2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 9

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 1, 2009 11:37 AM CST in Bowl Projections Comment 33 comments

After nine weeks of football, you start to see the slotting occur. There may be some surprises yet, and there is a bunch of losing that will happen before we get to the BCS Championship Game. But at this point, these can be true projections and not just guesses.

Saturday night cleared up a couple of big things. The Big 12 South came into sharp focus with Texas's dominating win. Barring something completely unforeseen (and I don't mean an injury to Colt McCoy; I mean like an asteroid wiping out Austin and all of its inhabitants), Texas will win the Big 12 South. Only slightly less certain is that they will win it with a 12-0 record, crush the crappy team that emerges from the Big 12 North, and play in the BCS Championship Game.

Hilary celebrates a Wisconsin win and mourns Northwestern's loss to Penn State...

A recap of Week 9 in the Big Ten, where we attempt to make sense of the Iowa game..

Two time zones west, the Pac-10 race also looks much clearer now. Oregon's win gives them, a two game lead over USC, and unless Arizona can work a three way tie with the Ducks and Trojans (possible, though unlikely) at 7-2 in conference, USC's reign has ended in the Pac-10.

Bilde_medium

Could Iowa bring back the old winged uniforms for a feathered Rose Bowl?

How does this impact the BCS At Large spots? First, unless Texas loses in the Big 12 Championship game, that league is only getting one bid this year. Second, Virginia Tech's head-shaking loss to North Carolina really diminishes the likelihood of two bids from the ACC. 10-2 USC may be in play, especially if Notre Dame loses one more. For now, I see USC missing the BCS for the first time since 2001. And now, to the projections.

Remember the rules.

These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			The only intrigue will be if it comes down to an undefeated Iowa or Cincinnati versus a one-loss SEC team. For now, I still think that Florida and Alabama will both be undefeated in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
			Right now, it looks like a Tech/Clemson battle for the ACC title. Don't sleep on the Tigers. They almost beat Georgia Tech last time. Penn State needs to win out to guarantee a BCS spot. I think that they will.
			I've been on TCU since the first projections. They are a legitimate Top 10 team. Notre Dame has to win out, including games at Pitt and at Stanford. That looks harder now than it did at the beginning of the season.
			Again, this will be the SEC Championship Game loser against the Big East winner. It may end up being one of the most interesting games of the season.
			If Penn State beats Ohio State this weekend, Iowa only needs to win their home games against Northwestern and Minnesota to get here. If the Buckeyes win, Iowa will need to beat Ohio State, or see Michigan do it to end the season.
			The Capital One has to be chomping at the bit for this matchup. They haven't had the Buckeyes this decade, and have only had LSU after the 2004 season.
			The Outback is most upset that Michigan got Zooked. Unless Michigan wins out to get to 8-4 (which would include a win over Wisconsin), I don't think that Wisconsin gets jumped. It's possible that 8-4 Ole Miss or Auburn gets chosen for this slot instead of a Gamecock return trip.
			How much will Rich Rodriguez watch Spiller and wish that he had him in the read option offense?
			OK Gophers, here's your chance. You can go to the best bowl game in almost 50 years if you beat Illinois and South Dakota State at home. Northwestern and Michigan State look to top out at 6-6, which means that they couldn't be picked ahead of you. You might get bumped up one more if Michigan can't find a 7th win. The winner of the Big 12 North can fall no lower than this bowl.
			Win 7 games, and Sparty moves up a spot in the pecking order.
			Win 7 games, and Northwestern moves up a spot in the pecking order.
			This year, if you can't get to six wins, you can expect to be On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored bu Ro*Tel!). Indiana and Purdue waded deeper into the cheese with their losses on Saturday. Illinois is just having fun being a spoiler.

And now, we add the other 23 bowl games...




			Las Vegas will be happy to have the BYU fans every year, thank you.
			I can only assume that San Diego State's turn around is due to the impressive job that Chuck Long has done as the Asst. to the Traveling Secretary.

			I suspect that they'll choose Bobby Bowden against his old team over a rematch of last year's game.
			As a small private school with a tiny (relative) alumni base, BC will always be "underseeded" as a bowl team.
			Nashville would love this matchup.
			Ar-kansas versus Kansas. Could be a good game to watch.
			If C-USA can get a sixth team eligible, they fill the spot that Army can't. It's going to be a tough one for UCF. Duke needs one win to get here.
			I expect that the Mountain West will send one of its three best teams here to face the Broncos. I also expect that if Boise State goes to the BCS, Idaho will slide in here.
			With their sixth win, Navy became the first team to lock up their bid.
			The Holiday Bowl has waited and waited for their chance to get the Trojans in San Diego.


			If Auburn can get to 8-4 by beating either Georgia or Alabama, I expect that they'll go to the Cotton Bowl. There is also a shot that they could be taken over a second consecutive trip by South Carolina to the Outback.
			The Gator Bowl is hoping that Notre Dame loses one more game. You don't think that they wouldn't like to start printing "Catholics vs. Convicts" T-Shirts?
			It is still weird to see Temple in a bowl game.

			I expect OU to beat the Cowpokes. The Cotton Bowl will gladly take 9-3 Oklahoma over 9-3 Oklahoma State.
			Great matchup for the C-USA champion.
			If Iowa State can get that 6th win, I expect them to get a bid somewhere. Right now, they fill a spot that the ACC can't.

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Comments

Question

A 12-0 BSU team either goes to the BCS or the Humanitarian?

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ya know, I love Columbus...Oh shit...Kick me in the fucking face. I meant, I love Ann Arbor."

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 1, 2009 12:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think so

There is nowhere for them to go this year. The only reason that they had the good matchup last year was because the Pac-10 couldn’t fill all of it’s slots. That’s not the case this year.

One of the bad things that has happened with the bowl shuffling is that the league champs from the smaller leagues don’t get good berths. It would be nice to see Mountain West champ play the third team from the Big 12…for the WAC champ to face the third team from the Pac-10. As it is, if they don’t make the BCS, they get meh matchups in meh bowls.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 1, 2009 12:54 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't the Champs Sports Bowl take the #4 BT team?

And Michigan is currently 1-4 in conference play? They win out and total meltdowns by Minny, NW, Wisky, and MSU?

Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team

by carmen_fanzone on Nov 1, 2009 1:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

#4 choice

Not 4th place team. If Michigan has seven wins, they will be chosen before all of those teams. And conference standings have very little to do with the selections.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 1, 2009 1:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, Michigan fans are praying for a berth in the Motor City/Pizza Pizza Bowl.

by JC314 on Nov 1, 2009 1:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Projecting Michigan for seven wins seems generous

with the way they’ve been playing the last two weeks.

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 12:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have them beating Wisconsin

but they have done nothing in their five Big Ten games to give me confidence that they can do that.

Minnesota, if they don’t choke on opportunity, could move up to a mandatory 5th pick in the Big Ten pecking order. Weird…

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 9:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Does a 7-5 Minnesota team have to get selected ahead of a 6-6 Michigan team by the Alamo Bowl?

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

I’m double checking, but the rule is that all teams with winning records must be selected before 6-6 teams. It is not bowls must ensure that there is room for all teams with winning records to go to a bowl.

It’s why Notre Dame couldn’t be selected by the Gator last year (even thought the bowl petitioned the NCAA for an exemption).

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Correct

In order to be eligible, a team must not have a losing record in the FBS. If a school plays 12 games, they must have at least six wins to qualify. If a school plays 13 games, they must then have at least seven wins to qualify. Additionally, bowls may not tender a bid to any team with a 6-6 record as long as there are eligible seven-win teams to choose.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A-ha.

Although, technically, this situation would arise with the Champs Sports Bowl this year, right? Since they pick before the Alamo Bowl.

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 2:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Big 12 wants to change rule re: how 6-6 teams are treated

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It will go through

But it shouldn’t.

Who wins? The Nebraskas, Michigans, and Alabamas of the world that have a bad year and wind up at 6-6.

Who loses? The Boston Colleges, Baylors, Northwesterns, and Wake Forests of the world who have a good year and will see less reward for it.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Bama loses

to LSU. Which blows this whole thing to pieces. Well, it does if they then beat Florida in the SEC Champ game. If that were to happen, does a one loss LSU, who will have beaten #2 Bama then #1 Gators bypass unbeaten teams like Cinncy and Iowa (assuming the finish unbeaten? Most pontificators say yes.

Or answer this…if Texas loses inexplicably. And the above happens. But, Iowa goes undefeated and so does TCU, Cinncy and Boise…and Oregon goes undefeated. Who plays for all the marbles then?

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Nov 1, 2009 3:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Illinois and Maryland

as the computers explode.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 1, 2009 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa and Cinci

Next question. Only one undefeated BCS conference team has ever missed the title game. There were three undefeated BCS conference teams that year. If there are only two, they will play in the title game. Even if it’s Iowa and Cinci. Heck, even if it were Duke and Baylor.

by drothgery on Nov 1, 2009 6:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

After looking at BCS

I think if LSU beats Bama then Iowa is a Florida loss in SEC champ game away from mNC game. Unless, Iowa loses a game of course. Iowa will be only team to beat 4 BCS ranked teams. Florida, for example, will have beaten two if they win out.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Nov 1, 2009 8:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Duke actually needs 2 wins to be bowl eligible

One of their wins is over a team that recently moved up from D-II and doesn’t have enough scholarships to be officially D-I-AA, so one of their wins doesn’t count to bowl eligibility.

by Yabbs on Nov 1, 2009 10:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I guess UNC has the same deal too

by Yabbs on Nov 1, 2009 10:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It really does start to sink in that there are too many bowl games

when you see SMU and Wyoming paired up in one. Holy non-existent TV ratings, Batman.

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 12:02 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I watch 'em

I love the weirdo matchups, I love the forced joy by the ESPN announcers, I love seeing teams I never see, I love the Bowls Pick Em competition we do…Of course mostly I just love the fact that football season is still going….

And I would sacrifice it all if we just had a nice playoff format to finish the season…

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ricky Stanzi is to interceptions as Journey is to 80s rock ballads...inextricably linked."

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 2, 2009 1:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the idea of the games

but I know that some of those match-ups I would not watch for more than 15-20 minutes unless it was a really compelling finish or something.

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 6:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

do you think the Fiesta would rather have Cincinnati than TCU? Watching the highlights for the TCU game this weekend, it was absolutely shocking how poor the attendance appeared to be, which can’t boost their cause. Not to mention the fact that they seem to play over half their games on Versus or The MTN — not exactly strong sources of exposure there.

Granted, Cincinnati isn’t exactly ideal, either (I don’t think they brought all that many people down to the Orange Bowl last year), but I could see an argument for them as the lesser of two evils here, since they play in a major conference and have been featured more on national TV like ESPN this year. And I don’t know if the bowl selection committees take these factors into account at all, but Cincy-Notre Dame would probably be a more attractive game in terms of offensive style (both high-powered passing attacks) and star power (Jimmy Clausen v. Tony Pike).

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 6:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Style does matter

I have presumed that if the choice is between two teams that do not have a history of traveling well, the safer bet is the one that is closer. If Notre Dame is the pick, I would expect that the Fiesta may end up choosing whichever school finished higher in the BCS standings. Notre Dame will bring enough fans (and anti-fans) to the TV sets. They also travel very well.

This is also why the Fiesta will think long and hard about matching up USC and Cincy/TCU. USC doesn’t travel well at all. They didn’t travel well for their National Championship game in Miami, their Orange Bowl, and any game that is further away from Los Angeles than Pasadena. The Fiesta would have to close the upper deck if it was USC and the small alumni base of TCU.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 8:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

USC fans

Of course they don’t travel well. Outside of Los Angeles, there really aren’t any fans of USC at all. And the “fans” in LA are only into the team so long as USC is winning. The second USC slips up, the fans will abandon them. LA just isn’t a sports town (except Lakers) unless their team is winning.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Nov 2, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I seriously doubt LA fans would follow the Lakers if they weren’t winning (for a potential case study: the Clippers).

by Estrada on Nov 2, 2009 9:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, that all makes sense.

It strikes me that there’s a very good chance that the Fiesta will get either Notre Dame or Penn State, either of which would be a good anchor team for them. The Sugar Bowl is obviously going to take the Bama/Florida loser to replace the SEC Champion they lose to the National Championship Game. If Texas is the other team in the MNC, the Fiesta will likely take either Notre Dame (first choice if eligible) or Penn State (second choice if eligible).

The apocalypse scenario for the Fiesta is if Texas gets upset in the Big 12 Championship Game and they get stuck with whoever the Big 12 North champ is (not too bad if it’s Nebraska; could be pretty lousy if it’s anyone else). Plus, it’s possible that both Penn State (to the Rose Bowl if Iowa slides into the MNC to replace Texas) and Notre Dame (to the Orange Bowl that gets to pick before the Fiesta) would be off the table, leaving them with either Cincy or TCU to slot in opposite the Big 12 North champ.

If Boise State can get back ahead of TCU, do you think the Fiesta would take them over Cincy? They seemed to travel decently to the game against Oklahoma a few years back and from a ratings standpoint they’re probably a push with Cincy.

by RossWB on Nov 2, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would think

the Fiesta would take Boise over Cincy. I think that the Big East champ is going to the Sugar Bowl. I suspect that will be the least attractive (from a bowl’s perspective) of the teams selected.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 2, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Penn State might, these days

be a better draw. They travel like maniacs and will sell their allotment. ND may get more walk-up ticket buys, and a ratings point higher in TV, but the safer play might be Penn State. Just a thought.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Nov 3, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ISU in GMAC?

I suppose any bowl game should be a “win” for ISU this year, but I really hope it’s not against a Northern Illinois team that has become one of our non-conference opponents about 40% of recent seasons.

Of course, the most interesting matchup for ISU would be an Independence bowl berth against Auburn, who Chizik bolted for last year (and upon arriving, fired all the assistants, including current ISU head coach Paul Rhoads.)

Of course, there’s a lot off football to be played yet. Should be damn interesting to see how it plays out.

"I am so proud to be your coach." -Paul Rhoads

by CyHawk on Nov 2, 2009 10:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs