D'entre les Morts - Is Iowa Ohio State 2002, Reincarnate?

About the time Ricky Stanzi sealed Iowa's daring victory Saturday by taking a knee on a lame-duck P.A.T., I got a text message from my cousin Steve. It read: "Iowa is a reincarnation of the 2002 bucks."
It's a flattering comparison for the Hawkeyes. After all, the 2002 Buckeyes are the first and only team to go 14-0 in the history of our sport. They were the epitome of everything that's right -- and wrong -- with the Big Ten; a plodding, plain, and immediately likable rough and tumble crop of underdogs that refused to lose. After a season of nailbiters, and overtime triumphs, the Bucks faced a a defending national champion Hurricane squad with a Heisman finalist quarterback, a Heisman finalist running back and a 34 game winning streak.
Four bone-crushing quarters, and two mesmerizing overtimes later, the scarlet came out on top: 31-24. The win brought the Big Ten its 34th -- and most recent -- National Championship.
That was seven years ago.
Since then the Big Ten is 3-8 in BCS bowls (0-2 in the BCS National Championship). A crown gem in the early part of the decade, the conference has slipped into a funk, as the great giants of the sport fell asleep at the wheel. Strange shifts in parity have substituted crisp autumn leaves and cool November snaps for sweat, julips, and electric September nights in the swamp. Bruising brutes and bloody-noses have been replaced with soft-zones and slow pokes. Or so they would have us believe.
Still, there are signs everywhere that college football's most esteemed conference is on its way back, not the least of which are these Hawkeyes. A powerful Iowa joins perennial patriarchs Ohio State and Penn State at the top of a league that with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan in the wings just might be the deepest in the country. Sure, our ceiling might be just a bit lower than the spires atop the Pac 10, Big 12, and SEC. But none of those leagues are as hotly contested six floors down.
Is Iowa predestined to earn a spot in the BCS National Championship Game? Consider these striking similarities between the Hawkeyes and the 2002 Buckeyes.
- Ohio State faced two out of conference BCS opponents in 2002. One from the Big 12 (Texas Tech) and one from the Pac 10 (Washington State). Iowa faced two out of conference BCS opponents this year. One from the Big 12 (Iowa State) and one from the Pac 10 (Arizona).
- Ohio State rebounded from a 5-3 Big Ten Season in 2001. Iowa is rebounding from a 5-3 Big Ten Season in 2008.
- Ohio State played South Carolina in the Outback Bowl in 2001. Iowa played South Carolina in the Outback Bowl in 2008.
- Ohio State had two more returning starters on defense (7) than offense (5) in 2002. Iowa has two more returning starters on defense (8) than offense (6) in 2009.
- Ohio State returned three veteran offensive linemen (Shane Olivea, Adrien Clark, and Bryce Bishop) in 2002. Iowa returned three veteran offensive linemen (Julian Vandervelde, Kyle Calloway, and Bryan Bulaga) in 2009.
- Ohio State ultimately started a Freshman running back (Maurice Clarett) in 2002. Iowa ultimately started a Freshman running back (Adam Robinson) in 2009.
- The strength of both teams was/is defense.
- Both quarterbacks (Ohio State's Craig Krenzel and Iowa's Ricky Stanzi) had/have comparably modest completion percentages (59.4/57.1).
- Ohio State was ranked Fourth in the BCS Standings heading into Week 9 in 2002. Iowa is ranked Fourth in the BCS Standings heading into Week 9 this season.
- Ohio State won six games by 7 points or less in 2002. Iowa has already won four games by 7 points or less.
- Ohio State came into the BCS National Championship as an underdog in 2002, facing the defending National Champions. If Iowa makes the 2009 BCS National Championship, it would be as an underdog, likely against the defending National Champions.
Now, don't get me wrong. There are plenty of significant diferences between the teams. While both were/are defensive stalwarts, Ohio State's strength in 2002 was the defensive line, and weakness was at cornerback, while Iowa came into the season with holes at defensive tackle, but loaded in the midfield and the secondary.
Furthermore, Iowa's Ricky Stanzi has thrown more interceptions (8) eight games into the season, than Craig Krenzel did in all of 2002 (7). These turnovers could ultimately be the difference between an undefeated and a two loss Iowa.
Ohio State faced its biggest challenge in 2002 in late-November with a visit from No. 12 Michigan. Iowa will have to go on the road in mid-November to face a (presumably) top 15 Ohio State team.
If they can do the impossible, they just might have the credibility in the computers to jump Texas, and meet the winner of the SEC Championship in Pasadena.
But does a Big Ten team really deserve to play for the title against the best the speedy South has to offer? Ask Ohio State, circa 2002, what it has to say about that.
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Comments
Question is
Does Iowa even make it to the National Championship if one of the SEC schools and Texas stay undefeated?
FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!
by 49er16 on Oct 26, 2009 10:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's possible...
But unlikely.
Consider that the Hawkeyes currently rank 1st in five of the six computer polls. (Texas is currently averaging 5th). The human polls are what’s holding them back — as they rank 8th in both. (Texas, by comparsion, is third).
Imagine a situation where at the end of the season the SEC Champion is No. 1, Texas is No. 2, and Iowa is No. 3 in the human polls. With the increased emphasis on the human side, a CPU rank of No. 1 may well be enough for the Hawkeyes to fly over Texas.
That being said, lthough it’s mathematically possible, I still have a hard time imagining an undefeated Longhorn squad shut out of the game — especially, for the second year in a row. The BCS formula is largely premised on a “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” mentality. Something tells me that, push come to shove, some magical algorithm will keep the Longhorns in the No. 2 seat.
After all, even the founding fathers of the BCS know you don’t mess with Texas.
The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Law Buckeye on Oct 26, 2009 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they get to #3 in the human polls, quite possibly
They’re light-years ahead of Texas in the computers at the moment. If the stronger of the SEC candidates loses the title game, the computers could end up with Iowa #1 and Texas #4, which would be enough to overcome a one-spot edge in the polls for Texas.
(This, of course, assumes that the polls behave rationally over the next few weeks. Which, as we all know, is a terrible assumption.)
by SpartanDan on Oct 27, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Iowa wins out...
I think the computers would probably boost the Hawkeyes ahead of an undefeated Texas. Their remaining schedules are similar in strength (whoever wins the north would probably be the equivalent of Minnesota), and Texas’ BCS average is not a lot better than the Hawks right now. If Arizona, PSU, and MSU finish strong it could solidify the Hawks as the number one team with the computers, and they would likely leapfrog Texas if they make it to 3 in the human polls.
Right??
by fugeeu on Oct 27, 2009 4:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that all of the computers have Iowa at #1 at the moment is a good sign if they’re going to overtake Texas. As the computer with the highest and lowest standing for each team is thrown out, Iowa should be able to stand fast in the machines at #1 or 2, over Texas in both cases. The human polls are not unanimous though, and there will likely be some pollsters who are Big 10 homers and willing to rank Iowa #1 for getting through the harsh road slog they’d have to go through.
If Iowa did pass Texas and beat the SEC champion in the title game while Texas was undefeated, though, you can expect that the AP would throw a sympathy national title to the Whiny Orange nation as compensation for getting screwed over two years in a row.
A fanbase like Texas’ getting screwed over would certainly help drum up playoff support, though, and that’s what we all want in the end. So in the interest of perfect chaos, the word is fight fight fight for Iowa.
by HawkeyedFrog on Oct 27, 2009 7:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
another scenario
Assume Iowa and Texas win out. Best case scenario, I would think, is for the SEC champion to have 1 loss.
Florida’s most likely possibilities for a loss are Georgia, @ SCarolina, and FSU. Frankly, their remaining schedule is not that intimidating. They can still lose a game and be assured of the SEC Championship berth.
Alabama still has LSU and @ Auburn. If LSU wins, they go to the SEC championship over Alabama. If LSU then beats Florida, you have a 1-loss SEC champion.
The humans couldn’t possibly justify Florida in the title game coming off a loss (right??), especially if both Texas and Iowa are undefeated. LSU seems far enough back right now to not be a factor, especially with games against Tulane and LaTech remaining, which will hurt their computer scores.
by georgiablue on Oct 27, 2009 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think LSU could have a shot.
Beating Alabama and Florida would ensure them a top 3 spot in the human polls, and may even be enough to move them past Iowa in the computers. I would like to believe that a 1-loss LSU would not jump Iowa for a shot at the MNC, but I think it may just be possible.
My guess is that Iowa won’t get any higher than 5 in the Harris/Coaches’ polls if Iowa, LSU, USC, and Texas all win out. Texas would top the polls and some combination of LSU/USC would be 2-3, an undefeated TCU could slip into 4th, while Iowa takes 5th. Cincinnati would definitely threaten the top 5, as well, and could even take Iowa’s spot.
Unless Iowa wins big at OSU, they’re probably going to need Oregon (or, better yet, Arizona) to keep USC out of consideration. Iowa also needs Florida to take the SEC, because ’Bama’s schedule could steal computer points. At this point, Iowa has to be considered a long shot, but they’ve definitely got the inside track when compared with Cincinnati and the mid-majors.
by The Mexican't on Oct 27, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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