see your point and it is very valid, obviously. I’m just not sure any win will look stellar in the voters eyes- everyone seems determined to slam the Big Ten for all it’s worth this season.

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 7, 2008 3:13 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Yay I won last week...let's make it two in a row baby!

1. OSU by 10; I really wanted to pick NW, but there’s too many questions with their QB
2. MSU by 21; Purdue barely squeaks by with wins at home against bad teams, on the road against good teams, they’ll get blown out.
3. Wisconsin by 10; Wiscy’s defense looks like its getting on track
4. Minnesota by 8; Once again Michigan sucks and i believe Threet is out so that spells double trouble.
5. Illinois by 14; They have a tough game and will lead big early but let Western Michigan get closer near the end.
6. PSU by 10; the game will be closer than most think, Iowa has good defense.
7. TT by 17; They’ll win this week but will lose against Oklahoma next week.

by aznsensation on Nov 7, 2008 9:55 AM CST   0 recs

Expect another slide from Poncherello

OSU by 12 (NW has been hit too hard by the injury bug to pull off the upset against the inconsistent Buckeyes)
MSU by 4 (Siller gives Purdue a spark, but it’s not enough)
Wisconsin by 17 (the Badgers rebound after the heartbreaker last week)
Minnesota by 10 (they’re just better)
Illinois by 5 (Hiller might be the best QB in the MAC, but that’s only enough to keep it close)
PSU by 17 (they’re rested and on an entirely different level than Iowa; expect them to stack the LOS like they did against OSU and shut down Greene)
OSU by 1 (Tech is a little bit better than OSU, but has an emotional let down after the biggest win in school history)

by Estrada on Nov 7, 2008 11:32 AM CST   0 recs

You do know...

…that Tiller is actually talking of starting Painter this week, right?

Maybe it’s all talk to keep MSU guessing, but it’s a “game time decision” according to the local papers.

I can't do this all on my own, I need some help---Kory Sheets

by carmen_fanzone on Nov 7, 2008 12:34 PM CST   0 recs

I have heard that.

It will be interesting to see who he picks.

This reminds me of one the soft factors Graham used in “grading” Big 10 Coaches: adaptability. He was pleased by Jim Tressel’s band-aid removal esque change from Todd Boeckman to Terrelle Pryor. While I can’t fault Tiller for starting the quarterback he deems best for the team (a subjective valuation), equivocating back and forth between the two says something about his ability to lead.

by Law Buckeye on Nov 7, 2008 2:27 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Exactly....

…and watching the team the last two weeks, you can tell the offense seems a little more “up” when Siller’s in there. The way the offense has struggled for much of the season, I don’t see how you don’t start a QB that put 48 points on the board and revitalized their dormant offense. And, most importanly, give him experience. We’ve got nothing to look forward to post season-wise, why not give the Freshman the ball?

Granted, we played Michigan and Siller is still green, but he gives us a running option that we didn’t have before and has shown some zip (if not touch) on his passing that has surprised many.

I can't do this all on my own, I need some help---Kory Sheets

by carmen_fanzone on Nov 8, 2008 6:43 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

One, Two, Three...Don't Suck!

The battlecry above rings out again as I strive not to disappoint my adopted city any worse than its professional football franchise (PLEASE, defense?). The picks:

OSU by 20: Boys play their nuts off after disappointing loss to PSU.
MSU by 14: Purdue has burned me enough this year. Et tu, West Lafayette?
WISC by 7: In a battle of two blue states (weird, right?). gotta go w/ the school that consistently has a program…even in a down year.
MINN by 3: Rich Rod has the Rabid Badgers playing like a real team again, but I like the Gophers at home.
ILL by 7: Yeah, MAC QBs are great…but the Illini manage not to further humiliate the Big Ten with a win here.
PSU by 3: I’m saying the combination of a pink locker room and hubris make this closer than it should be, but PSU survives.
OKST by 1: Upset special! TT lets down after an emotional win against the Longhorns, and lose the right to beat Penn State for the National Championship.

by lakeeriemonstar on Nov 7, 2008 11:59 PM CST   0 recs

In at the last

OSU by 17
State by 17
Wisconsin by 17
Minnesota by 10
Illinois by 17
Penn State by 4
Okie State by 3

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 8, 2008 8:59 AM CST   0 recs

Here we go again

OSU by 24 – OSU takes it out on NW
MSU by 14 – Ringer with a lot
Wisc by 17 – Lots of mismatches in the B11 today
Minn by 10 – I don’t think Threet is playing which spells disaster for UM
Illinois by 14 – Come on Illini, don’t let Penn State and the B11 down.
Penn State by 25 – Penn State’s defense sets up the O for some easy scores and maybe scores a td themselves (score is 35-10)
Tex Tech by 7 – Another back and forth game but Tech has the homefield and gets the W.

Yikes…lots of lopsided scores.

by HookMania on Nov 8, 2008 10:41 AM CST   0 recs

grrrr!

What did I just say to the Illini!

by HookMania on Nov 8, 2008 2:28 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

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