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The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 5

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Did you score less points than a Big Ten offense in Week 4?  Are you ready to put up Nintendo numbers?  Here's your chance.

1. No. 22 MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/3), Big Ten Network

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 10

4-0 versus 1-3 never looked this evenly linked, with Vegas putting this as a pick 'em line. Everyone's confidence was shaken last week as Michigan's golden boy, Tate Forcier, sustained a shoulder injury and the Michigan defense continued to give up points and yards at will. So the question remains - Will this be the week that a Wolverine opponent hangs 50 on the injury prone and harried Michigan D?

I see two keys to this game. Key One. Michigan QB's need to learn to release the ball before they get hurried and take big hits. The instant Robinson and Forcier learn this, the team improves. Key Two. Michigan would do well to take a page from Wisconsin's defensive playbook of last week. The Badgers stacked the line and dropped into a zone coverage that stopped eight yard dump offs and forced Cousins and Nichols to throw into traffic. While the Spartans made some big plays, the QB's also threw three picks.

The magic continues for the Maize and Blue.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 7

Michigan somehow managed to make it through the entire month of September without leaving Ann Arbor.  That will change quickly as famous Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier leaves the friendly bubble of the Big House and enters hostile Spartan Stadium.  The good news for the Wolverines?  Forcier is battle tested and good as advertised.  The young leader has already thrown 2 late fourth quarter touchdowns to carry Michigan past Notre Dame and Indiana.  The health of Forcier's shoulder, and its impact on the passing game, will determine whether Michigan can prey on a Spartan secondary that ranks 10th in conference.  The bad news for the Wolverines?  Their defense showed its vulnerability against Indiana last week, giving up 33 points to the Hoosiers at home -- and that's not counting IU's missed opportunities.  I think the shaky Spartans steal their second in a row from Big Brother, if they can take care of the football and avoid the interception bug that plagued them against Wisconsin.


2. WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/3), ESPN 360

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts WISCONSIN by 10

A close enough line to be a pick 'em, I continue my streak of picking against Minnesota. I don't really think they turned a corner against Northwestern in the run game, I think EVERYONE turns the corner against that Wildcat defense. Wisky has a consistent offensive scheme that hasn't been slowed by anyone and a quarterback who all of a sudden has weapons, yes folks, fully developed weapons in the Badger passing game! 

LAW BUCKEYE predicts WISCONSIN by 10

It's tough to pick against Minnesota.  They've faced a more difficult schedule than the Badgers.  They've won convincingly in conference on the road.  They're also playing in their newly christened stadium, a place where they're undeniably resilient.  It goes against my better judgment, but the truth is I like what I'm seeing in Madison, specifically what I'm seeing in Scott Tolzien.  He's played three games without throwing an interception.  He sliced and diced the Spartan secondary last week for 243 yards.  Sure, Michigan State is 10th in conference in passing defense and Minnesota is 5th.  But the Golden Gophers are 9th against the run, and it just so happens Wisky can run the ball (2nd in the Big Ten).

Star-divide


3. NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/3), Big Ten Network


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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts NORTHWESTERN by 3

Vegas made Purdue a touchdown favorite early, obviously citing the horrendous Northwestern defense as a reason. No pressure on the QB, no tackling, and weak secondary play has made the Wildcat D the most disappointing unit in the Big Ten. Can they improve against a healthy Purdue offense that has been better than everyone thought?

I see another Kafka-esque game from the Big Ten leader in passing yards. 27-35, 330 yards, two touchdowns, and probably one inopportune pick. It'll be enoough against a Purdue defense has been picked apart by NIU, Akron, Oregon (late in the game), and a Wildcat option of Notre Dame's when Clausen went down.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PURDUE by 7

In every category but one Purdue has grossly exceeded expectations.  They came within 1:01 of besting Oregon at Autzen Stadium, losing by just 2 points.  You might remember a Top 10 team that just was disemboweled there last  weekend.  They came within 24.8 seconds of handing Notre Dame its second loss.  You might have heard, that's a BCS bowl favorite.  The bottom line is Purdue is 12 points away from being 4-0.  It's high time they pull one out.  Northwestern's defense has left something to be desired.  This week, Hope prevails in West Lafayette.  Boiler up!


3. No. 8 OKLAHOMA at No. 17 MIAMI, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/3), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MIAMI by 7

Sam Bradford is my difference maker here. If he stays out, the Sooners stand a better chance of winning. Yup, that's right. Mr. Heisman needs to take a slow recovery, allow Landry Jones's Mustache to run the show for a couple more weeks, and then spring into action during Big 12 play. We all saw what a good defense and a bad quarterback could do against Miami. Does Bob Stoops really want to push a fragile Bradford out there with the green O-Line that caused the injury in the first place with it's missed block? Vegas likes Ohhhhklahoma by a touchdown here, but everyone is betting under that spread because it's a road game and the Hurricanes have some playmakers on a much improved offense. I'm taking the Canes at home and praying those vicious crossing routes and screens they ran so effectively against FSU and GT go all night against Oklahoma.

By the way, I was commenting earlier on the names of these Southern quarterbacks. Case? Colt? Landry? What in the world? I guess this is how you name kids down in Texas and them parts - Take a look at whatever you're drinkin' or whatever is in your backyard...And name your kid after it. "Bill, we're knocking down some Colt 45's tonight HEY THERE'S A NAME FOR LIL PRECIOUS!" 

LAW BUCKEYE predicts OKLAHOMA by 14

Sure, it's possible that Miami just didn't show up last week in Blacksburg.  More likely, they're a young team that's still a year ahead of schedule.  I didn't see anything in the Hurricane pash rush last week that makes me think they can punish a dangerously inexperienced Sooner offensive line.  Bradford will play and Shannon will pay.


4. No. 7 USC at No. 24 CALIFORNIA, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/3), ABC

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GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts CALIFORNIA by 7

Vegas loves USC by a touch early, but the rash of injuries put this game in doubt. I hate picking USC to win because I dislike jumping on the bandwagons of bad offenses. Stefon Johnson, Ronald Johnson, the 13 people who left for the NFL Draft last year...This isn't 2002-2008 USC. I know the Oregon evisceration threw a monkey wrench into people's perceptions, but Cal has a functioning offense on which I will stake my fortune for this night only. Please God Hating USC, continue your work! 

LAW BUCKEYE predicts USC by 10

I'll admit.  It's not often that Los Angeles boos its Trojans.  And Pete Carroll hasn't exactly proven that his offense deserves respect.  But the upsetting loss of Stephon Johnson will fuel the fire in these young warriors.  Could Cal bounce back?  Sure, they have talent in spades.  But since the 2004 season I haven't seen Tedford prove he can muster a four quarter effort against premiere competition.  And let's face it, no one is afraid of playing in a place named after a fruit.  Strawberry Canyon shows it has more faults than the Michigan State Spartans.  Fight On!

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oh jesus

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Sep 30, 2009 8:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If you cried tacit collusion...

This is for you. Graham and I share only one pick in common.

This is going to be a bloodbath. In the immortal words of Bear Grylls, “awesome.”

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Law Buckeye on Sep 30, 2009 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And let’s face it, no one is afraid of playing in a place named after a fruit. Strawberry Canyon shows it has more faults than the Michigan State Spartans. Fight On!

The Orange Bowl used to be intimidating…Great Cali-MSU reference, by the way.

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Sep 30, 2009 8:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's a fun week

MSU by 9
Back is against the wall. I think that they fight out starting now.

Minnesota by 8
Minnesota is the better team.

Northwestern by 7
Purdue loses another close one.

Oklahoma by 13
Miami is a dropped TD pass by an FSU tight end from starting 1-3. All that they’ve shown is that they have the athletes to stop the option. They’ve had that for 30 years.

USC by 11
If one of my picks has to be wrong, I’m hoping it’s this one.

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 30, 2009 9:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This can't be any worse than my last two awful weeks, right?

Yes, yes it can.

Michigan by 4
(Two thoughts: whatever the over-under is, it’s not high enough, and I’m assuming Dantonio will kill whatever offensive momentum we get going early by putting in Nichol again for no apparent reason.)
Minnesota by 6
(First Axe Game in the new stadium. No way in hell is Minnesota losing that.)
Purdue by 7
(Purdue has looked competent in at least two of their games. Northwestern … well, they trashed Towson, but they barely escaped EMU and lost to Syracuse.)
Oklahoma by 17
(Bob Stoops only chokes in bowl games.)
USC by 16
(USC always loses one inexplicable game. They rarely lose two. Cal is infinitely better at home, but not good enough.)

by SpartanDan on Sep 30, 2009 10:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

One measly point

That’s probably a record for futility, isn’t it?

by SpartanDan on Oct 4, 2009 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

: )

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 4, 2009 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

MSU by 3

Minn by 7

NW by 7

OU by 10

Cal by 6

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Sep 30, 2009 10:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

So I said I would avoid the soph slump and best 5 points last week

and promptly scored two.

Here’s to suckitude.

UM by 3
Wisc by 10 (I think John Clay has a helluva game)
Purdue by 10
OU by 7
Cal by 7

We are gonna shock them with 5,000 mega watts of raw ROO POWER.

by psuwxman on Sep 30, 2009 10:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ugh this is a tough week...

And I need to get back on top!

Michigan by 7
Wisconsin by 14
Northwestern by 3
Oklahoma by 7
Cal by 3

by hmlee on Sep 30, 2009 10:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"Just gotta keep grindin', takin' it day by day, not givin' in to the fight..."

This week’s picks are dedicated to fired Tribe Manager Eric Wedge, who can always hang his hat on the fact that he wasn’t the worst team leader in Cleveland this fall (Mangini…I’m looking at you…and that jelly donut you’re holding).

Mich by 14 (I’m officially a believer. The Blue is back.)
Wisc by 7 (Score is closer than the game. Too much ground game.)
Purdue by 3 (These teams are offensive. And they score a lot!)
Okla by 10 (The wind comes sweepin’ down the plains and takes out the ’Canes.)
USC by 14 (Do we ever see the Bears show up against the Men of Troy?)

Courting mediocrity since 1964.

by lakeeriemonstar on Sep 30, 2009 11:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Pickin'

Meeechigan by 6
Minny by 4
Purdue by 7
Oklahoma by 13
USC by 4

by RossWB on Sep 30, 2009 11:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

need to be better this week

Michigan by 13
Wisconsin by 14
Northwestern by 10
Miami by 7
Southern Cal by

by burncruisin on Oct 1, 2009 2:41 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Tough games

Sparty by 7
Sconnies by 4
N’Western by 10 (take the over)
Miami by 4
SC by 10. The manner in which Cal got run last week probably has a hangover for a few weeks.

by hoosierdaddynow on Oct 1, 2009 6:33 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Gotta do better than last week's 4....

Sparty by 3 — an instant classic.
Minnesota by 7 — Wisconsin’s slip back to mediocrity begins.
N’Western by 14 — it’s time.
Miami by 3 — Pride check for the Canes
Cal by 10 — USC is not that good, and Cal is ready for a bounceback.

by Chadnudj on Oct 1, 2009 8:17 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

time for a whole lot of terrible

Michigan by 7 (I think Sparty out-gains U of M but makes a mistake late in the game allowing Michigan to have more late game heroics from Skinny Forcier)
Wisconsin by 10 (coin toss)
Purdue by 7 (they’re better than expected and NU is worse than expected, and I’m assuming these trends continue)
Oklahoma by 7 (Miami will be the real deal next year, but they’re just a bit green to win the big ones at the moment)
USC by 10 (I think Cal has had their all too familiar late season collapse a bit early, while USC continues to mature)

by Estrada on Oct 1, 2009 9:22 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Week 5

Michigan by 13
Minnesota by 4
Purdue by 7
Oklahoma by 21
USC by 17

by JRose on Oct 1, 2009 9:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Trying to reverse 4 weeks of suckitude ...

1. scUM by 3 (reverse jinx?)
2. Wisky by 7
3. Purdon’t by 7
3. The U by 10
4. Da (Cal) Bears 7

Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss. -- Lou Mannheim, Wall Street

by ChiSpartan on Oct 1, 2009 9:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Damnit

I had a fighting chance up until this week. These games are all horrible, and my picks won’t do shit. But here’s a shot:

UM @ MSU
  Why has nobody noticed that this is a trap game for UM? UM has their eyes firmly set on Kinnick next weekend, they’re on the road this week, and the best team UM has beaten thus far is the JoJo School for the Blind (yes, ND, I’m looking at you). UM is the better team, but MSU rides it’s home fans to a win. 27-21.

Wisky @ Minny
  I don’t know what to think of either of these teams. Wisky was horrid down the stretch last year, and the team hasn’t changed personnel-wise to justify thinking anything different. Ditto Minny. And yet both teams are doing well to start this season. Which one is better? I’m going with Wisky, if only because Minny is coached by a raging idiot. Wisky pulls off the road win, 24-20.

jNU @ PU
  jNU has more talent, don’t they? PU was supposed to be atrocious, right? Why is this game so tough to call then? Maybe because jNU plays worse defense than Michigan, and PU has played lightyears better than anybody expected them to. I’m picking the home team here; PU 28-24.

OU @ Miami
  FINALLY. Miami lost, so people got off their knees. Good Lord, Miami was bad last year, and somehow they made the top 10 after beating an overrated FSU squad? Maybe next year, but not this year. OU is a better team, and Miami’s fans aren’t rabid enough to make that stadium rock loud enough to bother OU. I say OU wins, 35-28.

USC @ Cal
  USC is hurt. Their backups aren’t ready. Cal was looking forward to this game when they were rolled by Oregon, and they will prove it this weekend. Cal dominates, 35-17.

I’m so fucked this week.

by imadirtyoldman on Oct 1, 2009 9:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Week 5 Picks

UM by 4
Wisky by 7
Purdue by 3
Oklahoma by 13
Cal by 4

They took the bar, the whole damn bar!

by recoveringfratguy on Oct 1, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Movin Up

Sparty by 8 (love me some upset points)
Badgers by 14
Boilers by 13
Sooners by 10
USC by 17

Its a funny story actually.

by Wad on Oct 1, 2009 10:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Week 5

MSU by 6 – neither team will stop the other, the kicking game will make the difference in MSU’s favor, and I’ll be danged if I pick Michigan.
Wisconsin by 10 – Scott Tolzien’s the best QB in the Big 10 you haven’t heard of.
Northwestern by 7 – I do not feel good about this one, but someone’s gotta win.
Oklahoma by 10 – I do feel Miami is a tad overrated.
USC by 14 – The Trojans have already lost their random Pac-10 game this year.

by Pete Rossman on Oct 1, 2009 11:13 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Like the Big Ten in BCS games, I'm thinking this might be a down year for me in picks

Michigan State by 3 (MSU can’t be as bad as they have shown, can they?)
Minnesota by 7 (Better Dead Than Red/We don’t need no stinkin’ Badgers)
Purdue by 13 (The annual tailspin after the NU-MN game begins for the Cats)
Oklahoma by 10 (I’m still not sold on the Canes and I don’t know why)
USC by 17 (making Minny’s decent game against Cal look worse and worse)

by gophersports on Oct 1, 2009 11:25 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

We don't need

that attitude around here. This is the year the Big Ten is turning it around!

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 1, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michigan State by 7
Minnesota by 7
Purdue by 3
Miami by 10
Cal by 7

goodluck this week, Big10

by Bud Elliott on Oct 1, 2009 11:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

atta miami

The Rivalry, Esq.
Big Ten Football: 3 Yards and a Cloud of Field Turf

by grahamfiller10 on Oct 1, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

1) Michigan @MSU – Michigan by 7
2) Wisconsin @ Minny – Wiconsin by 10
3) jNW @ Purdue – Purdue by 10
4) OU @ Miami – OU by 7
5) USC @ Cal – USC by 14

I changed my jNW/Purdue pick just so I wouldn’t pick ALL road teams. And still, I have no confidence,

by txhawkeye on Oct 1, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Still playing catch-up...

Sparty by 3
’Sota by 3
Train conductors by 4
Oklahoma (O-K!!!) by 10
Bears by 4

Don't sell yourself short Judge, you're a tremendous slouch.

by jerdogg1 on Oct 1, 2009 12:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Back to School = Scatter brained

I longed on last Thursday specifically to post my predictions and then lost my ever-lovin’ mind and just flat out forget to do it! Didn’t realize it until the 3rd quarter of PSU-Iowa, and by then I was having a nervous breakdown for other reasons. Hopefully I can score enough points this week to make up for my brain melt.

MSU by 4
Wisky by 14
Purdue by 7 (crossing my fingers for my brother’s sanity)
Oklahoma by 10
USC by 17 (Cal meltdown part 2)

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Oct 1, 2009 2:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

my picks

Mich by 3
Minn by 7
Purdue by 7
Miami by 7
Cal by 10

BONUS PICK: Illinois by 3 over PSU. Mark it down. (And if not, Illinois will probably get beat 63-10 like in 2005)

by DMAN2303 on Oct 1, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ok then...this can't go well

MSU by 3 – I like them at home, and they have nothing to lose

Wisc by 3

Purdue by 7 – Can’t I just take the over? It’s gotta be around 60

OU by 3

Cal by 6

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 1, 2009 6:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

time to increase my lead

MSU by 3
Minn by 7
Purdue by 4
OU by 7
USC by 7

by SeattleHawkeye on Oct 2, 2009 2:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

hmmm

UM by 7
Wisc by 3
Purdue by 10
OU by 9
USC by 17

"I'm driven by greatness" - Derrick Williams

by HookMania on Oct 2, 2009 4:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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