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The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 9

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This is a scary week for the site managers.  We're deadlocked in a three way tie.  Someone's bound to get buried...

1. PURDUE at WISCONSIN, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ESPN 2

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts WISCONSIN by 7

It is officially "Road Favorites" week. You've got an intriguing decision to make here: Do you listen to Vegas and pick Wisky by a touch, believing the improved Boilers can keep this game close on the road? Do you have faith that Joey Elliot and his three big time playmakers (Bolden, Smith, Valentin) will dial up enough firepower to make this game come down to the fourth quarter? Or should Vegas be disregarded with the thought that Camp Randall and a greatly improved Badger defense will just be too much for Purdue? Will you disregard Purdue's 0 turnover performance v. OSU as an aberration, knowing the Boilermakers will be back to their old ways? I'll follow Vegas here; Purdue's O-Line has been excellent of late, but Wisconsin truly brings speed (Schofield) and smash mouth (everyone else) together for the win.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts WISCONSIN by 7

This game comes down to who can establish the run.  Sure, Purdue needs the kind of spacial passing scheme it employed against Ohio State to sustain drives on the Badgers, but what the Boilermakers really want to do here is bleed the clock on a Wisconsin offense that's not exactly quick strike.  To that end, Ralph Bolden is quietly putting together a 1,000 yard season for the Boilermakers.  That being said, Purdue has to deal with a power I-Form back in John Clay, something Ohio State didn't have.  I think Clay moves the chains, wearing down Purdue's defense, and a few inopportune turnovers keep a well-rested Badger's team in the driver's seat.


2. MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS, 3:30 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 10

Will people actually pick Illinois here? If they do, it speaks volumes about the struggling Wolverines. In our annual power poll, Michigan is #6, a sad referendum on the Big Ten frankly...I had them at #8 in my individual list. MSU and PSU quickly found out how to slow Michigan (make them throw!), but Illinois has had a tough time making any Big Ten offenses uncomfortable. It's not a lack of effort - the defense showed guts against MSU and Purdue. It's more of a momentum/talent issue. When a season is so obviously done, younger players get playing time, coaches run odd substitution patterns, and the focus is less on winning games than having "good game experiences." Combine this with the injuries and the quarterback carousel, and you know why picking against the Illini big is never a bad deal, even at home.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 10

Sure, Michigan was held to 10 points last week -- but they were up against a Penn State defense that's getting more and more in sync as the year develops.  It's also clear that injuries are taking their toll on the small-framed athletes that play Wolverine skill positions.  The groan you hear is the Michigan faithful, recognizing that despite being light years from 2008's rubber rodents, this team is still one of the worst the school has fielded in four decades.  They need a boost in morale, and having this no-confidence Illini club on the schedule is just what the doctor ordered.

Star-divide

3. MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), Big Ten Network

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 14

The Spartans are rightfully downtrodden after last weeks near upset. Will they come out fired up or slothful? I don't think it matters. Simple schematic analysis of the Mini Offense versus the Spartan Defense says everything you need to know. Mini cannot throw the ball effectively against anyone, so they revert to the run game. This tendency will be even more pronounced with the loss of Eric Decker. On the opposite site of the ball, the Spartans can stop almost any run game, thanks to a solid LB corps and a hard working front four. You see where this is going?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

For 58 minutes last week the Spartans showed they can hold down the fort.  Their reward for giving up the game with 2 seconds left?  They get to play a Minnesota team that is without an identity behind center and is without its top wide receiver (Eric Decker).  Whether or not MarQueis Gray sees the field en mass, I think Greg jones, and a fiery Michigan State mid-field contain a pop-rocks Minnesota offense.  And while there's almost certainly no Big Ten title in the Spartan's immediate future, they can prove that they're an upper tier team.  Minnesota, not so much.


4. No. 3 TEXAS at No. 14 OKLAHOMA STATE, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts TEXAS by 10

Vegas loves Texas on the road, giving the Longhorns 10 points. I don't believe in this Texas team, they aren't dominating with the same panache as last year, plus The Great Golden Calf (get it? Colt? has a pick in each game this year. But the defense has been dominant, with athletes flying all over the place. So my choice is between: 1) Ignore Vegas by picking a 14 point margin, knowing that Mack Brown will gameplan effectively on defense (just like Oklahoma) and find ways to score enough to pull away in the third quarter. 2) Play this close to the vest, picking Texas by 7 and believing that Zac Robinson, spurred on by his home crowd, can scare up a couple touchdown drives to keep the suspense going late. I'll cut it in the middle - it's still Texas and T. Boone Pickens can only do so much to slow McCoy and Sergio Kindle.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts TEXAS by 10

While Texas is far from perfect, the Longhorns showed that they can score fast and at will against Missouri.  My opinion of Oklahoma State is still stained by their inexplicable loss to Houston, and the suspension of Dez Bryant.  This game comes down to which first half Texas team shows up: the one that slow danced with Wyoming, Colorado, and Oklahoma, or the one that piledrove the Tigers last week.  If Colt and Co. let the Cowboy defense get set, and the crowd stay in the game this one could turn out like Texas Tech last year.  Then again, when have we actually gotten what we wanted this season?


5. No. 5 USC at No. 10 OREGON, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts OREGON by 7

Spread v. SoCal Toughness. Autzen v. Barkley's Sanity. One Pac 10 title on the line. Why would you bet against Oregon at home? Why have you bought into the Pete Carroll myth so easily?

I'm going to tell you something. When I pick these games each week, I do two things. First, I decide how everyone else will pick the game. Second, I close my eyes and imagine how this game should go. So here goes: I think you all fear USC's toughness and athleticism, so I think people will go with USC by 7 probably across the board. With this in mind, I try to imagine a situation where USC could lose this game. That's easily done - Oregon scores early on a quick strike drive, USC counters with a methodical drive, and this becomes a classic tit for tat showdown.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts USC by 10

Upsets are about as common this year as Ohio State touchdown drives.  But, if there were ever a game I'd love to be wrong about, it's this one.  It's no secret: I'm sick of seeing cardinal and gold in the Rose Bowl.  I'm sick of seeing a Pac 10 race flatter than a two day old open Miller Lite.  I'm sick of seeing conference minnows (Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington) nibble at Pete Carroll's dynasty, while the so-called warriors (Cal, Oregon, Arizona State) wet the bed.  Still, I can't erase the memory of watching a disoriented Oregon team get disemboweled on the blue turf.  All the echoes of Autzen won't bury that doubt.  No matter how many times you change your uniform, you're still sitting ducks...

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Whew

So glad I was wrong about the Sparty/Hawkeye game last week. I’m rooting for both home dogs in the non-con games. Here’s hoping that at least one of them can come through.

Wisconsin by 11
Michigan by 14
Michigan State by 8
Oklahoma State by 8
USC by 15

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 29, 2009 11:15 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll be Picking This Week

Did get a chance to enter these last week when I was on the road.

Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 21
Michigan State by 17
Texas by 7
Oregon by 3

They took the bar, the whole fucking bar!

by recoveringfratguy on Oct 29, 2009 11:58 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

One Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Neither wind, nor snow, nor three days worth of coughing, fever, and runny noses shall prevent me from delivering my picks…

Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 14
Mich St by 7
OKST by 3
USC by 7

Courting mediocrity since 1964.

by lakeeriemonstar on Oct 29, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Today is a 7's fest

Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 7
State by 7
Texas by 7
Oregon by 3

(See if you subtract the last pick from the first pick you get 7 again!)

by hmlee on Oct 29, 2009 12:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

im done trying, just what I want from now on

Wisconsin by 14
Michigan by 14
State by 14
Ok. St. by 14
Oregon by 14

Its a funny story actually.

by Wad on Oct 29, 2009 1:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

picks

Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 20
Mich St by 10
Texas by 17
Oregon by 7

by DMAN2303 on Oct 29, 2009 1:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This is the point where apathy kicks in ...

Wisky by 7
UM by 10
STATE by 10
Horns by 7
Ducks by 3

Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss. -- Lou Mannheim, Wall Street

by ChiSpartan on Oct 29, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Go Ducks

Everyones on board in Autzen, hell yeah.

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ya know, I love Columbus...Oh shit...Kick me in the fucking face. I meant, I love Ann Arbor."

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 29, 2009 4:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I was thisclose to staying in contention. Stupid, ongoing picks!

PU @ Wisky: Wisky by 17.

Michigan @ Illinois: UM by 16.

MSU @ Minny: MSU by 20.

UT @ OSU: OSU by 3.

USC @ Oregon: Oregon by 10.

NOTE: These picks have zero to do with who I think will win, and are merely a reflection on who I HOPE wins. USC losing means Iowa still has a chance at the NC, and UT losing puts Iowa in the driver’s seat. Neither will happen, but I can hope.

by imadirtyoldman on Oct 29, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's hoping for some upsets (outside of the B10)

We’ll see.

Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 17
Michigan State by 10
Oklahoma State by 1
Oregon by 3

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 29, 2009 5:40 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m mired midpack, so these no longer matter, although I continue to check my progress. Definition of insanity, right? Doing the same thing but expecting a different result.

1) Purdue @ Wiscy – Wisconsin by 14
2) UM @ IL – Michigan by 21
3) MSU @ Minny – Michigan State by 10
4) UT @ totherOSU – UT by 10
5) USC @ Oregon – Oregon by 3

by txhawkeye on Oct 29, 2009 6:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Apparently I’m about as good at making these predictions as Zook is at winning games this year. Well here’s another foray into failure…

Purdue by 7
Michigan by 17
MSU by 13
Tejas by 10
USC by 10

by Estrada on Oct 29, 2009 7:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The other half of BamaHawkeye here just to say, “I told you the Hawks would win against Sparty.” We didn’t name the dog Kinnick for nothing.

by Bama Hawk Girl on Oct 29, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

the dog is named Kinnick?

Fantastic. That’s a mouthful to holler…What’s the nickname there, Kin? K? K-Money?

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ya know, I love Columbus...Oh shit...Kick me in the fucking face. I meant, I love Ann Arbor."

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 29, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

duh

of course…stupid me

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ya know, I love Columbus...Oh shit...Kick me in the fucking face. I meant, I love Ann Arbor."

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 29, 2009 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my dog is named Kinnick as well

it actually rolls of the tongue much easier than you would think.

by SeattleHawkeye on Oct 30, 2009 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

two syallables

doesn’t strike me as very difficult in the first place

" Do you guys know people like you are the reason I wouldn’t come on for exstended periods of time. You rui the baseball blogging expieriance."
by trademaker on May 30, 2009 10:31 PM PDT

by U-God on Oct 30, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wisconsin by 14 (the Badgers take care of the ball too well to lose to a turnover-prone Boilers team)
Michigan by 31 (there is no cure for what ails you like playing Illinois)
MSU by 24 (Minny’s offense minus Decker … is it possible to score negative points?)
Texas by 7 (OkSt has no scalps of note on the wall, although given Oklahoma’s struggles this year one could say the same of Texas)
Oregon by 4 (for the first time in a long time, there’s a Pac-10 team that might actually be better than USC instead of one that will catch them off guard)

by SpartanDan on Oct 29, 2009 8:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A few weeks after getting "Worst Week Ever" ...

… I think I just broke “Worst Pick Ever”. Has anyone been off on the margin by 56 points before?

by SpartanDan on Nov 1, 2009 1:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think that's a new record...

Thanks for owning it.

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Law Buckeye on Nov 1, 2009 6:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm.

Wisco by 10
Michigan by 3
Sparty by 10
Texas by 13
Oregon by 10

by RossWB on Oct 30, 2009 1:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sold on any of these (except Sparty)

Sconnies by 4. I think Purdue keeps it close.
Michigan by 7
Sparty by 10
OK St. by 3. Making a mess of the BCS.
Oregon by 7.

by hoosierdaddynow on Oct 30, 2009 6:27 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

movin on up!

Wisc by 14
Michigan by 17
MSU by 13
Texas by 6
USC by 5

"I'm driven by greatness" - Derrick Williams

by HookMania on Oct 30, 2009 6:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Week 9

Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 21
Michigan State by 14
Texas by 14
USC by 7

by JRose on Oct 30, 2009 8:39 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Why do I bother with this?

Wisky by 10
Michigan by 7
’Sota by 4
Tejas by 10
Oregon by 3

"Don't you want a little taste of the glory... see what it tastes like?"

by jerdogg1 on Oct 30, 2009 9:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

movin on up

Wisconsin by 13
Michigan by 21
Michigan State by 10
Texas by 10 (even though I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY want Oklahoma St. to win.)
Oregon by 7

by burncruisin on Oct 30, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

when do we get your 500 words burncruisin

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ya know, I love Columbus...Oh shit...Kick me in the fucking face. I meant, I love Ann Arbor."

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 30, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

very soon. sorry.

been slackin. plan to finish it up tomorrow.

by burncruisin on Oct 31, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Insert pithy comment here

Wisconsin by 6
Michigan by 14
Michigan State by 13
Texas by 17
Oregon by 6

by gophersports on Oct 30, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

U-G-L-Y

It just keeps getting worse and worse. I need to pick it up this week, so here’s my shot:

Wisky by 4
Michigan by 10
MSU by 14
Texas by 17
Oregon by 3

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Oct 30, 2009 4:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

tryin to maintain

Wisky by 10
Michigan by 10
MSU by 7
Texas by 7
Oregon by 4

by SeattleHawkeye on Oct 30, 2009 4:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't really feel good about any of these...

Purdue by 3
Michigan by 17
Michigan State by 10
Oklahoma Stateby 7
Oregon by 13

by Steel Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2009 10:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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