Plow Horses - The Case Against Penn State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 12:07 PM CDT
in Penn State
75 comments
The case against Penn State is based upon an idea that I've had brewing for the better part of two months. Each year, the preseason picks come out with surprising unanimity. Sure, some might have Oklahoma at 2 and others might have Texas at 2, but it's not like there is a pollster who is picking Kentucky to finish in the Top 10. And yet, last year a team coming off a 7-6 season, in the same division as the defending national champion, with a road game at the defending champion, ended up 12-2 and #6 (Alabama). I'm not picking Kentucky to pull that off. But...if all you do is think like the group, all you'll get is the group's answers. Picking which near .500 team will end up in the Top 10 is too tough for my simple mind. Sure, I can see Notre Dame, Colorado, Clemson, North Carolina St., or Minnesota pulling it off, but I wouldn't predict which one (though I listed them in my guess of likelihood). However, I think that it is safe to predict that a BCS team that finished with 5-7 wins last year will end up in the Top 10 this year.
But picking which team is being overrated - which team is a flop waiting to happen? That seems easier. Last year, I thought that Clemson was being given far too much love as a Top 15/borderline Top 10 team at the start of the season. This wasn't because of a lack of faith in Tommy Bowden. Instead, I looked for my personal recipe for over-ranking: too many show ponies and not enough plow horses.
JoePa finds out how this ties in with Penn State after the break...
When I clerked as a summer associate at a large firm in a Big Ten city, I had a wonderful experience working with a labor and employment attorney who handled union negotiations for a number of major employers. One of the things he said stuck with me in my practice, and is relevant here as well. "Some lawyers," he said, "you might think of as show ponies. They look good when you put them in a hearing or in front of a jury. But, they don't win because they're good show ponies. They win because they're better plow horses. For every day that they get to show off how good they are, there are twenty days that no one sees in which they just have to do the dirty work. That's why they win. They win because they're plow horses."
When I see a team that returns its quarterback and skill position players, but loses the offensive line, I immediately think about show ponies and plow horses. On the defense, I look to the front seven to see what's coming back. I don't trust a team that has too many holes there (unless that team has a mascot that rhymes with "Grojans." Until proven differently, these rules do not apply to them.)
Let's look at Clemson in the Summer of 2008. Returning quarterback? Yes. Cullen Harper was a Senior who was second team All-ACC the season before. Returning Skill Players? Yes. There was first team All-ACC RB James Davis, who was backed up by speedster and second team All-ACC RB C.J. Spiller. Throw in four returning starters at WR and TE (Clemson operated out of a three WR formation as its base), and you have a ridiculous amount of talent coming back. Give those pretty looking show ponies a BCS bid!
Or...we can look at their plow horses. The D-Line actually wasn't in too bad of shape, returning three of four. It was the linebackers that were the problem. The lone returning backer was kicked off the team over the summer. That meant four new faces in the front seven. Not great, but not awful. No, the awful part was on the other side of the ball - four new starters for a line that had problems the year before. None of the starters were seniors. That's a huge red flag. Where are the experienced plow horses? Send them to a lower-tier bowl!
You'll notice Clemson's Offensive Line in the background. It's busy not blocking.
Sure, the truth (due to a fantastic fan base) is somewhere in between, but here's the thing. Experience matters, but it matters in some places more than others. The three positions where it matters most are at QB, OL and D-Front Seven. I can only offer my reasoning as to why. Quarterbacks and linebackers are thinking positions. The more you've seen in-game conditions, the more prepared you are to properly react. The O-Line and D-Line require size and repetition. By nature, a man will grow bigger and stronger between the ages of 20 and 22 (and if a lineman doesn't, that's the strength coach's issue). More than that, a Sophomore isn't going to have the repetitions and experience that the Senior will.
So let's look at Penn State.
Skill Positions: Daryll Clark was very good last year. He's back for a 6th season. Evan Royster was very good last year. He's back for a second year starting. Those are two impressive show ponies. The experience isn't there at WR, as the top three from last year have moved on (Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined for 132 catches for 1,932 yards and 17 touchdowns). When you really look at it, Penn State is a little light on show ponies. Clark and Royster deserve the accolades, but I'd be concerned about the loss of the entire wide receiver corps.
Defensive Front Seven: Depending on how you count it, you either have three or four starters returning. The linebacking corps will be very good, but the rush ends, including first round draft pick Aaron Maybin, need to be replaced. I feel compelled to mention that the front seven better quickly learn how to get good pressure, because the ENTIRE secondary will be new. That's seven or eight new starters on the defensive side of the ball. That would make me nervous.
Offensive Line: Last year's offensive line had three All-Big Ten selections. It was the best line in the Big Ten and one of the best at Penn State in the last twenty years. They're gone. This will be a problem. Phil Steele compiled the data of returning starts by offensive linemen. I love these numbers. Obviously, it doesn't mean that the team with more returning starts will beat the team with fewer starts, but it does give hard data for my plow horses. Any school with more than 90 starts returning is in the Top 20% of Division I. Any school with fewer than 50 starts returning is in the bottom 25% of Division I. Everyone else is in the middle, where experience is unlikely be a strength or weakness.
| Minnesota | 102 |
| Iowa | 99 |
| Indiana | 84 |
| Michigan | 76 |
| Purdue | 68 |
| Northwestern | 64 |
| Ohio Sate | 62 |
| Michigan State | 52 |
| Illinois | 49 |
| Wisconsin | 49 |
| Penn State |
39 |
Not good for Penn State, wouldn't you say?
So what do I see for Penn State? I envision Evan Royster swallowed up before he gets a chance to move out of the backfield. I picture Daryll Clark constantly throwing on the run to new receivers. I see a new secondary picked apart after the front seven fails to get pressure. But, I still see Penn State picking up 7 or 8 wins because of the schedule. They'll breeze through their four non-con games (Akron, Temple, Syracuse, Eastern Illinois...seriously?). But, I see the Lions losing at least four of their conference games. I think that they'll split with Iowa and Minnesota in Happy Valley. They'll blow out Indiana, but they'll lose to the OSU. On the road, they could lose each one. They won't, but it's in the realm of possibility. I'll take losses at the Big House and East Lansing and wins in Evanston and Madison Cham-bana (I was thinking Illinois and typing Wisconsin. My bad). That equals 8-4, with two losses in their last three weeks (in what will still be considered a weak Big Ten). I bet that ends up outside of the Top 25. I still see this comment being true.
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Good to know I'm not the only one who thinks this
Royster and Clark are very good and will still be very good, but the talent around them is either too young or too inexperienced. The offense will be an inconsistent unit probably up until around the Ohio State game, which will probably decide the Big Ten champion.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 8, 2009 1:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You're not
I’ve been down on Penn State ever since I took a look at the losses in the receiving corps, much less the defense.
A lot of the national pundits seem to be penciling Penn State at the top of the conference based on Clark, Royster, and Paterno’s history of developing defensive talent. That’s nice but it doesn’t tell me who exactly Clark will be throwing to, and, as I got to see in an extreme case with Florida in 2007, developing a cohesive defense doesn’t happen overnight when you lose that many players. Ohio State in 2006 was an exception, not a rule.
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by Year2 on Jun 8, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The receivers will be fine
To carry the analogy, they’ve got the plow horses to catch the ball (WR Brackett and TE Shuler), big targets with good hands that can make due with rushed passes as long as its in the neighborhood and if any of the show ponies (WR Moye, WR Powell or if he can do more than just tease with his talents TE Quarless) break out then by all means it should be fireworks again. The problem is if Clark goes down again this year, there’s no Devlin to come in, that’s a lot to put on the shoulders of the freshman Newsome. You’re right secondary IS frightening and any Penn State fan that tells you otherwise at this point is kidding themselves. Hopefully the cupcake schedule allows the DBs and Safeties time to develop and lets the Offensive Line get in sync so when the Big Ten comes most of the kinks are ironed out.
by PSU Nick on Jun 8, 2009 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and even with Ohio State '06
that was an exceptionally bad year for the conference as a whole offensively. Penn State will be going up against better offenses than whatever the hell John L. Smith was doing in East Lansing, for example.
It all comes down to whether or not their defensive line can be great from the first snap of Big Ten play. If not, they’re a national also-ran but possibly also a conference runner-up.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 10, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awsome article
I’ve been saying the same thing for some time now. PSU fans are convinced they are in for a repeat of last year. I’ve heard claims of “reloading” and have to point out that PSU hasn’t put together back-to-back double digit win season since 93 and 94.
Their weaknesses on the O-line combined with a completely fresh WR corps is going to kill their offense and their defense is going to be picked apart because of their secondary. They’ll still be stout against the run which will save them from blowouts and keep them in some of their weaker in-conference games, but they’ll lose the games against the better Big Ten teams.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 6:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who is going to "pick them apart"?
The QBs in the league are hardly frightening.
There are serious questions, but WR and the secondary aren’t really the concern.
by Kevin HD on Jun 9, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps you should go read the series of articles
on this very blog about the QBs in the Big Ten. Stanzi is more than capable of picking apart your weak secondary – as are Weber, Williams and Pryor.
And if you aren’t concerned about a WR corps that doesn’t have a SINGLE start between then then you are in for a rude awakening.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
This starts thing is ridiculous. Did you watch any PSU games? Just because they weren’t out there for the first drive doesn’t mean that they rode the pine all game. Zug and Brackett played in 9 games last year and Zug had at least one reception in every game he played in. There’s more to any team than starts.
"From the outside looking in, you cannot understand it. From the inside looking out, you cannot explian it."
by psuphiman80 on Jun 10, 2009 12:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One reception per game
And you call that experience? Really? Especially in a pass-happy offense? There is a reason players don’t start – which is why players have been rated by how many starts they have over their careers for quite some time now. It isn’t new.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 10, 2009 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clemson fan to agree...
That is the perfect team to compare. As a Penn State and Clemson fan (long story), I can see Penn State sliding into a poor season like Clemson last year.
Also, there seems to be a trend where ACC schools will play an SEC school in ATL to kick off the season. I guess this is fun, but I wont ever want to see Virginia play Auburn or some equally terrible inevitable match up. I’ve wanted to see the Big 10-ACC rivaly from Basketball carry over to football and kick off the season that way. I feel like these two divisions compete for the national #2 spot behind the SEC and would have awesome match ups every year. Just my little wet dream two cents.
by CatRashFever on Jun 8, 2009 2:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Clemson fan you say? You NEED to read this
Tomahawk Nation presents “For Entertainment Purposes Only 2009”: The Pre-Season Edition. Florida State is the Atlantic Favorite, but the Value Lies with Clemson It’s long, but it’s very thorough.
by Bud Elliott on Jun 9, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Had a chance....
To read that just the other day, thanks for pointing it out tho. Thought it was a great article. I am worried for Clemson, I have seen us predicted to finish second to last in our division and another winning the ACC. Also I’ve seen our O-Line (which gave us so many troubles, not that Cullen was anything near a winning quarterback) ranked #2 in the ACC which I’m not sure about. Maybe one of the most unpredictable teams in College football this year?
by CatRashFever on Jun 9, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're weak on the DL?
Maybin wasn’t a starter until Evans got himself suspended last year. The year before that, Evans came out of nowhere to have a double digit sack season. The idea of a defensive end coming up big for Penn State isn’t exactly a tough one to see, especially considering how stout they are in the middle. Plus, Jerome Hayes is a returning 5th year senior who has played plenty in his career. And as for the secondary, I don’t see any quality QBs in the conference good enough to shred it up like USC did to a very experienced unit last year. Wallace has started in the past, and Astorino is just as good as either safety last year. Maybe we don’t have the position solidified, but a cupcake OOC schedule will give them 3 games to get to know each other.
The offensive line is a concern, granted, but Wis and Landolt are both potential 1st team all Big-Ten players (Wis could be an All American) and it’s not like the seniors are being replaced by freshmen-mostly juniors and seniors who just never got a chance. Again, having 3 warm up games will help the unit solidify. Plus, Clark’s got the wheels and skill set to work off of rollouts and in space, where he can avoid the rush. I’m not concerned. Frankly, I’m more concerned about the WR position.
Penn State is not Clemson, because Clemson always sucks, and because Clemson wasn’t nearly as deep a team as Penn State.
How about Ohio State? Terrelle Pryor still can’t throw, and he loses his wide receivers. And his all-American running back who got 30 carries a game. And the All-American LB unit. Worry about your own team, buddy.
by PSUdevon on Jun 8, 2009 8:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks
1) extremely informative post, I appreciate your input…
2) “buddy” is an Iowa fan…commence attack dogs toward Iowa City
3) I would make the case that Pryor can throw (better at least) – see here..but his shotputting of 2008 wasn’t exactly helpful to my case
by grahamfiller10 on Jun 8, 2009 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really want to know how a quarterback "can't throw"
yet still complete more than 60 percent of his passes with a 3:1 TD int ratio.
Just seems kinda odd to me.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 10, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
when you have
a) good-to-great WRs
b) an All-American RB
and c) a passing game tailored to your strengths, with an emphasis on screen and short passes
Look at Pryor’s deep ball. It’s not average, it’s bad. He has good touch on the short throws, but it takes a lot more than that to make a defense respect your arm.
by PSUdevon on Jun 10, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's a true freshman taking snaps from under center for the first time in a long time
No, he’s not the prettiest of passers, but he gets the job done at the college level, and on a far superior level to almost every other true freshman one can name. Not having a good deep ball =/= “can’t throw”. Reggie Ball can’t throw. Anthony Morelli can’t throw. Terrelle Pryor has a crap deep ball.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 10, 2009 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yes, that Anthony Morelli comment was a little over the top
All I’m saying is, as far as college passers go, you can do a lot worse when it comes to true freshmen than Pryor.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 10, 2009 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morelli is an awful, awful quarterback
but he could throw a deep ball. He had the mechanics that these guys here at Rivalry, Esq. would have wet dreams about. But he also had the idea that every ball, no matter how short, needed to be thrown with full power, accuracy be damned. It didn’t work out too well.
Pryor is a phenomenal athlete. He’s an average quarterback, right now. If I’m playing against him, I’m stacking 8 in the box every single play, DARING him to beat one of my corners in one-on-one coverage. And I don’t think he can.
by PSUdevon on Jun 11, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This coming from someone who watched him pass for more yards
against his team than any other team on Ohio State’s schedule.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 11, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The O-Line
Is a great trend and statistic, but if you think the Penn State and Wisconsin O-Lines will struggle, while Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana will win the trench battles, you haven’t watched Big 10 football.
by NittanyBadger on Jun 9, 2009 7:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I watched
the way Iowa played in the trenches against Penn State and Wisconsin last year. I like that matchup.
And Minnesota is the team to watch this year.
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you group Iowa's O-Line with Minnesota and Indiana
I’d say you haven’t watched Big 10 football.
Count the Big 10 alums who got paid to plow on Sundays last year:
Michigan – 10
OSU – 9
Iowa – 8
Purdue – 6
Wisconsin – 6
Northwestern – 4
Illinois – 4
Penn State – 3
Minnesota – 3
Indiana – 3
Michigan St – 3
If anything, Iowa has been comparable with OSU and Michigan in plow horse talent this past decade or so, but has not been anywhere near as close at skill positions, or depth. You have to have a good line and front 7 to compete, but to win consistently, you ALSO must have a few difference-makers in your backfields. Penn State has usually had a bevy of talented skill position players, and almost always fields a respectable defense, but lacked either a decent QB or a decent OL to put them over the top.
by rockyh on Jun 9, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starts are fun to look at
but if you’re returning mediocre talent it’s probably not going to get better. Specifically TR JR DeOn’tae Pannell is the future LT for PSU and he has seen some game action but hasn’t started given the talent and experience of last years line. Another is RS JR Lou Eliades who has been in the program for 4 years and has filled in for injuries and other times during the last year, but he won’t be counted in “starts” either. Add two starters from last year into that line, throw in a weak early schedule to get even more cohesive and I’m not inexperienced on the line as others.
Clemson also hasn’t been good enough to win a conference championship since 1991 which is different from PSU, so there’s another difference right there. I’m not saying PSU is gonna be world beaters, but given the weak schedule I don’t think they’ll lose 4 conference games without some unfortunate circumstances.
"From the outside looking in, you cannot understand it. From the inside looking out, you cannot explian it."
by psuphiman80 on Jun 9, 2009 8:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree about the talent
That’s why just the fact that Indiana has vets coming back doesn’t make them a contender. But, I’d rather have experienced talent than inexperienced talent. To put it another way, would you rather have Texas’s O-Line, with 91 previous starts, or Oklahoma’s O-Line with 32 previous starts?
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soley based on starts
obviously you go with Texas, but I’m just sayin that it’s more complex than just starts.
"From the outside looking in, you cannot understand it. From the inside looking out, you cannot explian it."
by psuphiman80 on Jun 9, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I see the argument, but
They are 4-0 in the non conference EASY. They will be favored in probably 7 or their 8 conference games (might be dogs at Illinois). Let’s say they go 6-2 in conference and 4-0 against the pussiest non-conference schedule ever. That’s 10-2, and we know that voters do not care who you beat, as long as you have the wins. (see my article or Pat Forde’s article on this topic).
I can’t seriously accept the idea that Minnesota, Northwestern, or Indiana type teams will challenge Penn State, experienced or not, though I DO buy into the offensive line theory.
by Bud Elliott on Jun 9, 2009 9:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
"we know that voters do not care who you beat, as long as you have the wins"
Does Utah know that?
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They do not count, obviously
Their schedule can’t even tough PSU’s weak schedule.
by Bud Elliott on Jun 9, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh, o-line starts are just another metric for predicting a team’s success. If two teams are equal except one has more line experience, I give them the nod, but its not more important than having a good QB imo. Also, if you think the PSU front 7 will not be very good, you do not know PSU. The front 7 will be the usual PSU front 7….very good. Our seconday is rarely great anyways, so there won’t be a significant drop-off, although that is the only part I am concerned about.
Also I feel like PSU has the things that can offset an inexperienced line. 1)Super dooper dooper easy non con=extra gelling time, 2) Athletic QB who can avoid pressure and make plays, 3) Stud RB(s), 4)Good TEs, 5) the 2 guys on the OL that do have experience are really really good.
So, I do agree that line inexperience is not good but I disagree that PSU will horribly regress because of other external factors.
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by Roland86 on Jun 9, 2009 5:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Your easy schedule does not work for you
It works against you. It gives you no challenge that gives your O-line experience. it’s like weak practice – what good does that do?
Your D-line won’t face a highly talented and experienced O-line (including the one they face in practice each week) until they face Iowa. That doesn’t concern you in the slightest?
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 9, 2009 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not much
people worried about our linebackers. Hell, Adam Rittenberg called it a major question mark and our weakest position. But even without Sean Lee, somebody stepped up. That’s what happens at Penn State-we don’t have the 5-star guys who we can’t wait for to get in and step up. We have kids coming out of nowhere to produce big seasons. Tamba Hali, Maurice Evans, Aaron Maybin. Three DE in the past decade to come out of nowhere to have double-digit sack seasons and be all-americans. Considering Odrick and the other crew of DT are perhaps the best in the nation, and the sheer quantity of talented, if raw, defensive ends, it’s not hard to project one stepping up.
And as far as the Offensive Line goes, I have the utmost confidence in Wis and Landolt, and though there are some question marks, we have the tools to get around it. Clark is a mobile QB, and Shuler is a 6th OL kind of TE. Phenomenal blocker, especially in the running game. I’m not concerned about the lines very much. Besides, Iowa loses enough on their own, especially on the DL. No Kroul, no King, no problem. It’s going to be a romp under the lights.
by PSUdevon on Jun 9, 2009 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, no King, no Kroul
But there is Klug returning at DT. He played a limited amont last year against PSU, but when he did play he made an impact. For instance, on PSU’s first drive he shot right through last year’s much more experienced O-line and drilled Royster for a loss on the first drive, saving a TD.
Iowa is also returning both Ballard and Clayborn who at least as much impact against PSU last year as King/Kroul and arguably more impact. For instance, it was Clayborn who sacked Clark on the first drive and caused the fumble on the 1 yard-line that led directly to Iowa scoring its first TD. Of course you are perfectly free to think there is “no problem” but keep in mind: Iowa is a dangerous team to look past.
Truth be told, I would rather have a couple of inexperienced DTs than 3 inexperienced O-linemen.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 11, 2009 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
King was the beast of that game
Every play, he was in the backfield. And when you put so much focus on one guy, it opens up holes for the others.
Iowa is always good on the lines, that’s what you’re known for. But don’t poo-poo Penn State’s guys. Again, they won’t be as good as the class last year, that’s not what I’m saying. I just see Iowa as a team losing two of it’s best defensive players, it’s only good offensive player, and a bunch more I probably don’t know about. That REEKS of Illinois, between 2007 and 2008.
by PSUdevon on Jun 11, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not poo-pooing PSU's D-line
What I’m saying is that Iowa’s O-line, being far more experienced, is going to have the advantage. I am also saying that both Clayborn and Ballard shouldn’t be underestimated. I would think PSU’s first drive last year against these two would have made that point and that was against two experienced OTs. This time they will be facing far less experienced OTs on the edges. Further, those same OTs won’t face experienced and high level competition until they meet Iowa. So you won’t really have a feeling for how well they’ll face that competition until the Iowa game. That, alone, would make me nervous.
I have no doubt that PSU’s experienced DTs will be a lot to handle for Iowa’s interior line. The DEs, however, will have all they can handle with Bulaga and Calloway.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 11, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s only good offensive player, and a bunch more I probably don’t know about
Wow – it’s ONLY good offensive player? Seriously? Astounding. I really hope PSU’s defense is thinking the same thing. Honest.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 11, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only good skills player
Like I said, I’m sure your OL is fine. But Stanzi is an average QB and none of your WRs impressed me much. Derrell Kulianos looked decent. But do you really trust Jewel Hampton to come CLOSE to replicating Greene’s ridiculously good numbers? I don’t.
by PSUdevon on Jun 11, 2009 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stanzi is probably gonna be pretty good
I can’t really make an assessment about the rest of Iowa, but Stanzi played well the second half of the year.
"From the outside looking in, you cannot understand it. From the inside looking out, you cannot explian it."
by psuphiman80 on Jun 11, 2009 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stanzi is average?
His execution was solid and he found a way to win going down the stretch – starting with the win over PSU. Stanzi’s performance in the air that day blew Clark out of the water – in some very difficult conditions. He continued to get better and just absolutely smoked Minny and the “speed” of the SEC in the Outback Bowl.
Take a look at the article on this blog about Stanzi. Yeah, I’d say he’s well above “average.”
Further, DJK had more production than Norwood – and that came in a run-first offense. As for Hampton, no one can expect him to be another Shonn Greene. But a RB doesn’t have to be Shonn Greene to be a good skill player. By that same standard Royster wouldn’t be a good skill player either. That doesn’t even touch on Iowa’s TEs.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 12, 2009 6:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clark was freaking concussed that game
And Norwood was our #3 wide receiver.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 13, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he had a concussion then why was he cleared to play?
That is a rather cheap excuse. He was cleared just days after it happened – and had another week on top of that to get healthy.
Norwood was #3 out of 3 outstanding WRs – any one of which would have been a #1 on any other team. If I remember correctly he helped PSU win both recent Big Ten titles.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 14, 2009 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Norwood
was great because of the other guys. He’s my favorite player, all time, but he was an over-the-middle kind of receiver. Derrick was the gadget play guy and Deon was the deep threat, and because defenses had to pay so much attention to those guys, Jordan found seams.
And Clark was concussed in the Ohio State game and missed the final drive. When you consider how well he played in his other games against great defenses also on the road, in OSU and USC, you can tell something wasn’t right that game. Here in State College, people were ripping the coaching staff for sticking with him when it was clear he wasn’t right. An average Clark beats you that game. He was simply horrible.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 14, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's what it takes to help you sleep at night
Clark’s real problem that day was the Iowa secondary and D-line. But I’m sure there are plenty of excuses for those who look hard enough.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 15, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clapping
As good a description of Penn State as you’ll find on the web. Great wrok.
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on Jun 9, 2009 5:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Youth and inexperience is not a recipe for a lack of success.
Look at the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes for instance. They had 10 Freshman and Sophomore starters, their O-line included two sophomore starters and a new QB yet they still made it to the BCS game. The schedule and offensive scheme is incredibly favorable for Penn State this year. I think that youth will not be a problem for this squad.
Finally, comparing a Tommy Bowden coached team with a JoePa coached team is laughable. Tommy Bowden is notoriously inconsistent with his squads versus expectations. Don’t get me wrong, PSU can easily be an 8-4 squad, but I think it will require a severe restriction of the offensive scheme (always a possibility) or injury (particularly to DC17).
by Cairo on Jun 10, 2009 9:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Look at the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes for instance.
PSU isn’t OSU – especially not in this decade.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 10, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I find O-line starts to be a stat that's a bit spurious.
Do we have data from last year about starts versus W/L record?
Look at some of the squads with fewer starts:
Oklahoma – 32
Kansas – 26
BYU – 23
Oregon -20
Utilizing this theory, Sam Bradford and Todd Reesing are really going to have trouble winning this year behind an inexperienced line. I’ll believe it when I see it.
by Cairo on Jun 10, 2009 9:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Looking at Penn State and those four teams
I bet that at least 4 of them finish with a ranking lower than their pre-season ranking.
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 10, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not tough for Okie
lose one game and they’re down.
by PSUdevon on Jun 10, 2009 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait for the season to start!
Here’s some things that I know as a follower of PSU:
PSU returns 5 All Big Ten performers from 2008 in Clark, Royster, Wisniewski(a plow horse), Odrick (defensive plow horse), and Bowman
OSU returns 1 All Big Ten performer from 2008 in Coleman
It’s great that you can point to teams that return more starters but just because they’re returning starters doesn’t mean that they’re good. Here’s another way to analyze what PSU and OSU return or lost.
PSU returns 1 All Big Ten plow horse on the OL in Wisniewski
OSU returns 0 All Big Ten plow horses on the OL
PSU lost 3 All BigTen plow horses on the OL but return 2 starters
OSU lost 1 All Big Ten plow horse on the OL and return 3 starters
So in conclusion, PSU’s 3 new OL starters got playing time and had to wait their turn to start because they played behind 3 All Big Ten players. Out of OSU’s 2 new starters on theOL, only 1 sat behind an All Big Ten player and none of the returning starters on OSU’s OL were All Big Ten so how good really are these 3 returning starters that OSU will throw out there this year?
by RNF18 on Jun 11, 2009 9:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Another stat
Out of all of those starters that are listed above, only 2 of them were All Big Ten last year and those 2 were:
Stefen Wisniewski PSU
Kyle Calloway Iowa
by RNF18 on Jun 11, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
First team all big ten, perhaps
But we both know those awards are a joke. And when the preseason all-Big Ten teams come out, I’ll be shocked if less than 7 Lions make it. Clark, Royster, Wis, Landolt, Odrick, Lee, Bowman. At least. Powell is a possibility at KR, Boone at P.
by PSUdevon on Jun 11, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All Big Ten awards a joke?
“And when the preseason all-Big Ten teams come out, I’ll be shocked if less than 7 Lions make it.”
So the All Big Ten awards based on production are a joke. But the ones based on predictions of what players might do are legit? Really?
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 11, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Both Kyle Calloway OT and Brian Bulaga OT, both of Iowa, were All Big Ten last year.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 11, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, one was a true freshman
the other was a (bad) first year-starter, and the other was the best offensive lineman behind Jake Long during his sophomore year at Michigan.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 11, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops
Excuse me, the third is Jim Cordle, who is meh, I’ll grant you.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Jun 11, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
focus is on PSU
I assume we could write an article here about how Ohio State will be overhyped…but they have proven to be such a perennial top 10 team that I guess they get the benefit of the doubt over Penn State when it comes to chances to succeed spectacularly again. And thus the thrust of this article…
by grahamfiller10 on Jun 11, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess we will have to wait until the fall to see for sure.
I understand that PSU is not very far removed from some dark ass years. And that we have only recently started regaining status as the powerhouse of old. With that comes doubts. Will PSU continue gaining momentum or fall back to a darker time? That is a question that can not be answered until the season is played out. I understand and embrace that criticism; I get it.
I do have a question though(especially for the many Iowa fans on here). Iowa had a good season last year(ripped my guts out). But are they not coming off of a few bad years of their own? What is to say Stanzi will continue to grow? Who will take the reigns of Greene? King and Kroul were great, but they are gone.
My point is that every single team in our league has questions, big and small. Every single team. Every fan of every team can put spin or their opinion on those questions. Outside of tOSU, what team has been consistently great recently? None.
So, if I concede(I think we all agree) that OSU is the best team in the Big11, who is second best? As a fan, I can honestly say that there is no other big11 game that scares me outside of tOSU. PSU is at least as/if not more talented than every other squad in conference, Iowa, MSU, a revamped UM will all be very good and tough teams this year, but they won’t be difinitively better than PSU. I see concerns about new starters, I understand, but who is definitivly better than PSU, who could you say would definitly beat them, right now? the point again is that Its June, teams have questions.
You could literally do this post about every team in the country. Of course this particular one piqued my personal interest and is why I am commenting. Maybe you felt certain PSU fans needed pushed off of a high horse? If 9-4 is falling back to earth for PSU what is 9-4 for Iowa or Illinois or any other damned school in the big11 right now outside our beloved tOSU?
For my homeristic opinion on PSU this season, I see 10 wins. I also think the big11 as a whole is ready to come back to life. Every team except Ind, Purdue, has good bowl game chances. I think the conference will be much more competitive than it has been recently, most of our schools seem to have been trending upward recently and we just need to put it all together come bowl time.
I hate this June BS, I want autumn now!
Black Shoes.
Basic Blues.
No Name.
All Game.
by Roland86 on Jun 12, 2009 3:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would also like to add that
PSU has the 9th best overall record since 2005. So its not 2000-2004 anymore, PSU isn’t exactly running around like a chicken with its head cut off looking for players at this point. Yes we have to replace experienced starters, but its not like Joe from the pool hall down the street is suiting up to play LT. While I would not like to see 8-4 as a season result, if that is considered an awful dropoff, I’ll take it opposed to 8-4 being a huge improvement, like it is for many other teams in the Big 10 right now. I like being top dog, but if I can’t win it all, top 10 is nothing to sneeze at.
Black Shoes.
Basic Blues.
No Name.
All Game.
by Roland86 on Jun 12, 2009 3:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
8-4 won't be top ten
Whoever wins the Big Ten won’t be able to have more than one loss. Second place won’t be far behind that. Or were you not referring to top ten in the Big Ten?
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 12, 2009 6:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a (PSU)fan, I can honestly say that there is no other big11 game that scares me outside of tOSU.
Seriously, I hope the PSU team feels the same. Honestly I do.
As to your questions. There is never a gaurentee that a QB won’t take a step back – including with Clark. Greene’s production won’t be replaced by any one RB, but by a stable of at least three of them. And King and Kroul will be hard to replace period – there is no question about it.
I think the question this article brings up revolves more on the point that all teams have SOME holes to fill. PSU has 14 of them. So, PSU wins the Big Ten and then loses 14 of the starters who got them there. Very similar to 2005 when PSU won the Big Ten and then lost 13 starters. The next season was 9-4. Nothing to sneeze at – but it also won’t win a Big Ten title or put PSU in the “elite” of the Big Ten that year.
No one is trying to rip on PSU.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 12, 2009 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I meant was...
There is no other game we will be underdogs in. At least not at the present time. Granted the game isn’t played on paper, but its June so thats all we really got right now. I do not know Iowa’s depth chart through and through, so i can’t speak for what guys you have that will step up. I assume you don’t have the best idea on us either, mainly who left, but not who the next in line guys are.
You think PSU will suffer, I think we will do fine enough. Just a difference of opinion from looking at paper and practice, thats it, nothing more. It is all speculation at this point. You can look at certain things to judge, but you just don’t know until gameday.
That said, Iowa under the lights at the Beav should be a blast and I am so looking forward to it. Night games in Happy Valley are an amazing experience. After that game I think we will have a better idea where the schools stand next season, Heres hoping for revenge on our part!
Black Shoes.
Basic Blues.
No Name.
All Game.
by Roland86 on Jun 12, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but its June so thats all we really got right now.
That’s the sad part.
“That said, Iowa under the lights at the Beav should be a blast and I am so looking forward to it. Night games in Happy Valley are an amazing experience. After that game I think we will have a better idea where the schools stand next season,”
With that I think everyone on and behind both teams can completely agree. It will be a great game….and this is how rivalries are born. Real rivalries – not the ones the Big Ten told us we are supposed to have – they usually come out of a grudge match.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 12, 2009 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately, it's going to be the same of "grudge match" we had against Michigan last year.
46-17. Good for getting out your frustration of past years, not for building a rivalry of consistently competitive games.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 13, 2009 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You honestly think the score is going to be 46-17
Or anything close to that? Really? You sound just like the blog over on Bleacher Report that was saying the same thing for the PSU game at Iowa this last year. How did that work out for ya? Wow.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 14, 2009 12:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally,
I expected a very close game. After we beat OSU, it seemed the consensus was undefeated, but I had a bad feeling about the Iowa game. While I do believe we should have won that game (don’t try and tell me there weren’t a bunch of calls that went your way by the end of the game), there’s no doubting who the better team is. Why do people doubt Penn State so much? Outside of at Iowa at Ohio State and at USC, we simply blew out every other team we played. Iowa next year isn’t much better than Michigan State last year. When we blow you out, and we will, I hope you’re man enough to eat your words. On the other hand, I’m quite scared of our game in Champaign.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 14, 2009 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, there weren't a buch of calls that went our way
that SHOULDN’T have. Very rarely does blaming the ref make you look like anything but a sore loser.
And you’re right, there is no doubt that Iowa was the better team that day. We simply outplayed you. And I doubt PSU this year because you are losing FOURTEEN starters. Do you know the last time you won the Big Ten and lost that many starters? It was 05 going into 06.
“When we blow you out, and we will, I hope you’re man enough to eat your words.”
Yup. If you “blow out” Iowa then I’ll be happy to come right here and admit I was wrong. Will you do the same when PSU loses?
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 15, 2009 7:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I won't have to
but if, by some strange aberration it did, I’ll be here.
Penn State loses a bunch of starters, but retains more at the most important positions than it had. Think about the difference between Morelli and Clark, and of having the cupboard well stocked. The 2005 season was our first GOOD season really of the decade, throwing out 2002. Since then 9-4 seasons have been the norm, and considering that we have considerably more depth than we did in 2005, I’m not all that worried.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 15, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Since then 9-4 seasons have been the norm"
Four season makes a “norm”? Do you realize that Iowa has a better win percentage this decade than does PSU?
What’s more your losses in 2006 were very similar to 2009. Most of your O-line, at least half your D-line, and most of your secondary. However, this year you lose ALL of your secondary and all of your WR corps on top of it all. Neither year did you lose any starting LBers. Also, as far as depth goes, you had roughly the same number of letter winners returning in 2006 as you do in 2009.
Finally, how can you call Iowa beating Penn State an “abberation” when it is the “norm” as you put it? Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone to Iowa. I’m certainly not saying anything is gaurenteed (I’ll leave the gaurenteed win-calling to you). But I am saying that I like Iowa’s chances a whole lot more than PSU’s.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 16, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
we lost our QB
And replaced him with Morelli. You could give him 2008 lineup to Morelli and he wouldn’t win more than 9 games. He was, simply, garbage.
We have better players to replace the grads in 2006 (look at how our recruiting classes were better between 2005-08 to 2002-06) and the leftover talent is better. We have 4 players who have All America potential in Lee, Bowman, Wis, and Royster. Nobody on that 2006 team was that good, except for Pos.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 17, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So now it's not depth but quality?
That is the ultimate homer fallback. We all say it. Most of PSU’s talent is concentrated in your LB corps with exceptions at QB and RB.
So now we have the waiting game until the real game is played on the field.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 17, 2009 6:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's depth and quality
Just because someone doesn’t start doesn’t mean they’re a bad player. Clark backed up Anthony Morelli and then went out and performed as the best QB in the Big Ten. Not saying these guys will, but to assume they’ll suck is just as preposterous.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Jun 17, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"but to assume they’ll suck is just as preposterous"
Who said they would “suck”? Believe it or not there is a big gap between top of the line performance and “sucking.”
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Jun 18, 2009 9:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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