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Is the Big 10 Really as Bad as it Seems?

I leave tonight for Phoenix where I'll report amidst the purple rocks on the build up to No. 10 Ohio State's Tostitos' Fiesta Bowl Clash with No. 3 Texas.  Before packing my bags for the largely symbolic celebration, let's inventory our conference's bowl stock.

It's hard to argue with 1-5, but I'd like to suggest that the Big Brutes have actually performed admirably in light of disparities in matchups.  If you're the kind of person who likes to take notes here's what I'd write down:

The Great: Iowa's 31-10 impaling of SEC scapegoat South Carolina in yesterday's bacon and eggs Outback Bowl.  The Hawkeyes controlled virtually every aspect of the contest; capitalizing on Garcia's hilarious inability to read simple coverages, and manhandling the line of scrimmage.  Kirk Ferentz's blond boys looked powerful and in control.

The Good: No. 23 Northwestern's showing against No. 21 Missouri and it's "national championship" caliber offense and playmakers.  The Wildcats dominated the first quarter and a half of play: picking on Mizzou's miserable secondary and keeping them honest up front.  Pat Fitzgerald coached the purple to within a drive of searing the win and the Big 12's reputation.  (See also Michigan State's solid showing against a simply more talented Georgia team).

The Bad: Wisconsin's slowpoke strategy versus Florida State.  Wisky demanded respect for two quarters before burying itself in a mountain of turnovers and reminding us why they lost four straight in conference.  The especially bad: Coach Bret Bielema's sneeringly ill-fated response to halftime reporters: "They don't want anything to do with (the running game).  We're going to keep giving it to them."  He might have been more honest if he was talking about the ball.  (See also Minnesota's second half collapse against Kansas).

The Bad (Take 2): No. 8 Penn State's backwards blundering against the NFC West (ahem, Pac 10) Champion USC Trojans.  Sure, they played four whole quarters, and didn't quit when it looked like they might be turned into pillars of salt by the stratospheric talent differential, but I'm not here to sugar coat things.  The Nittany Lions were the epitome of uncool: from Daryl Clark's soft in the belly shyness after a successful quarterback draw led to Penn State's only first half points, to Joe Pa's falling asleep at the wheel strategy late in the game (i.e. opting for a field goal down 14-38 with 7:22 left to play).  The apparent justification?  He wanted to give Kevin Kelly the chance to kick a field goal in a Rose Bowl Game.  Aww, shucks, that's nice.

No wonder the Lions were wearing white: it's universal for "we surrender."  

On the Other Hand: Can you blame them?  Let's face it: when they come to play USC competes on another level.  With nine out of eleven defensive starters primed to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft we're not exactly comparing apples to apples.  In my opinion, praise for this victory belongs to Pete Carroll and what he's done over the past seven seasons.  USC has continuously and systematically obliterated and exposed apparent "equals," drawing from a common pool of talent.  It's no secret that the Trojans were one game away from playing for and winning it all and if your head still hurts when you try to figure out how they lost to friggin' Oregon State remember this axiom I first wrote in September:

Columbus can't slay the dragon, Los Angeles can't swat the fly.

What's really happened here is that the Big 10 has been unevenly yoked from top to bottom in this bowl season and Ohio State and its maniacal fan base (myself included) is to blame.  

I'm convinced that the conference is a more competitive entity across the board and (with the exception of Wisconsin) can escape the post-season David and Goliath gauntlet with its head up, having gained the invaluable experience of trial by fire.  

Oh yeah, and we've still got the Buckeyes.  

Is anyone holding their breath?

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LB

I can’t say that I agree with this. For the 2nd time in the last three years, I fought the good battle, asserting that the big10 wasn’t that bad and wasn’t that slow. I really believed that.

After watching these bowl games, however, I am no longer in that camp. Maybe it’s the economy and folks losing jobs, but the Big10 just looks slow. Maybe worse, however, is that they no longer appear to be superbly coached (something I’ve long believed they were). The Big10 doesn’t take football as seriously as other conferences anymore and it shows.

I was especially shocked at just how pained these teams looked when they dropped back to throw the football. Elite teams should not look that bad in their pass protections, and we’ve seen it time and again now. Why is this? I don’t think Northern teams see the big guy speed that the south has. Sure, you have some wideouts, but it’s impossible to simulate something with your scout team when your first string guys can’t simulate that. Big10 offensive lines were big, but slow. Southern defensive front 7’s (and USC) overwhelmed the slow big10 lines. We saw this with USC, UGA (who was horrible on defense this year and couldn’t pressure anyone), Florida State. More shocking was Northwestern and Minnesota making the defensive front 7’s of Missouri and Kansas look like world beaters, when they were terrible all year.

The Big10 can solve some of this through coaching and renewed emphasis on football. Ferentz is worth every penny, and Dantonio is a great keep, but the Big10 needs to decide whether they want to spend big-boy dollars across the board or just let their two or three major universities do so.

The problem of athleticism isn’t easily solved. Penn State played not to get blown out— and still got the doors blown off of them. They didn’t have a single corner who could consistently cover a USC wideout. Their slow, white safety would be a division two player at most southern schools. Aaron Maybin is a great athlete but he looked average against USC, and players from FSU, UGA, Kansas and Missouri looked just as impressive against the sorry line play of their respective opponents, as Maybin did against them in the regular season.

Another way to evaluate over/ under achievement is the vegas line.
IOWA favored by 4… won by 21 (cover)

Mich State dogs of 8… lost by 12
Wisconsin dogs of 6… lost by 29
Northwestern dogs of 10… lost by 7 (cover)
Minnesota dogs of 8… lost by 21
Penn State dogs of 9… lost by 14 (as USC cruised, up by 24 at half)

Vegas thought the Big10 would lose their games by a collective 27 points (projected 1-5)
Instead, they went 1-5 and lost by 62. they got embarrassingly blown out of the water by more than double the expected spread.

I think the Big10 is now worse than the Big East… something I thought I’d never say. In fact, I don’t think anyone but the top 3 Big10 teams would have a winning record in the ACC, much less the SEC.

That said… I think Ohio State will hang with Texas pretty well. I just don’t see much hope for this conference all of a sudden not panicking when they are forced to pass, playing decent man coverage, or just getting big and fast athletes.

by FSUncensored on Jan 2, 2009 5:24 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Slow down

before we all start sucking on the ACC popsicle, let’s remember that the second best ACC team lost to Vanderbilt…6-6 Vandy. The third best ACC team lost to a 7-5 LSU by as many points as could fit under Les Miles’s hat, and the team in the ACC’s 3rd Best bowl lost to a mediocre 7-5 Nebraska team.

Also, your spread analysis failed to take into account the +18 that Iowa brought to the table.

No, the Big Ten is not weaker than the Big East. Nor is it weaker than the ACC. It just asks for more from it’s schools than beating 7-5 mediocre teams.

by Bama Hawkeye on Jan 2, 2009 11:04 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Duke also beat Vanderbilt. BC played a road game and had to use a freshman QB who had played one game, ever.

And my spread analysis was correct: 21 (win) – 12 -29 -7 -21 -14= -62

The ACC also had to play several bowl games in the opponent’s home arena. Clearly GTech disappointed, but the ACC played well in most of their games, given the circumstances (3 teams without their starting QB’s, and having to use freshmen at those spots). One ACC team got embarrassed, if I remember correctly. Most of the losses were very close where either team could have won.

The BIG10 is definitely weaker than the ACC. 1-5 in the bowls? A poor out of conference record during the regular season (while the ACC was .500 or better against every other conference)…

If the BIG10 asks for more from its schools than beating 7-5 mediocre teams, maybe it should re-adjust its expectations.

by FSUncensored on Jan 3, 2009 2:30 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's take a look at this...

If the ACC had the Big Ten matchups….

VT v. USC (loss)
BC v. Texas (loss)
FSU v. UGA (loss)
Ga Tech v. So. Carolina (win)
Clemson v. Mizzou (loss)
obviously have to skip the Champs Bowl
Wake v. Kansas (loss)

Looks like the same 1-4 heading into the Fiesta that the Big Ten has now.

And if the Big Ten had the ACC assignments…

Penn State v. Cincy (win)
Ohio State v. LSU (win)
Michigan State v. Nebraska (win)
again, skipping the Champs
Iowa v. Vandy (win)
Northwestern v. Cal (loss)
Wisconsin v. Navy (win)
Minnesota v. Nevada (win)

Bowl records look a lot better when you play easier teams.

by Bama Hawkeye on Jan 4, 2009 12:14 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You honestly believe

MSU would beat Nebraska
Wisky would beat Navy
and Minnesota could hang within two TD’s of Nevada?

The ACC proved that it can hang with every conference during the season, having a .500 record or better against every other conference.

by FSUncensored on Jan 4, 2009 11:03 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Big Ten has a much brighter future than the ACC and Big East. Big East has nowhere to recruit and ACC can’t out-recruit SEC teams.

You have the Florida schools (Miami with Dade County) and FSU (great recruiting class this year) and that is about it. OSU has recruited maniacally in the past two years, PSU is recruiting about the same, and MSU is recruiting above their historical average. Illinois has, probably, the second best athletes in the conference but they have a horrible head coach. I almost forgot Minny, who are recruiting WELL above their historical average.

If you switch the quarterbacks in that MSU-Georgia game, you can switch the score. Wisconsin couldn’t hang with FSU, as you saw. Mizzou should have been beaten by NU, who are also recruiting above historical averages, and Iowa’s working of USC.

Throw out the PSU game, no one has out recruited USC over the past four years. Their average class rating is 4.something which nobody can touch.

The fact is that the B10 was over seeded this year. If Oregon St. beats Oregon then you have a VASTLY different bowl picture.

by gahnki on Jan 2, 2009 11:17 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"If you switch the quarterbacks in that MSU-Georgia game"

Really? Who would “Stafford” have thrown to if you could do that? Those sacks by a defense that finally showed up in the 11th hour of the season weren’t going to change. Georgia gave MSU a gazillion chances in the first half of that game. Georgia was clearly the more talented team and as it had done 9 times prior, won the game despite themselves. Just sayin…

Abolish directional kicking.

by DavetheDawg on Jan 3, 2009 9:23 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You obviously have little familiarity with Brian Hoyer. Kid plays the same in every big game. Tightens up, misses receivers, takes sacks, does dumb things, etc. Been that way since high school when I saw him play 20 minutes down the road from me.

The difference in the game was Stafford. Kid made plays in the second half. Moreno couldn’t do anything, Georgia’s line actually made the MSU defensive line look good (Didn’t know that was possible), and your receivers who are mostly average (Green is good). Mark Dell is a heck of a receiver for MSU, their TE is good, and they have Ringer out of the backfield. Do they have explosive talent? No, but neither does Georgia. For all the talk of SEC superiority, it certainly didn’t show in that game or even throughout the year.

by gahnki on Jan 3, 2009 8:52 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That said… I think Ohio State will hang with Texas pretty well. I just don’t see much hope for this conference all of a sudden not panicking when they are forced to pass, playing decent man coverage, or just getting big and fast athletes.

Well… they almost did it.

by FSUncensored on Jan 5, 2009 11:07 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so close

First time I have rooted for Ohio State since…umm..that bowl game against ND in 06

by grahamfiller10 on Jan 6, 2009 12:22 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In a word...yes

The Big 10 has run into the perfect storm of bad bowl matchups, under developed offenses, and off years. Our bowl anchor for the last 33 years went 3-9 during a rebuilding year and the reigning Rose Bowl contestant missed the bowl season. When the mantra for the Big 10’s bowl expectations is “I hope they play well and don’t get murdered,” one almost must believe this to be a down year.

I don’t think there is any shame in admitting the Big 10 is less than stellar this year in football. That’s a purely comparative statement that doesn’t take too much away from the surprising success of Minnesota and Northwestern or the outright line dominance of Iowa. It does beg the question however: What must the Midwest do to improve

by grahamfiller10 on Jan 2, 2009 5:24 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Match-ups be damned.

Its not an issue of match-ups. If a conference is going to step up it needs to beat its nononference opponents in bowl games, regardless of who is on the other side of the field. I’m no OSU fan, but I give them credit for putting schools like USC and Texas on the regular season schedule. If they win the conference and beat a nonconference opponent like that, there is no doubt they deserve to be in the championship game. In the current climate of college football a top ranked team needs a “hook” to get the required votes to play in the BCS title game. The SEC and Big 12 teams have the benefit of playing more top ranked opponents in their own conference and then playing a championship game.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Jan 2, 2009 8:09 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Schedule the SEC

Kyle over at Dawgsports has been championing a Georgia-Michigan series for years now. If you are going to play the SEC in a bowl game, why not familiarize yourselves through an occasional non-conference home-and-home series which would certainly be good for the fans and potentially recruiting?

Abolish directional kicking.

by DavetheDawg on Jan 3, 2009 9:18 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly, I think the fans on both sides are all for this—I don’t think the respective schools are (unfortunately).

by Estrada on Jan 3, 2009 9:57 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

SEC schools refuse to come north. They don’t want to play in the cold. Ohio State has been BEGGING an SEC school to come north and UT finally agreed to it this past year.

by gahnki on Jan 3, 2009 8:54 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

B10 schools play the lowest percentage of BCS schools in their non-conf schedule

Conf. BCS Foes/OOC Games Pct.
ACC 23/48 47.9%
Pac 10 14/31 45.2%
Big East 16/41 39.0%
Big XII 15/48 31.3%
SEC 15/48 31.3%
Big Ten 13/44 29.5%

by FSUncensored on Jan 4, 2009 11:03 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And

And each conference’s record against other power-league competition:

    Conf. Record Pct.
    ACC 15-8 .652
    Big East
     9-7 .563
    Big XII
     7-8 .467
    Big Ten
     6-7 .462
    Pac 10
     6-8 .429
    SEC
     6-9 .400

Furthermore, the following is the combined record of each league’s BCS opposition:

    Conf. Record Pct.
    Pac 10
     102-66 .607
    ACC
     174-117 .598
    SEC
     104-76
     .578
    Big East
     110-82 .573
    Big Ten
     84-72 .538
    Big XII
     91-93 .495

by FSUncensored on Jan 4, 2009 11:04 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We have no hope in the Buckeyes,lets all face it

by xozte on Jan 3, 2009 1:45 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You Reall Don't Want NUN!

The game on Monday night will remind everyone why BIG 10 stays away from BIG 12… again.

by Eagleshavenobowls on Jan 3, 2009 11:51 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The short answer to the question posed . .

is yes, it is as bad as it seems for the Big Ten.

In the last 2 years, the Big Ten has beaten a grand total of 2 BCS bowl teams in its non-conference schedule (Penn State over Oregon State, Michigan State over Notre Dame—both this year). That’s one less than, wait for it, the MOUNTAIN WEST (Utah over Oregon State, New Mexico over Arizona, and Utah over UCLA in 2007). For comparisons sake, the SEC and Pac-10 each have 8 wins over BCS bowl teams in this same time span.

The Big Ten as a group has scheduled 13 of its 44 non-conference games against BCS schools in each of the last two years. So in general, the conference schedules like crap out of conference (that’s not exclusive to the Big Ten by the way), doesn’t beat the quality teams they do schedule, and then gets torched in bowl season (6-15 in their last 21). In what world is that “not as bad as it seems.”

by DoubleB on Jan 4, 2009 11:26 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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