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The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 4


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While the scoreboard is beginning to take shape, the competition remains in its infancy.  It's still anyone's game, so step up to the plate for the fourth installment of college football's smartest picks contest.


1. MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. EST (9/26), Big Ten Network

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts NORTHWESTERN by 7

This game might actually be more important than Penn State-Iowa, because they both want the same thing: 8 win seasons and an Outback Bowl berth. On paper, Northwestern is the favorite. They have a more efficient offense, a more talented signalcaller (the all of a sudden laser throwing Kafka), and will be at almost full strength on defense, unlike last week. But Minnesota showed extreme toughness at home against Cal, battling back when it seemed the game was turning into a blowout. The Minnesota Offensive Coordinator is showing improvement also, calling trick plays and mixing up the offense so that Weber doesn't focus so much on Decker. What will make the difference here? The Wildcats have a proven offensive system, the Gophers don't.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MINNESOTA by 7

Considering the history of this matchup I don't think there's any question we'll be treated to a close game.  The real question here is can a Wildcat defense that blows hot and cold stay stout against Minnesota's dynamic duo of Weber and Decker?  I like the Gophers to steal this one on the road, in the wake of a closer than expected showing against California.


2. MICHIGAN STATE at WISCONSIN, 12:00 p.m. EST (9/26), ESPN 360

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

Camp Randall, spurned last year by 5 Big Ten losses and a defensive breakdown at home against Ohio State, will be rocking this year. The Badgers have a competent quarterback and less dependence on the run game, meaning they should be 30 times better than last year. Of course they don't feature a defense, which slows down improvement. Michigan State's Kirk Cousins, the 2nd best QB in the land according to my updated rankings, is going to have a big day throwing slants and comeback routes against the sad-sack Badger secondary. Remember how calm Samuel Jackson was at the end of Pulp Fiction (the "be cool baby, be cool" statement, the gold briefcase)? That was Cousins in South Bend, right up until the horrific pick. Good news for anyone worried about this sophomore reacting badly to the thunder of Camp Randall. It also would be nice to see a stagnant MSU run game finally get off the ground and if there is any team to do it against, it's Wisconsin.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

One thing you can't deny is that picking games in the Big Ten is tough work this year.  Varying struggles, combined with a more competitive conference landscape make matches like this one a headache.  Will Michigan State live up to its reputation as an underachiever, riding two consecutive losses into a third defeat -- firmly cementing the season as a disappointment?  Or, will Wisconsin, the pariah of the offseason, fall back into a few bad habits in the pass game?  I see a Spartan team with a lot of potential, one that had Notre Dame on the ropes.  I think Kirk Cousins has a big day in Madison, and Dantonio gets the green and white back on track.

Star-divide

3. INDIANA at No. 23 MICHIGAN, 12:00 p.m. EST (9/26), ESPN 2

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 17

None of you are going to pick Indiana, so why analyze? Because I love the matchup and it poses some interesting questions. Will Michigan's struggling defensive line, hammered by the ND run game and scored on twice by run-focused EMU, be able to stop the suddenly run-effective Pistol? Does Indiana have the defensive options, outside of Kirlew and Middleton, to slow the third best run attack in the BCS? Will Michigan show the numerous defensive formations (4-3, 3-4, 3-3-5) to confuse the steady but unspectacular Chappell? Or will all my questions be mooted by a 41-10 thrashing?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 17

Michgian hasn't lost to Indiana in Ann Arbor in 42 years.  That streak will be extended Saturday.  In the easiest game of the day to pick, a Wolverine squad averaging 270 yards a game rushing will run over the Hoosiers.  Not so fast?  It's true that IU's run defense is solid, allowing a scant 228 yards over three games, and that Michigan will be without starting center David Molk (broken foot) and right guard David Moosman (dislocated shoulder).  Still, their run block will be strong enough to overpower IU's defensive front.  As Rich Rodriguez said after last week's win, "We had the intention of throwing a little bit more.  But why would you when you don't have to?"


4. ILLINOIS at No. 13 OHIO STATE, 3:30 p.m. EST (9/26), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts OHIO STATE by 14

A healthy dose of Juice Williams running and J Lehman doing his best Superman impression was enough for the Illini last time they visited Columbus. But there's no J Lehman (hell there's no MLB Martez Wilson, he's done for the year) and Juice Williams showed no comfort or passing touch against Mizzou. Although OSU is saying the right things, I can't see a hobbled 7 to 9 attack getting anywhere against the bend but don't break Buckeye defense. One other thing I'd like to discuss - USC loss aside, this is still OSU. Don't forget that until they lose more than two conference games in a single year.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts OHIO STATE by 14

The Fighting Illini always seem to put up a fight against the Buckeyes, especially in Columbus.  The last time Ron Zook and Juice Williams visited the Horseshoe they ran out the clock on Ohio State's No. 1 ranking, employing an impressive Williams/Mendenhall run tandem.  Not this time.  The fastest and meanest defense Columbus has seen in 5 years will bury a hesitant Juice Williams.  Meanwhile, the Illini will be forced to corral Terrelle Pryor without star linebacker Martez Wilson.  It's a frustrating day away for the Illini.


4. IOWA at No. 5 PENN STATE, 8:00 p.m. EST (9/26), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts PENN STATE by 10

Penn State might have to go one-dimensional if the run game gets stymied early by this solid Iowa front four. Will the Spread HD's favorite routes (wheel, sit down, sideline comeback route) succeed against the healthy and talented Iowa secondary? Will Ricky Stanzi throw an inexplicable pick early and kill all Iowa momentum? How can a frosh RB succeed in Happy Valley against Sean Lee and Bowman? Will the spiritual power of one hundred thousand fans drunk on revenge somehow form a ghostly 12th man in the shape of Jack Ham who plays every down next to Bowman, making tackles and screaming"We Are" the whole game? Oh my...Well Brick, that got out of hand.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PENN STATE by 14

Revenge is a dish best served white and at night.  Iowa ruined Penn State's perfect regular season in 2008 in front of a zealous home crowd.  This time, they'll have to go it alone -- in the den of 110,000 roaring Nittany Lions.  Iowa is banged up on offense, with left tackle Bryan Bulaga out with an undisclosed ailment, tight end Tony Moeaki sidelined with a sprained ankle, and receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos off the depth chart.  Penn State is banged up on defense, with star linebackers Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee probable.  I think this game belongs to Daryll Clark, a veteran averaging 274 yards in the air.  The Nittany Lions storm out to an early lead and they never look back.

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Picks, Picks, Picks...

I’ll take:

Minnesota by 3
Michigan State by 6
Michigan by 21
Ohio State by 24
and….
Penn State by 4 (this pains me, but I’m a realist)

They took the bar, the whole damn bar!

by recoveringfratguy on Sep 24, 2009 11:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Conference season = money time

I’m going with:

Northwestern by 3
Michigan State by 6
Michigan by 24
Ohio State by 27
Penn State by 10

by Chadnudj on Sep 24, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

the picks

Minnesota by 3
MSU by 7
Michigan by 21
Ohio State by 10
Penn State by 10

by DMAN2303 on Sep 24, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Minnesota by 7
Michigan State by 14
Michigan by 21
Ohio State by 17
Iowa by 3

by burncruisin on Sep 24, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"Today, we spell redemption R-O-N."

Anytime I can work an Anchorman quotation in, I’m a happy camper.

Seeking to make a move into the Top 10, the picks:

MN by 10
Wisc by 3
Mich by 17
OSU by 10
PSU by 14

Not a lot of room for movement this week…only one real “upset” on the board. C’est la guerre.

Courting mediocrity since 1964.

by lakeeriemonstar on Sep 24, 2009 12:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

So, about that quote...

NOT about Ron Zook. Just so we’re clear.

Courting mediocrity since 1964.

by lakeeriemonstar on Sep 24, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Week 4

Minnesota by 13
Wisconsin by 3
Michigan by 21
Ohio State by 17
Penn State by 3

by JRose on Sep 24, 2009 12:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm feeling rather conservative this week...

NU by 7
Wisky by 3
Michigan by 14
OSU by 10
Penn by 7

by hmlee on Sep 24, 2009 12:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's get it on...

MN by 7
MSU by 10
Rich Rod by 17
OSU by 14
PSU by 10

Don't sell yourself short Judge, you're a tremendous slouch.

by jerdogg1 on Sep 24, 2009 1:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What's the cure for 3 weeks of suckitude?

Definitely not these picks …

MN by 7 – Really liked how tough they played Cal last week.
Wisky by 3 – Taking the line on this one. Maybe the reverse jinx helps STATE turn this disaster of a season thing around?
UM by 13 – Forcier/Brown/Robinson are too much for the IU defense.
OSU by 14 – Without their start MLB, UI get run over by Pryor.
JoePa by 13 – Happy Valley. White out. 8pm kick off.

Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss. -- Lou Mannheim, Wall Street

by ChiSpartan on Sep 24, 2009 1:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This week is tough.

I told you last week was easy…

Minnesota by 7
Michigan State by 7
Michigan by 16
Ohio State by 10
Iowa by 7

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 24, 2009 2:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here we go again

NW by 10
Wisconsin by 10
Michigan by 10
Ohio State by 20
Iowa by 8

Its a funny story actually.

by Wad on Sep 24, 2009 3:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's game time

Northwestern by 4
Wisconsin by 6
Michigan by 17
Ohio State by 13
Penn State by 10

"I'm driven by greatness" - Derrick Williams

by HookMania on Sep 24, 2009 3:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

ohh and this

The Nittany Lions storm out to an early lead and they never look back.

I so hope that’s true but with Penn State’s adversion to coming out with all cylinder’s firing makes me skeptical. See games with Ill and UM last year as proof. Of course there’s also the Wisc and MSU games as counterpoints.

….still skeptical though

"I'm driven by greatness" - Derrick Williams

by HookMania on Sep 24, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Minnesota -3
Wisconsin -3
Michigan -10
Ohio State -10
Penn State -14

Tough slate. Need some damn ranked teams so we can get uspet points.

by Bud Elliott on Sep 24, 2009 4:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes Sir

But picking Mini NW is a chore in itself…

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Sep 24, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

jNW by 3
MSU by 7
UM by 21
tOSU by 7
PSU by 7

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Sep 24, 2009 4:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Somebody has to win these games

but I sure don’t know who

Minnesota by 10
MSU by 10
Michigan by 20
Ohio State by 14
Penn State by 3

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Sep 24, 2009 6:27 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I swore I had last week in the bag. Stupid BYU.

Minny @ jNU

  Honestly, this is a game of “who do I care less about but still despise with all of my heart?” jNU has been playing horribly, but Minny is just horrible, so I’m going jNU here. Call it 28-24. If Decker is injured and unable to play, call it 28-10.

MSU @ Wisky

  MSU should be the better team. Wisky is not good right now. Wisky does not lose at home, especially to a team that cannot run (MSU can’t yet). I’m going with Wisky in Camp Randall. 27-24.

IU @ UM

  Isn’t it Indiana that always plays well against UM? Or am I making that up? Does it even matter this year? No, the answer to that last one is no. UM wins, 35-17.

Illini @ OSU

  I hate Illinois. Zook is a douche. OSU rolls. 42-16. (yes, I realize I’m putting a 26 point spread on an in-conference game)

Iowa @ PSU

  I cannot, and will not, pick against Iowa until somebody shows me that they can move the ball against them and score. PSU has yet to show that they can run the ball, even with Royster, so I think this game stays close and tight. If Stanzi plays well, Iowa wins. If not, PSU wins. My guess is Stanzi plays well. Enough. (and I’m a homer) Iowa, 20-17.

by imadirtyoldman on Sep 24, 2009 7:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Iowa has no chance

but, they had no chance last year either. Orin 2004, 2003, 2002…you get the picture. Iowa by 3. The rest are not primetime, so not on my radar.

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe. --Albert Einstein

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 24, 2009 8:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Picks

Minnesota by 7
Wisky by 7
Michigan by 24
Ohio State by 10
Iowa by 10

I wash born here, an I wash raished here, and dad gum it, I am gonna die here

by Gabby Johnson on Sep 24, 2009 9:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Minnesota by 4
MSU by 6
Michigan by 31
OSU by 20 (this one has classic Zookening written all over it … until you realize there’s no way in hell he does it twice in a row at OSU)
PSU by 3

by SpartanDan on Sep 24, 2009 9:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Pick % So Far
70% Mini…fools
75% PSU…better
55% MSU…Closest picked game so far this year, way to do your homework everyone…
100% Mich…RichRod!
100% OSU…No confidence in Uncle Ronny? Nope. Smart.

So overall, you’re all fools for believing Tim Brewster can beat NW on the road, MSU is a toss up at Camp Randall, and Iowa should go down in Happy Valley.

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Sep 24, 2009 9:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

1) Minny at jNW – JNW by 10
2) MSU at Wisky – Wisky by 7
3) IU at MI – MI by 14
4) IL at tOSU – tOSU by 10
5) Iowa at PSU – (homer, plus I’m so middle of the pack I get to pick with my heart) Iowa by 1

by txhawkeye on Sep 24, 2009 10:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Great Pick

Iowa by 1. Hmm. Cannot imagine why you would pick “1” as a margin, considering 3, 7, 10 would probably produce more points.

Oh well, maybe I’ll figure it out one day.

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Sep 24, 2009 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, look where I am in the standings, my failure to recall the 3 point rule, and that I really just hope Iowa wins. If I’m right I ought to get extra bonus points for being a dumbass.

by txhawkeye on Sep 26, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

setting a new standard in suck

Northwestern by 7 (Weber goes out of his way to stare Decker down)
MSU by 10 (Dantonio =/= J.L. Smith)
Michigan by 7 (U of M’s offense sputters while IU plays it’s best game of the season, yet still can’t beat the Wolverines)
OSU by 9 (Juice looks good for 1, possibly even 2 quarters, then he looks like the real Juice and OSU cruises)
PSU by 7 (tough to really know how good Penn State is this year until after this game)

by Estrada on Sep 25, 2009 1:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I can do better than 7 points

can’t have a sophomore slump if your first effort sucked, right?

NW by 3
MSU by 10
UM by 24
OSU by 17
PSU by 4

We are gonna shock them with 5,000 mega watts of raw ROO POWER.

by psuwxman on Sep 25, 2009 8:19 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Time to vault up the leaderboard

Northwestern by 1 (the Gophers lose yet another heartbreaker to the Cats)
Michigan State by 14 (I’m contractually obligated to always pick against the BADgers)
Michigan by 19 (Indiana is a bad 3-0 football team, and as a Gopher fan, I know bad 3-0 football teams)
Ohio State by 17 (never trust a Ron Zook-coached team. NEVER)
Penn State by 13 (the Nits don’t lose at home at night…or at least I hope they don’t)

by gophersports on Sep 25, 2009 9:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here we go...

Minny by 6
MSU by 7
Michigan by 20
Ohio State by 13
Penn State by 7

by Pete Rossman on Sep 25, 2009 9:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Will this week's picks count for the Scoreboard? I hope so.

Minny by 3
Sparty by 7
Michigan by 18
OSU by 17
Iowa by 4

by RossWB on Sep 25, 2009 12:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This weeks guesses:

Minnesota by 10
Michigan State by 7
Michigan by 24
Ohio State by 4
Penn State by 10

Put a tarp on that circus! - showtime @ BSD

by bconway6 on Sep 25, 2009 5:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

just copy these picks...

…if you want to be the one who ties me for the win this week!

jNW by 7
MSU by 3
Michigan by 21
OSU by 17
Iowa by 4

by SeattleHawkeye on Sep 25, 2009 8:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, I guess these guys look pretty stupid

You do WATCH Big Ten football? Anyway, picking Penn State by double digits was absurd.

In the end, it was the loud Iowa fans in bright yellow clothing that stood out in sad Happy Valley. -- New York Times on PSU's so-called White Out

by StoopsMyAss on Sep 29, 2009 8:00 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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