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2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 7

The tier system holds this week, even if it didn't match the results on the field.  Ohio State's loss has me rethinking the Buckeyes.  They still control their own destiny, win out and they go to Pasadena.  But do you trust that offense to beat the Wolverines?  Score at Penn State?  Win against Iowa?  I see them losing at least one of those three.  For now, I'm projecting a 7-1 tie between Iowa and Penn State, with Iowa winning the tiebreaker.  This could be a year where 6-2 wins the league, and there is a 4 way tie for the title.  This race is fascinating.

7aaabab8-af77-44ff-bb54-6c4138b4ae7b_medium

Star-divide

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here
Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Neither looked pretty, but I still think these are the two best teams in the country.  And really, which team did look good last week? 
Orangebowl_2005_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Miami_fl_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium As Penn State's O-Line has improved, I've come around on them.  I have them at 11-1 (7-1) and losing a tiebreaker to Iowa.  If Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech all win out, Miami wins the division tiebreaker.  

Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Notre_dame_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium As I said, 10-2 Notre Dame goes here.  They only move out if they lose again.  TCU is here until they lose, at which time they'd be replaced by Boise State.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium SEC Championship Game loser versus Big East Champ, which looks like the Cincy/PItt winner.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Southern_california_medium_medium_medium_medium As a fan, I feel like I've now jinxed the Hawks and guaranteed their loss in East Lansing.  They can slip up once, not twice.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium USC still doesn't lose the big ones.  Ohio State now loses the small ones, too.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium_medium I'm keeping Auburn here for now, but this will likely end up being the place for the Georgia/Auburn winner.
Champssportsbowl_2004_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Clemson_medium_medium Wisconsin had better hope that this isn't the start of a horrendous slide like last year.  The schedule should help prevent that.  
Alamobowl_2007sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Nebraska_medium Don't sleep on Sparty.  They still have a legitimate  shot to run the table and run to the Roses.  Nebraska wins the Big 12 North, but it's not pretty.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Missouri1_medium No conference had a worse weekend than the Big 12.  Nebraska's second loss, Missouri's second loss, Oklahoma's third, and Kansas's first (to Colorado) left only Oklahoma State as a viable second BCS team. I think we'll see 10-2 Okie State in the Cotton Bowl.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Central_michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium You will beat Indiana and get to six wins, right Wildcats?
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_mediumIllinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

A tip of that hat to the two Indiana schools.  If they could have won some of their near-misses in the first four weeks, they might have made bowl games. As it is, at least they're not the Illini. 

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Notre Dame

I think if it was adifferent year, or if they had at least beat Michigan in that 10-2 maybe then they would be in the Top 8, but they’ve had trouble cracking the top 25 and have lost to the 2 best teams they have played. I don’t see them getting a BCS bid. I’d like to think they might lose to Navy again this year, but that’s probably wishful thinking.

by Lostincali on Oct 18, 2009 8:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Correct me if I'm wrong.

But I think that they need to get to the Top 14 to be BCS eligible. At that point the assumption becomes that a bowl will take them at the first available opportunity. Well, almost first – after Florida.

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Oct 18, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry

I was thinking about an automatic bid for Notre Dame (8th or better) but I still cant see them in the top 14 for an at large.

by Lostincali on Oct 18, 2009 9:05 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If they don't lose

If they don’t lose, I think they get in. But, I’m not convinced they don’t lose to Pittsburgh, or drop an inexplicable game to somebody random.

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Oct 18, 2009 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look at last week's projections

For details about the liklihood of 10-2 Notre Dame finishing outside of the Top 14. Short answer: 10-2 Notre Dame goes to the BCS. 9-3 Notre Dame does not.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 18, 2009 9:41 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

10-2 Notre Dame will probably end up #17 or so.

They have a miserable computer ranking and there are a lot of 1 loss teams ahead of them they need to unseat. I think the human polls are unconvinced after last second wins and losses throughout. But, it will all be moot. They will lose to Stanford and probably Pitt.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 18, 2009 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too bad

for Purdue and Indiana that they couldn’t eek out some earlier wins. Both of them are dangerous, but it’s too late to salvage the season

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 18, 2009 9:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Although Indiana has a shot if they can beat NW and Purdue. The Hoosiers are the only Big Ten team that would be happy to go to Detroit.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 18, 2009 9:36 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

they might be some of the only people period, happy to go to Detroit

by Lostincali on Oct 18, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't forget CMU

They would love Detroit, plus it’s nicer than Mt Pleasant

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 18, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't give up the ship!

Good attitude, Bama. We’ll see after this weekend. Any bowl game would be gravy; our expectations for this season were very slim.

By the way, I tried some Ro-tel queso dip this weekend. Not bad.

by hoosierdaddynow on Oct 19, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boise?

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Oct 18, 2009 3:00 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Boise State?

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Oct 18, 2009 3:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think that by the end,

undefeated TCU will be close enough in the human polls, and far enough ahead in the computers, to finish ahead of Boise in the BCS standings. Once they do that, Boise won’t have an automatic spot. They won’t get chosen otherwise, like last year.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 18, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, you just said they wouldn't go to a bowl. I disagree. Boise State goes to a bowl before Indiana goes to a bowl. For starters.

That’s an unusual perspective. An undefeated, or maybe 1-loss team, that beat OK a couple of years ago, does not get a bowl.

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Oct 18, 2009 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said what? Where?

I’m only projecting the BCS and Big Ten Bowls. If Boise doesn’t make the BCS, expect the WAC to work a deal so Boise has a good opponent in the Humanitarian Bowl (BYU or Utah would be my guess).

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 18, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He only does the BCS and Big Ten. Boise is obviously going to a bowl.

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 18, 2009 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You may to flip Wisconsin and Ohio State

OSU could lose maybe three more games: Penn State, Michigan and Iowa. Wisconsin could win out.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 18, 2009 6:21 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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