2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 10

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 8, 2009 9:36 AM CST in Bowl Projections Comment 37 comments

Before we look forward, let's look back. In early February, a certain writer on this very blog made these bold statements:

I still think that 2009 is the start of the return of the Big Ten. For a comparable year, look back to 2000. My guess is that no team goes 8-0 in conference. I also predict that no team finishes with less than 2 losses (and only Ohio State does that).

I envisioned a league in which Ohio State went 7-1 in conference, and everyone else dropped at least two games. Assuming that Iowa loses in Columbus next week, that's what we'll have. As for the strength of the league, I'll put the Top 4 of the Big Ten up against anyone else in the country. Beyond that...not so much.

Ummm....Michigan? Where were you?

Big BCS shakeups this week. If ever there was a year that two mid-majors go to a BCS bowl, this could be it. I still think that the powers that be won't have it (Money, people. It's about money). We'll do another full projection next week, but for now the BCS and Big Ten Bowls follow after the jump.

Remember the rules.

These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.

			Alabama clinched the SEC West with their win over LSU. Barring a complete collapse against Auburn and Mississippi State, they also clinched a BCS Bowl Bid, too. A win over Florida gets them here.
			Left without a good choice for attendance (the choice is USC, TCU, Cincy, or Boise St.), the Orange Bowl goes for sizzle on TV. They're probably hoping that Clemson wins the ACC. The Tigers have the league's best traveling fans.
			It says here that 10-2 Iowa gets selected over 10-2 Penn State. Goodbye, Notre Dame (as the Gator Bowl rejoices). I thought more of you than you were.
			Again, this is going to be the SEC Championship loser versus the Big East Champion. Could be a fun one.
			10-2 (7-1) Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl for the first time this decade. Oregon better be careful. Arizona and USC are gaining on them.
			I would LOVE to see this game.
			Tennessee may have lost their last game this season. An easy schedule down the stretch makes Tampa a likely destination.
			This spot is open to whatever Big Ten team can get seven wins. Northwestern's upset of Iowa gives them the inside track.
			I suspect that Okie State and Nebraska will go to the Cotton and Holiday Bowls. I'm betting that the Alamo Bowl will not pass on its first opportunity to bring the Sooners to San Antonio.
			Oh Minnesota. All you had to do was beat Illinois. At home. Sad. Now you'll need to beat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City in order to move up from here.
			I hope that the Dallas Football Classic is paying attention to how often the Big Ten fills its sixth post-BCS slot.
			All of these teams are still mathematically alive for 6 wins and a bowl game. Michigan needs to win at Wisconsin or versus Ohio State. Illinois needs to beat Northwestern, Fresno State, and Cincinnati. Indiana needs to win at Penn State and versus Purdue. Purdue needs to win versus Michigan State and at Indiana. If any of these teams were to win six games, they would be above Minnesota in the selection order. Michigan would go above Michigan State too. I think that all four teams have missed their chances and are sinking deeper into the layers of cheese. That means that they will On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Addendum: I, obviously, write these before the Sunday afternoon polls came out. I was surprised at how far Iowa fell. Assuming that they lose to Ohio State and beat Minnesota, it will be very close for them to make it back into the Top 14. If they don't, you can swap Penn State (who should be safely in after two wins against Indiana and Michigan State) for the Hawkeyes.

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2 loss, non B10 Champion team

still gets a BCS bowl? Not that there are a lot of choices, but I just don’t see it. I suppose this is all a function of butts in the seat.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 8, 2009 9:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Need someone

And 2 loss Ohio State from last year and Illinois from 2007 show that it happens. Big 12 has no one ACC has no one. It won’t be the Big East. In fact, I feel more secure in the Big Ten getting a second bid than I do USC.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 8, 2009 10:13 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

USC is a big name

But no one knows if they actually travel for bowls, seeing as they have all of 8 miles to go for the one they’re always in.

by SpartanDan on Nov 8, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think they got a decent crowd to the Orange

for Pete Carroll’s first BCS game, and the 2004 season title game.

by drothgery on Nov 8, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

USC travels badly

They brought people, but not a bunch, to the Orange Bowl vs. Iowa. I see USC being picked above Iowa if and only if the game cares more about the game than putting butts in the seats. Iowa brings droves of fans, and that may help them.

by imadirtyoldman on Nov 9, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They don't need to be picked above Iowa, though

They just need to be picked above a 2nd non-BCS school. Which they will be, press cheerleading for Boise State notwithstanding.

by drothgery on Nov 10, 2009 1:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here goes a shot at explaining

It seems nearly certain that all the BCS conference champions will be in the top 14 in the final rankings. That’s six of the 14 eligible teams. A non-BCS conference champion will be in the final top 8 (both TCU and Boise are in the current top 8, and even if they both lose, Houston isn’t very far back, and neither is Utah), and get an automatic spot. The SEC title game loser is likely to be the final #3 or #4 and get an automatic spot, and even if they don’t, they’re going to go to the Sugar Bowl (except in the unlikely event that Florida or Alabama is upset before the SEC title game, and then loses again; in that case, it’s extremely likely LSU would go to the Sugar Bowl). That’s 8 of the ten BCS spots, and 8 of the top 14.

So, the rest of the teams possibly in the final top 14 can be roughly split into three categories

Teams that will not get a BCS bowl bid, because they will not sell tickets:
A second Big East team (presumably Pitt; WVU would be an exception, but it seems unlikely they’ll be in the final top 14)
A second ACC team (Miami has an outside shot at reaching the final top 14; VT or Clemson might sell tickets, but seem unlikely to reach the final top 14)
Any non-BCS team that doesn’t get an automatic spot (Whichever of TCU or Boise doesn’t get the automatic spot, Utah, Houston)

Teams that may get a BCS bowl bid
A second Big Ten team (presumably PSU or Iowa)
A second Pac 10 team (presumably USC)
A second Big 12 team (Oklahoma State has an outside shot at reaching the top 14 if they win out)

Teams that are ineligible for a BCS bowl bid
A third SEC team (presumably LSU)
A third Big Ten team (presumably whichever of PSU or Iowa is not selected above)

With only two discretionary spots likely availble, and only two major conferences likely to have decent-travelling teams to fill them (the Big Ten and the Pac 10), they’re going to ge those spots. And as Bama Hawkeye says, if Okie State pulls off a late run to get BCS eligible, it’s much more likely the Pac 10 loses out on a second spot again than the Big Ten does.

by drothgery on Nov 8, 2009 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If Purdue beats Michigan State at home next week I would put them in

We’re not losing to IU in Bloomington with a bowl on the line.

A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance

HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog

by BoilerTMill on Nov 8, 2009 9:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

If so

You could flip Purdue and MSU. I still like Sparty in that one.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 8, 2009 10:14 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

you don't think Minn would get selected over Purdue?

both finish 6-6 and Purdue knocks out Mich State.

It is not like Purdue has a huge following and the Gophers did beat the Boilermakers. If bowls consider how “hot” a team is or is not then I see it, but I’ve never heard of that being selection criteria.

The Gophers don’t have a massive following but they did help to set an Insight Bowl record for attendance last year. Same records, I think Minn gets selected ahead of Purdue.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Nov 9, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would just be happy to go anywhere

Even to Detroit to play Central Michigan for the 483rd time in three years.

A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance

HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog

by BoilerTMill on Nov 9, 2009 5:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Indiana

They have lost more games in a heartbreaking manner than just about any Big Ten squad…and although it doesn’t mean much on a national or regional level, it’s good to see a competitive team in Bloomington…

As for the matchups…Where does a 9-3 Iowa team end up? They are punchless with Vandenberg…I believe Florida is better than Bama (functioning offense), plus Bama is pulling “an Iowa” by winning every game by the skin of their teeth…Where’s Boise State?

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ricky Stanzi is to interceptions as Journey is to 80s rock ballads...inextricably linked."

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 8, 2009 10:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

9-3 Iowa

Is in one of the Florida Bowls, probably to the Capital One ahead of Wisconsin. Boise is in the best matchup that the WAC can arrange for them or on their home turf.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 8, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bizarre Bowl game projections

This is the most Bizarre bowl game projection I have ever seen. According to your projection all 10 Big ten teams are going to the bowl, that alone is laughable. And you have 3 Big XII teams in the mix? and you have only 4 SEC team? Man you must be delusional.

by YUMC on Nov 8, 2009 10:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

And you

didn’t read the part that said that this was just the projections for the Big Ten and the BCS games.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 8, 2009 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Queso Bowl is another word for "no bowl"

And there are 11 Big Ten teams

The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ricky Stanzi is to interceptions as Journey is to 80s rock ballads...inextricably linked."

by grahamfiller10 on Nov 8, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Queso bowl

is quite distinguished. It is held every december in the city of Couchopolis in the state of LivingRoom

by hmlee on Nov 8, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Reading comprehension FAIL

by SpartanDan on Nov 8, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He does seem to be from Big XII country

Which would explain the intelligent response.

"If Ron Zook were an ice cream flavor, it would be praline and retard"
-Garth Algar

by Tree Meister on Nov 8, 2009 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WOOOOOOSHHHH!!!!!

Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.

by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Nov 9, 2009 3:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Orange Bowl

Do you think the Orange takes SC over Miami, or do you not think Miami finishes in the Top 14?

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Nov 8, 2009 10:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The Orange Bowl won’t take a second ACC team (they automatically get the champ). I don’t think there’s anything in the rules prohibiting it, but intra-conference matchups are not going to happen in the bowls.

The other bowls might, but the Sugar Bowl is likely to take the SEC title game loser and get stuck with an auto-qualifier that the others didn’t want (either Cincy or TCU). If Miami goes (assuming GT doesn’t blow it at Duke and hand Miami a chance to auto-qualify) it’ll almost certainly be the Fiesta.

by SpartanDan on Nov 8, 2009 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m just thinking back to the year the OB took Miami for an FSU-Miami rematch. Given that I don’t think USC travels well, 2-loss Miami might be more attactive than 2-loss USC, even in a rematch against Georgia Tech.

Of course, this was when Miami was in the Big East, but I’m not sure that makes a difference.

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Nov 9, 2009 12:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Orange

didn’t want Miami that year. They got stuck with the rematch. I think that they’d prefer USC over an ACC game that already happened.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 9, 2009 5:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

Although, if USC keeps throwing up <200 yds. offense, the Emerald Nut bowl might be in their future.

"Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa"

by Not Marv Cook on Nov 9, 2009 6:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Miami was still in the Big East that year

It was their final year and they went as Big East champ

A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance

HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog

by BoilerTMill on Nov 9, 2009 5:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

There's no reason to think

PSU couldn’t jump Iowa in the bowl selections. Head to head is meaningless, only record matters, and Iowa did the same exact thing to Northwestern last season.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 9, 2009 7:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That's very true

I think that it will come down to rankings (are both inside the Top 14) and fan base excitement (who will bring the most fans to Tempe/Miami).

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 9, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Always a possibility

As you note about the head-to-head. The difference is that jNWU is a terrible school from the bowl standpoint, they just don’t travel. Iowa, while not quite matching PSU’s travel ability, is a bowl favorite because it also travels very well. Bowls are free to do as they will, but the dropoff from PSU to Iowa is incredibly small, especially relative to the dropoff between Iowa jNWU.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Nov 9, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Other than being completely wrong....

….interesting point.

Truth is, Northwestern travels REALLY well, simply due to the fact that it’s a national private university, and thus many/most of its alumni leave the Chicagoland area after graduation, dispersing fans all over the country that will attend bowl games (ironically, our geographically dispersed fan base means we struggle to fill our own stadium, having the second smallest alumni base in Chicago of the Big Ten schools — Penn State has the smallest). NU snapped up all of its bowl allotment last year for the Alamo Bowl (plus hundreds of other tickets) on the strength of a large alumni base in Texas (as well as others with disposable income) — probably 2/3 of the fans there were Northwestern fans.

Ditto the Sun Bowl, ditto the Alamo Bowl in 2000, ditto the Citrus Bowl, ditto the Rose Bowl. Each time, NU sold more than its allotment of tickets….

Now, OF COURSE there is a difference between Iowa and NU fans — you definitely have “more fans” overall. But NU has no problem selling its bowl tickets…..never has, never will.

by Chadnudj on Nov 9, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, don't start this again

You don’t travel. And I don’t want to hear about your Armani-suit wearing alums. We went down this path last year and you saw how that ended up (Iowa, Outback; jNWU, Alamo). If your fans travelled anywhere near as well as you like to pretend, no way would you have gotten jumped.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Nov 9, 2009 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Stop it now.

This crap about Northwestern traveling well was spewed last year. They don’t. Last year, the Alamo Bowl had 55,000 fans there. Blame Mizzou for not pulling their weight? Fine. In 2000, NW/Nebraska (NEBRASKA!) had 60,000 at the game. Traveling well doesn’t mean selling your allotment. It means selling your allotment, asking for more, selling those and then telling your fans to get tickets from the other school’s tickets. By the way, Penn State and Iowa were involved in 4 of the 5 most attended Alamo Bowls. Each drew over 65,000 (which is capacity). That’s traveling well.

The Citrus Bowl? On 1/1/97, Tennessee/Northwestern drew 63,000 fans. Penn State and Iowa have drawn over 70,000 (requiring the installation of temporary bleachers) for their last three visits.

http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 9, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Northwestern doesn't travel well

to Ryan Fucking Field. See below thier home attendance this year:
Towson 17,000
E. Michigan 19K
Minnesota 22K
Miami, OH 23K
Indiana 24K
Penn State 30K

The stadium holds 47, 130

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Nov 9, 2009 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs