The number one reason the Big Ten won't go 1-6 this year

by grahamfiller10 on Dec 23, 2009 5:41 PM CST in All Comment 9 comments

is...

A conference wide improvement in the passing game.

Sure, it looks like the Big Ten has some easier matchups than last year. But last year's one win debacle was not just a product of bad matchups and a mediocre Big Ten, it was also a referendum on the horrendous passing offenses of the teams. If you slowed their run game, we were looking at a dearth of great wide receivers or cohesive passing attacks. If you got in a hole early, the game was over. Let's look at some of last year's matchups, shall we?

2008 Capitol One Bowl - Michigan State v. UGA - Javon Ringer, he of 390 carries (30 x 13=390, that's a lot of carries), got stuffed early by UGA and the "game managing" Brian Hoyer couldn't bring the Spartans back in a 24-12 loss. Hoyer's statistics: 18-34, 169 yards and a pick.

2008 Outback Bowl - Wisconsin v. FSU - Florida State began their offensive onslaught in the 3rd quarter, picking up a 21-6 lead and quickly turning that into a 28-6 lead. Wisconsin countered with a power run game but realized the Seminoles were too far ahead to run on two out of every three downs.The result of Wisconsin's 2nd half passing? 82 yards, 2 sacks, 1 Sherer fumble...and one meaningless late touchdown.

2008 Insight Bowl - Minnesota v. Kansas - The Jayhawks had been scoring in bunches all year, which is why I made them a three touchdown favorite in the OPC. Mangino's offense didn't disappoint, scoring 28 first half points to put Minnesota in a hole. How did Adam Weber respond? 19-34, 176 yards and a touchdown.

I've made it widely known that the Big Ten's passing games are improved overall this year. 9 quarterbacks have a 126 rating or higher in 2009, compared to only 4 last year. Tolzien, Cousins, and Kafka are all improvements over their 2008 predecessors. Daryll Clark has continued his statistical wizardry, while Pryor and Stanzi have been trusted to throw more than last year.

While no one will confuse the 2009 Big Ten QB crop with the 2008 Big 12, it's heartening to know that an early deficit won't equal instant defeat because the signalcaller can barely manage a spiral.

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Jim Delaney, I am your only hope.

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Nice theory, but I just don't get a warm fuzzy

with Pryor, Stanzi, Weber, Clark, Kafka and company.

All of them, every single one, is very inconsistent. And name one Big 10 QB, just one, that if you had to look him in the eye and say ‘son, you gotta win this game with your arm’, you would have no doubt they could. I could listen to an argument for Mike Kafka or Scott Tolzien, maybe.

The Big 10 has some favorable match ups this year, but if it comes down to having to pass to win, every Big 10 team except Wisconsin and Northwestern are in big trouble.

"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."

--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre

by MilCardFan on Dec 23, 2009 8:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

... except northwestern ...

how often do you hear that one?

also kafka’s stats, for arguments sake:
272/414 cmp/att (66%)
12/7 td/int
7 yds/att
130 passer rating

i’d take him if i wanted to win a game.

by pfoley on Dec 23, 2009 11:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, warm fuzzies aside

The theme for this post season has been optimism for me…I predicted a 2-5 record last year because 1) I didn’t believe in the Big Ten teams and 2) the matchups didn’t favor us at all.

This year, I want to be realistic, but at the same time I see some real positives. We’re favored in only 2 games, but I could see Wisconsin’s balanced attack causing problems and NW’s toughness doing the same. One forgets, the Big Ten featured 6 NFL backs (Hill, Ringer, Wells, Sheets, Sutton, Greene) last year, so it was obvious why the run game was paramount. That running prowess did little in the bowls, so this year I’m placing my faith in the improved wide receiver corps (Iowa, MSU, Wisc, NW) and the improved passers.

The Rivalry, Esq.

by grahamfiller10 on Dec 24, 2009 2:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you on the positivity

I think the Big 10 will acquit themselves well this year. I think 4-3, but 5-2 or even 6-1 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. They’ll do it with really tough defense and balanced offenses. If any of these games become a ‘pass to catch up’ sort of game for the Big 10, I just think they’re in a lot of trouble. I don’t see that happening to anyone except Michigan State, though, who I hear is starting three members from the band to overcome all the suspensions.

"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."

--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre

by MilCardFan on Dec 24, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If it's the 4th quarter

Then I absolutely trust Stanzi to win the game for us. If it’s quarters 1-3, then I absolutely expect Stanzi to do his damnedest to put us in a position where 4th quarter Stanzi needs to win us the game.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Dec 24, 2009 2:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanzi can get away with that against the Purdues of the world

but not Georgia Tech. He plays like ass in quarters 1-3 they’ll be down too far to get back in it.

"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."

--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre

by MilCardFan on Dec 24, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Cousins is pretty good

Of course, his main targets other than Blair White are suspended, so I’m not sure how much good it will do

by SpartanDan on Dec 28, 2009 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, being a visitor from Addicted to Quack, I’ll keep it complimentary:

I agree mostly with your thesis. However, I think the best passer I’ve seen in the Big-10 isn’t even in a bowl game—Mr. Joey Elliott! Granted, the three games I watched him in—against us in Autzen, the heartbreaker against Michigan State and against Ohio State—were probably his best games, but I still think that Purdue had the most complete passing game I’ve seen in the Big-10 this year, which isn’t saying much, but it also is unfair given that Stanzi got hurt.

That being said, I also enjoyed the Wisconsin/Fresno State almost-upset, as well as seeing Iowa a couple of times (unfortunately, only a couple Big-10 games make their way to our TVs here on the west).

I wish well for the Big-10 this bowl season (other than the Rose Bowl! :P), because I’m pretty sick of everyone basically discounting the conference as inferior, untalented, etc. It’s disrespectful, and for the heritage the conference has, more respect should be shown it.

by jcolomy on Dec 24, 2009 5:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Elliot...elliottttttttttttt

Joey Elliot was the biggest surprise for me this year. He was better than 2008 Curtis Painter and his most underrated feature was a tremendous nose for scrambling. We were thinking, WWE style, we could have Minnesota “tap out” and be replaced by Purdue in the Insight Bowl…

One statistic that I didn’t add, because it didn’t help the argument, was that Michigan, Indiana AND Purdue all had far better offenses this year. They missed postseason play, but Ben Chappell, Forcier, and Elliot led offense attacks that put up points against decent teams…

The Rivalry, Esq.

by grahamfiller10 on Dec 24, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs