2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 13

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 29, 2009 1:29 AM CST in Bowl Projections Comment 26 comments

Everything is clear. Some things are clear as crystal. Others are as clear as mud. But make no mistake, the situation is clear.

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TCU will go to the BCS. The BCS Championship? Only with a couple of upset losses.

On the crystal side, the SEC Champ will play Texas, Cincinnati, or TCU in the BCS Championship Game. I think that's the order, too. If Texas beats Nebraska, they'll go. If not, Cincy is next in line. After playing the Pitt, they'll move ahead of TCU in the standings. Should the Bearcats fall to the Panthers, I think TCU gets their chance. I do not see a repeat of the SEC Championship game. Not with one viable undefeated team in the clubhouse and two more approaching 18. All in all, the 10 BCS teams are pretty safe bets. I've mentioned some alternatives, but I think that there are only 15 teams in play for the 10 spots.On the mud side, look at the SEC after the top 4 teams are placed. That's right, six 7-5 teams.

This Week's Articles

JerDogg finally admits that Minnesota just ain't that good.

Graham ranks the Big Ten quarterbacks for their 2009 performance.

Greg discusses the future of Tate Forcier and moving Denard Robinson to WR.

Good luck making any sense of it. I took my best shot, but you can feel free to speculate in a different direction. If you're counting, there are four open bowl spots for at large teams. 9 win MTSU and 7 win Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will take three of the spots. That leaves room for one 6-6 team to go to Mobile, Alabama to play the top choice from the MAC. My guess is that it's UCLA.

Full projections of all of the Big Ten, BCS, and every other bowl game after the jump.

Remember the rules.

These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			The SEC Champion will finish Number 1 in the BCS. Texas will finish #2 if they beat the Huskers. If they lose, Cincinnati will finish #2 with a win over PItt. If Texas and Cincy lose, TCU will slide into the number two spot.
			Beware of Clemson. Aren't they most dangerous after losing a game they have no business dropping? If Clemson wins the ACC, the Orange Bowl will likely take Cincinnati over a regular season rematch.
			Oklahoma State's loss means that the second Big Ten BCS team will be in Arizona, not Florida. If the Huskers upset Texas, Nebraska will be here, Texas will be selected by the Orange, and the Fiesta will still get a Big Ten team (and Boise will be left out). And yes, it very well could be Penn State over Iowa. If it was the Orange making the decision, it probably would be. But I'm still thinking that the Fiesta goes black and gold (and $green$).
			The only way that this isn't the SEC Runner-Up versus the Big East Champ is if Clemson or Nebraska pulls the upset.
			Ohio State has punched their ticket. The winner of Oregon/Oregon State will do the same. It says here that the Ducks win and head to Pasadena.
			LSU slips back into Orlando after Ole MIss lays an Egg against Mississippi State. From the Big Ten, this will be the loser of the behind the scenes battle between Iowa and Penn State.
			Is there any chance that this could be Northwestern? Maybe if Wisconsin loses at Hawaii, but I still have a hard time seeing the Wildcats winning that tiebreaker. Picking Tennessee here establishes them as the most desirable of the SEC's 7-5 mob.
			I think Clemson gets this bid after Virginia Tech and Miami.
			Yes, I think that 7-5 Oklahoma is selected over 8-win Missouri and Texas Tech. If good-MSU and good-OU show up, this could be a great game. If one of the schools brings their bad squad, it could get ugly.
			I don't see this matchup going well for the Gophers. Then again, if it was OU or Texas Tech, I don't know that it would go much better.
			Another Big Ten-less Motor City Bowl.
			When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

			Kudos to Wyoming for getting bowl eligible.
			The bowl will want a Florida connection if it can get it.
			Troy has clinched their trip back to New Orleans. ECU makes for a great matchup.
			BYU makes their 122nd consecutive trip to Las Vegas. Oregon State will be a great match for them there.
			I expect the Mountain West to arrange their alignment to give their big three the best games possible.
			Both teams say that they'll play "anytime, anywhere." Time to prove it.
			This will be Pitt or West Virginia from the Big East. For the second year in a row, Tar Heel fans should fill the seats.
			Bowden's last stand in that hotbed of college football --- San Francisco?
			Boston College is always a tough out in a bowl game. This should be no exception.
			Independence Bowl selects its Big 12 team ahead of the Texas Bowl this year. I think they take the team that gave Texas a battle over the team that beat Nebraska. My guess is that it's a choice between Kentucky and South Carolina on the SEC side.
			If Army defeats Navy in two weeks, they'll replace Marshall.
			Idaho is happy enough to go bowling. I'm sure that staying close to home is all right with them.
			Navy has clinched this bid. On the Big 12 side, it will be whoever is left between Iowa State and Texas A&M.
			Could the Cotton take Nebraska over Oklahoma State? Yes. Especially if the Huskers show well in a loss to Texas.
			The Ponies are another team that won't mind the quick commute for the bowl game.
			Should be a fun game.
			Georgia brings the crowd, while Miami brings the sizzle.
			It's an old fashioned Big East battle. Notre Dame's 6th loss means that the Gator Bowl can't pick the Irish. My guess is that West Virginia will head to Jacksonville if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh (and the Mountaineers beat Rutgers). If the Panthers win, Cincy heads here.
			Still weird to see Temple in a bowl.
			I've got South Carolina as the last choice out of the SEC. It has as much to do with geography as anything else.
			Yes, this could be Nebraska over Okie State. I suppose that one of those seven win SEC teams could be chosen here too. When push comes to shove, I think that the teams with the best records get chosen.
			Think that Arkansas will bring some fans to Memphis? I have Houston beating ECU. The C-USA champ automatically goes here.
			GMAC gets first choice from the MAC. Not champion, first choice. I project that's CMU, regardless of what happens elsewhere. It looks like it will come down to UCLA or Notre Dame to fill an empty ACC slot With the firing/hiring going on in South Bend, I expect the Irish to decline a bid.

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Comments

Bowl Projections

Hey Bama Hawkeye, good job regarding your bowl projections but I saw a couple of projections that are incorrect.

1. The first projection I noticed that was incorrect was the BCS Championship game. You were correct in noting that the SEC champion will be in the game but you mistakenly wrote that Alabama would be that team. The BCS Championship game will be between Florida and Texas. Alabama will not beat Florida in the SEC championship game next week.

2. With that said, Alabama will play Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl.

3. In the Gator Bowl, you have Virginia Tech playing West Virginia. Since the Gator Bowl has the second pick out of the Big East with Notre Dame ineligible. The second pick out of the Big East will be Pittsburgh as they will finish second in the Big East after they lose to Cincinnati next week. So this game will be played between VT and Pitt.

4. The Meneike Car Care Bowl will have the the third pick out of the Big East and that will be Rutgers. Rutgers plays West Virginia at home next Saturday and I believe they will beat West Virginia and finish third in the Big East with a 4 – 3 conference record (9 – 3 overall) with the tiebreaker over West Virginia who will finish with the same conference record and 8 – 4 overall. West Virginia played in the Meineke Car Care Bowl last year and they will not be selected to the same bowl 2 years in a row, playing the same team for that matter (North Carolina).

5. West Virginia will play in the International Bowl

by NJWizard on Nov 29, 2009 5:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

We can agree

to disagree on some of those.

I would advise you, though, that things like conference standings and head-to-head victories matter very little. Especially when teams are within a game of each other in the standings, things like ticket sales and TV ratings will matter quite a bit more. In the Big East, West Virginia does the best job getting its fans to go to bowl games. That wins them a lot of tiebreakers.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 29, 2009 6:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Big East scenarios

Bama Hawkeye,

Agreed. WVU wins tiebreakers in minor bowls due to their legendary travel status. They will get the Gator or Meineke based on this, regardless whether they beat RU.

The “leftover” bowls in the Big East (Papa John, International, St Pete) will likely get populated by RU, UConn, and USF. Here is where your selections might be off (but who really cares?). RU has gone to the Papa John last year and the International two years ago. In NJ the talk is if they don’t make the Meineke there will likely be some swapping and they will go to the St. Pete. RU will have no interest in playing Temple in any event. This may happen even if they beat WVU Dec 5 – because WVU will probably go to the Meineke at 8-4 over 9-3 RU anyway based on your correct reasoning – seats and eyeballs.

So I am guessing RU gets the St Pete, Uconn gets the International, and USF gets the best opponent available at the Papa John. This despite the fact that RU has beaten UConn and USF.

by RUFan on Nov 29, 2009 8:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent, as always

I tried my own hand at this last night. Mine is identical but for:
1) The SEC (which is a mess)
2) Which bowls the at-larges (MTSU, BG, NIU, ND/UCLA) go to.
3) The Pizza Bowl doesn’t get first pick from the MAC?

That I got that close I’m calling a victory for myself, since you seem to grasp the system.

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Nov 29, 2009 8:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, But I think Clemson wins.

In which case: Cincy to Orange, TCU to Fiesta, Boise to Sugar?

GT to Peach, Miami to Gator, VT to Champs?

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Nov 29, 2009 8:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

According to the MAC website,

the GMAC gets first selection from the MAC.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 29, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

That’s what I get for using wikipedia.

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Nov 29, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Outback Bowl

While I still think it is a longshot, there is one semi-legitimate reason Northwestern could jump Wisconsin:

If the Outback does select Tennessee, isn’t there a certain amount of TV/media appeal to matching college football’s two youngest coaches in Fitz and Kiffin? Especially when the Capitol One Bowl (which starts just a bit later in the day) may have football’s oldest coach in Paterno?

Certainly not a slam dunk case….but Tennesee will travel well, NU has never been in the Outback, and it also would be a rematch of the 1996-97 Citrus Bowl….

I’d say that the odds are still 75% that it is Wisconsin in the Outback, but with Tennessee as the other team, it does make Northwestern more attractive by comparison/in conjunction with the Vols…

by Chadnudj on Nov 29, 2009 9:04 AM CST via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Northwestern's best hope

is that the Outback gets worried that after a game in Hawaii, the Badgers won’t travel in big numbers to Florida (for the 6th straight year). Even so, a small Badger crowd is still likely bigger than a big Northwestern crowd.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 29, 2009 9:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Outback Bowl

The better question is why do you have Tenn in the Outback Bowl? No chance of that.

by Disinterested Par-tay on Nov 30, 2009 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see why that's unlikely

After Floribama get scooped up by the BCS, the Cap One gets next pick and takes LSU (presumably). Then the Cotton and Outback are next, with the Cotton having preference for SEC West teams and Outback for the East. So the Outback can’t get Ole Miss (who would almost certainly be picked by the Cotton). That’s the last West team that would be attractive enough for the Outback to consider switching over. Of the East teams, I don’t know who travels well and who doesn’t, but my impression is that Tennessee usually does, and since everyone’s at 7-5 it’s a free-for-all.

by SpartanDan on Nov 30, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fly in the ointment

With wins by USC, Oregon, and Cinci next week, there’s a very good chance USC slips back into the top 14. In which case USC is available for BCS bowls, and Boise can forget about the BCS. Virginia Tech would have blown up Boise’s chances, but the selection order is such that the spot VT would go in (3rd pick, after the SEC title game loser replaces the SEC title game winner and PSU/Iowa replaces Texas) is the Orange Bowl, and sending VT there against the ACC champ would seem a bit hokey, especially if Clemson wins and makes it a rematch (and if Nesbitt’s not 100%, Clemson likely does win).

by drothgery on Nov 29, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm very interested

in seeing where USC ends up in today’s BCS rankings. If they’re high enough, they do have an outside shot at #14 next week if they beat Arizona. Would the Fiesta select them over a #5 or #6 Boise State? Maybe. If they know that Iowa will fill the seats, they can afford the small traveling party that the Trojans will bring. My guess is that the Fiesta passes on USC, even if they make the Top 14.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 29, 2009 9:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's not the problem

USC vs. Boise or TCU for the Fiesta wouldn’t be a big deal. For the Orange, though, it’s a big deal. Mid-major fans will do a one or even two-day drive or a short flight (hence the western teams do pretty well in the Fiesta). But there’s no way the Orange is taking Boise or TCU if they can avoid it, and if they can manage to pass on Cinci as well, they will.

by drothgery on Nov 29, 2009 10:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't think there's much chance

I don’t think they can realistically get above #18 this week unless they get massively rewarded for a close win against a thoroughly mediocre UCLA team. (Don’t be fooled by the final score; it was 14-7 before USC scored twice in the final minute and a half.) GT and Pitt are too far ahead to fall behind because of one loss, and even Oklahoma State might be, so the only team they should be able to pass is Clemson. Next week there’s opportunity to pass GT (though that may put Clemson back in front), Oregon State, and Pitt. That still only gets them to #15 best case. Not sure a win over Arizona would be enough to push them up past any idle teams.

Of course, there is one fatal flaw in all of this analysis: it assumes the polls behave rationally.

by SpartanDan on Nov 29, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WUT?

This is just a horrible set of predictions for the Big 12. Do you have any idea what’s been going on in the conference?

Here’s the more likely scenario in our conference:

BCS National Championship: Texas
Cotton: Okie Lite
Holiday: Nebraska
Alamo: Texas Tech
Sun: Oklahoma (over Mizzou due to ticket sales)
Insight: Mizzou
Independence: Iowa State
Texas: Aggy

by BorderConference on Nov 29, 2009 11:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I have a hunch

that the Alamo is not going to let this shot at OU pass them by. As for the Iowa State/A&M choice, I’d love to hear why the Independence Bowl would choose the Clones over the Aggies. I just don’t see that one.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 29, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowls make deals amonst themselves...

and I think that the Independence will take ISU. Iowa State fans travel in droves to bowl games because they don’t get to go tom any.

Here is my order bets…
BCS NC: Texas
Cotton: Oklahoma State
Holiday: Nebraska
Alamo: Oklahoma
Sun: Texas Tech
Insight: Mizzou
Independence: Iowa State
Texas: Texas A&M

Sittin’ Home: K*****, Colorado, Baylor, K-State

There is a God and I'm not it, after that EVERYTHING is subjective. Be careful for what you wish for, you just might GET IT!

by mizzoufan1 on Nov 29, 2009 8:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

K*****

thats brilliant

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ricky Stanzi is to interceptions as Journey is to 80s rock ballads...inextricably linked."

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 30, 2009 1:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No ND

I like (although it would be hilarious to see them in the Little Caesar’s Bowl).

I really hope you’re right about OU too; Tech would absolutely shred our secondary. Don’t know the travel situations with various Big XII fan bases well enough to predict there, though. I wouldn’t be too bothered by Missouri either (or Nebraska, if Texas mops the floor with them badly enough to promote Tech to the Holiday Bowl). But Tech just seems like a terrible matchup.

by SpartanDan on Nov 29, 2009 11:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Happiness, but no hilarity

Notre Dame players reportedly decide not to sully themselves with a bowl game.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 30, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn

And here I was hoping they’d break out the “lucky” green uniforms for a bowl game.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Nov 30, 2009 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think they sullied themselves

already plenty this year.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 30, 2009 5:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The idea of Army in a bowl is mind boggling

But seeing USC where they are warms my heart

by hmlee on Nov 29, 2009 6:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

After seeing that it is possible, I am now rooting hard for Arkansas/Houston in the Liberty Bowl. How does 66-59 grab you as a final score?

by HawkeyedFrog on Nov 29, 2009 8:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

EagleBank

The sad sad truth of the situation surrounding the EagleBank Bowl saddens and depresses me as a Marshall fan. The fact that an Army win over Navy(despite being unlikely) could eliminate Marshall from the bowl picture is a scenario I never thought I would see the day of.

I find it interesting to have that game projected to pit the Herd against NIU though, should be a nice throw back to the MAC days either way. A lot of people seem to think that contest will be a MU-BGSU rematch, although I hope for the sake of competition you are right. I think NIU would be a better game, from the Marshall perspective. It might be a little difficult to get Marshall fans to go watch another contest against Bowling Green, then again at this point if Marshall fans can’t be bothered to travel to DC then we’re in trouble.

by elroachae on Nov 29, 2009 9:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs