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Ten Predictions for the Big Ten in 2010

Let's take a quick detour from the Decade in Review series to sneak a peek at the future of the Big Ten.  In the wake of its most successful postseason since 2002, the conference stands poised to strong arm its way back into the elite ranks.

Danny-hope-thumb-537x392-15303_medium
Could this be the scene in South Bend in Week 1?

Here are ten predictions for the Big Ten in 2010.

1. The Big Ten will continue to come up short against marquee opponents

Sure, we'll enter 2010 as one of the deepest -- if not the deepest -- league(s) in the sport.  But the Big Ten will continue its struggles against elite out of conference foes in September.  A young Penn State defense will get overrun on national television in the second week of the regular season when they travel to Tuscaloosa to meet (presumptively) No. 1 Alabama.  Similarly, Minnesota will get torched on September 18th when USC (and its new crop of 5-star tight ends) comes to town.  The lone bright spot will be the way Ohio State handles a Miami team that isn't physical enough to battle the Buckeyes on the ground

Counterpoint: Two of the conference's top three teams won't play an elite opponent.  The closest Iowa gets is a September 18 visit to ArizonaWisconsin's visit to Arizona State is next best.

2. The good guys will win the Big Ten/Pac 10 Challenge

In 2009 the league earned its first victory in the Big Ten/ACC Basketball Challenge.  In 2010, it will represent itself well against the West Coast for the first time in three seasons.  Iowa will dominate Arizona, and Wisconsin will outlast Arizona State to give the Big Ten a 2-1 edge against the Pacific 10 in out of conference play.

3. Purdue will open the season with a win in South Bend

A talented, underrated Boilermaker squad will shock the Irish in Brian Kelly's first game as head coach by upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend.  Purdue will start the 2010 season 5-1, before losing at Ohio State.  Danny Hope's squad will become bowl eligible the following week at Illinois, and the Boilers will end the regular season 8-4.

4. The Big Ten Championship will go through Iowa City

If the Iowa Hawkeyes don't claim at least a share of the 2010 Big Ten title they've got no one to blame but themselves.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State -- four of the league's top six -- will play at Kinnick Stadium.

Kinnick-night-500w_medium
The road ends here.

5. If Wisconsin wins on October 16th, it will do no worse than share the conference title

When Ohio State visits the foul-weather fortress that is Camp Randall Stadium, the Badgers will have an opportunity to pay the Buckeyes back for a trilogy of defeats in 2007, 2008, and 2009.  As Bret Bielema says, they'd love nothing more.

If the Badgers can upset the Buckeyes in Madison, this source says they'll do no worse than split the conference title.  How so?  Well, even with a loss the following week in Iowa City, I'll bet a resurgent Ohio State team takes down the Hawkeyes on November 20th.  The result would be a 3-way tie at the top.

Star-divide

6. Michigan will win at least nine games

I'm being serious.  Although the Wolverines hit rock bottom in 2009 -- dropping seven of their last eight contests -- embattled head coach Rich Rodriguez will finally taste success in Ann Arbor in 2010.  The introduction of 27 hand-tailored recruits will be the catalyst for a revitalized program.  The Wolverines will jump out to a 5-1 start in conference play (8-2 overall) before losing to Wisconsin in Week 11.  They'll have the chance to secure a New Years Day bowl bid the following week against Ohio State.

And by the way.  The "Rivalry" will feature two ranked teams for the first time since 2007.

P77537244_medium
Will next year be a forgettable one for Joe Paterno?

7. Penn State will lose at least four games

With the loss of a veteran quarterback, and bushels of defensive experience, Penn State will struggle to re-gain its traction at the top of the conference in 2010.  After an embarrassing loss against Alabama in Week 2, the Nittany Lions will again be frustrated by Iowa.  Losses to Michigan and Ohio State will complete a lackluster season.

8. At least one Big Ten coach will be fired by season's end

After several years of relative stability, Big Ten sidelines will get shaken up at the end of 2010, with at least one head coach getting shown the door.  Illinois' Ron Zook leads the layoff list.

9. If a Big Ten team plays for the national championship, it will bring home the crystal football.

Tressel-leading-team_medium
Does Jim Tressel still have a few tricks up his sleeve?

Don't get me wrong, it's a big if.  But if a team from the Midwest earns a spot to the BCS National Championship Game in Glendale, Arizona, it will have what it takes to get the win.  It's no secret that the team in the best position to make the MNC is Ohio State, who will almost certainly open the season in the Top 3 in the polls.  If the Buckeyes can handle an early out of conference showdown against a ranked Hurricanes club, and run the table in conference, they'll be primed to return to the big dance.  If they get there, they'll get even.

10. The Big Ten Conference will announce plans to expand

Exactly one year after opening the flood gates, the Big Ten Council of Presidents will bless plans for expansion by announcing an agreement in principle to add a twelfth athletic member.  Just who will get the nod?  Only time will tell...

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If PSU loses to Michigan, I’ll eat my hat. It’s our only marquee home game, and I still do not believe that RR will ever have great success at UM, at least for now. I just don’t see where the 4+ game jump comes from same as I didn’t last year. The only thing UM had going for it was Brandon Graham, and well he is gone. Its not that I am overconfident in PSU, I feel 4 losses on the way as well, its just that Michigan has Greg Robinson and well…
Its ok, its one of those paper diner-cook type hats, so it wont be that bad.

I predict Pryor gets a freight train of Heisman love and then has a tremendous gack of a game against Iowa when he and Stanzi have a INT race, but Iowa prevails.

I predict Iowa takes the crown, but tOSU still claims another consecutive big ten title, because Iowa loses to someone(ahem, jNW) and tOSU loses to them. We know how fond tOSU is of sharing with teams that have beaten them.

I wish Kafka had another year at Northwestern….I love what coach Fitz is doing there, and If PSU can’t beat Iowa or win the conference, I want it to be them 10 times out of 10. Fitz will lead them to the Rose before tooooo much longer. I hope so.

Also, the big ten should just annex Canada. That would be a stunning move.

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Feb 5, 2010 4:34 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Agreed regarding Michigan

Despite the talent at linebacker that is departing, Penn State will still have a very good defensive line, an improved secondary, and (minimum) solid linebacking corps. More important than talent, though, the Penn State defense is always among the B10’s most disciplined and will match up well against RR’s offensive schemes.

On the other side of the ball, I can’t really opine on changes occurring on Michigan’s defense, but losing Graham has to be huge. Penn State’s offensive line played perhaps their best game of the season against LSU and should be improved next year. They should be able to move the ball on Michigan at least as well as last year.

Don’t get me wrong: Penn State drops a couple games next season and should not be regarded as a favorite to win the conference. But they match up well against Michigan and that is one of the games I am least concerned about. (Definitely more concerned with NW, that quick short passing game could be a touch mathchup for us and I think Persa is going to be good.)

by rbz14 on Feb 5, 2010 8:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What does PSU lose next year?

On D, I know they’ve lost Hull, Lee, and Bowman at LB; Odrick at DE; and Wallace at CB. That’s 4 of the top 5 tacklers. Who do they have waiting in the wings at LB? Who replaces Wallace and Odrick?

On O, Clark (obvsly) and Quarless are gone. Does the OL return intact? Royster coming back is huge for PSU. Who replaces Clark? Newsome? Still seems a bit raw, but could be a dangerous runner.

by georgiablue on Feb 5, 2010 10:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The linebackers are gone. A lot of the guys jockeying for a starting spots have had a decent amount of game experience (Lee missed like half the season) and/or are higher-rated talent than PSU has used to reload the position in the past. Mauti in particular was suppose to start over Hull last season, and is being hyped as the next flesh-eating great-white-linebacker. We will see. Ogbu returns at DT, he may not be Odrick but he should be very good. Crawford should come into his own at DE and be very good. The secondary all started at times last year, Morris/Lynn/Suckay/Astorino. Morris was only a freshman and should improve; Astorino should be healthier (shoulder).

QB is a huge question/issue. The safe money is Newsome will be the starter but who knows. Raw/could be good runner is pretty much the assessment so far. But at least he can’t be Morelli, right? Lastly, I believe 4/5 of the Oline return.

While I may be coming across as a huge homer/chest-thumper, I am pretty confident the D will be at least solid next year. QB is a very likely sore spot, but the running game should be pretty good.

Losing four games is possible but would be a pretty big disappointment. “Will lose at least 4 games” is kind of off-base as far as the team I see. The caveat of course is that with no real experience at QB, you can’t really guarantee anything.

by rbz14 on Feb 5, 2010 11:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

(We are having a historically slow motion day at court today, hence the treatises)

by rbz14 on Feb 5, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

YUP

Phil Steele and everyone else goes nuts over veteran QB’s…which is understandable. But NW is a good example of a system being the reason for a solid 2009, not a veteran quarterback (taking nothing away from Kafka, who was great).

by grahamfiller10 on Feb 5, 2010 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Defense: Odrick will be a big loss, but I never worry much about our defensive line. Larry Johnson SR – for my money – is the best position coach out there. We still have guys like Ogbu and Devon Still to take over. Plus, Jack Crawford will return along with promising guys like Sean Stanley and Kevion Latham The only concern we ever have with the d-line is depth.

Linebackers – I dunno yet. Could be a concern early, I guess. I think Mauti will do just fine in the middle. As for the rest, it’s too early to tell.

Defensive backs – I’m downright optimistic. Wallace was not an important player for us last season. Stephon Morris and D’Anton Lynn were. Morris was a freshman and Lynn was a sophomore. Yippee.

Quarterback and tight ends are the only major concerns I see on offense. I think the offensive line can only be worse if they’re plagued by injuries. They may (I hesitate to say will, for it’s early) struggle against the three big dogs on our schedule, but other than that, I’m not concerned until the season begins.

Frankly, I think Penn State is gonna be fine next year. 9-3 – all losses to national contenders on the road – would be my bet.

"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"

by ReadingRambler on Feb 5, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's hardly scientific

But one of the things I think about when I make the predictions is how a team’s momentum will affect their performance in any given week. Just like in 2009, I think next year’s Wolverines will be 5-1 heading into a date with a ranked Iowa team. And just like last year, I think Michigan will drop to the Hawkeyes.

Last year, the Iowa loss was the beginning of the end. The wheels came off, and Michigan lost 5 of its final 6 games. The media will point to the similarities after the Iowa loss, and question whether history is bound to repeat itself.

The result is a defining moment in the Rodriguez era. The team will build from the skepticism and will ride a bye-week into Happy Valley on an emotional high.

Michigan needs one surprise win next season, and I think they get it when they need it most.

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Law Buckeye on Feb 5, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand your angle. The only thing I would take issue with is that Michigan is Penn State’s only big-name home game next year. Emotions will be riding high for the PSU players, students, and alumni no matter what the teams’ records are at that point in the season.

by rbz14 on Feb 5, 2010 1:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a fair counterpoint.

I visited Beaver Stadium for last year’s Ohio State game, and its a more than formidable venue.

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Law Buckeye on Feb 5, 2010 1:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It also bears mention...

This has been discussed on BSD before, but there’s a fair chance that Joe’s players will be looking to win Joe’s 400th victory.

"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"

by ReadingRambler on Feb 5, 2010 6:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that clearly didnt stop Iowa this year

by rpmhawk on Feb 5, 2010 4:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the valuable insight.

"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"

by ReadingRambler on Feb 5, 2010 6:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

readingrambler

both u and law buck believe in the whole “play extra hard for a milestone victory or a retiring coach” idea…and oddly enough the theory seems to hold up sometimes. Remember Lloyd Carr’s last game or Bobby Bowden’s last game? So I think that’s some good insight.

by grahamfiller10 on Feb 6, 2010 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Purdue starts 5-1....

But beats Notre Dame? So is the loss to Northwester or Minnesota, because we’re not losing to Western Illinois, Toledo, or Ball State.

I do agree that we’re winning in South bend, by a lot

A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance

HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog

by BoilerTMill on Feb 5, 2010 9:45 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Marve most likely

There might be a battle but Marve’s in the driver’s seat heading into spring ball.

As a Purdue fan I do like the prediction, but I hope they continue to beat Michigan. After the hook ‘n lateral of ’08 and the surprise onside kick of ’09 they’re running out of trick plays. I think this year they win with a rouge. RR will never see it coming.

by BoilerPhil on Feb 5, 2010 12:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

because we’re not losing to Western Illinois, Toledo, or Ball State.

and there was no way that MSU was losing to CMU in East Lansing this year.

As for Iowa, it’s all about health (as it is every year). If they stay healthy, they win the league and possibly more. However, unlike the Big Ten elites, they are never deep enough to absorb multiple injuries and make it through the schedule unscathed.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 5, 2010 11:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

CMU is at least a good MAC team

A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance

HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog

by BoilerTMill on Feb 5, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And if you looked around message boards this year

Iowa fans were insisting Northern Iowa was a really good FCS program. The bottom line is, teams like Iowa, MSU and Purdue should not be losing to MAC/FCS programs regardless of pedigree, but we should all know better by now than to prematurely chalk these games up as “wins”.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 5, 2010 2:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not true!

Some of those schools are good teams & can play! 10 years ago, you’d put Boise St. in that statement. The pedigree stuff is something of the past, the recruiting of players, game schemes, & coaches make all the difference!

"You never stand so tall as to when you reach down to pick someone up."

by Chise67 on Feb 7, 2010 1:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I should have put "should not"

in quotes, like I just did, because the point of my response is that Boiler TMill is already counting wins against WIU, Toledo and Ball State for Purdue. I am merely cautioning against such overconfidence because we should all know by now that just about any team can beat an opponent on any given day.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 8, 2010 4:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're not an MSU fan, are you?

Because there was no MSU fan who thought there was no way we would lose. Lots of fans who thought there was no way we should lose, but nobody who thought it couldn’t happen. Being an MSU fan reminds you that anything is possible, good or bad.

by SpartanDan on Feb 6, 2010 7:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

On the contrary,

I thought there was a VERY good chance MSU would lose. That’s not a knock on Sparty, just a reminder than in today’s college football landscape, just about anything is conceivable. I remember watching every minute of Appy St. vs. Michigan. This was simply a response to a Purdue fan (he of a team that sported a losing record) who is already counting wins against “inferior” opponents for next year.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 6, 2010 8:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Caption: Could this be the scene in South Bend in Week 1?

Only if the Michigan scoreboard is being airlifted in.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 5, 2010 11:23 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

That's what you get for breeding clever readers.

"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"

by ReadingRambler on Feb 5, 2010 12:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

BHGP

is the puppy mill of “clever readers”.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 5, 2010 12:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sellout!

You’re one of the doubting Betty’s of the Big 10! Look at our OVERALL record against the other major conferences! We hold our own against anyone. And I’m just waiting on the Florida, Alabama, & USC recruiting violations talk to get going & then the truth comes out! Ohio St. runs the table THIS year & will beat ’Bama, if they make it! Then we can put all this to rest for another decade about the Big 10! And ’Bama will have real trouble with Penn St., yeah, they lost a lot, but they are still LOADED with talent.

"You never stand so tall as to when you reach down to pick someone up."

by Chise67 on Feb 7, 2010 1:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Michigan will win 6 games

Man….Law Buckeye I usually agree with your posts but I don’t see Michigan winning 9 games.

New Kicker/Punter and losing Graham, Brown and Warren will be huge losses. Their schedule also doesn’t do them any favors ducking Northwestern/Minnesota two teams they have historically dominated.

Richrod has won 1 Big 10 road game so far and to win 9 games they are going to have to pull out victories over an improved Purdue squad and the always tough PSU.

I think Michigan will have the chance to win 9 games in 2011 when the schedule improves and his recruits will have another year of experience….but I just don’t see them getting more than 6 wins in 2010.

by RickTheBloggerMartel on Feb 7, 2010 4:30 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It's a win-win situation

I predict Michigan to succeed. If Michigan succeeds, I look like I know what I’m doing. If Michigan fails, I get a good laugh out of it.

And as an added bonus, I mess with Graham’s head.

Now, Rick, you make a great point. The Wolverines are again cursed with youth and inexperience. But, the players they do have coming into the mix, are true system athletes, and Rodriguez has proven he can hit the ground running with the right personnel. Remember West Virginia in 2005 when a freshman quarterback Pat White and a freshman running back Steve Slaton led the Mountaineers to an 11-1 record?

Rich has to make an impact in 2010, because if he doesn’t, he probably won’t get another chance. I think the result is a season that slightly defies rational expectations.

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Law Buckeye on Feb 8, 2010 11:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just want to note

The Arizona State/Wisconsin game next year is in Madison. The Badgers’ lone non-conference road game for 2010 is at UNLV.

by AdamT on Feb 8, 2010 4:17 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

AGAIN?

We’re just feeding more cannon fodder to the idiots saying the Big Ten is weak by playing UNLV. ASU? They’re WAY too inconsistent.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 11, 2010 8:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

One of these years, PSU will lose at least 4 games...

Where’s Phil Steele’s “Returning Offensive Line Starts” Bama Hawkeye posted last year as a indicator for PSU’s predicted fall out of the top 25 in 2009? Heck, I’ll admit that OL play was a big factor in the effectiveness of PSU against Iowa last year, but the team’s Top 10 finish exceeded the expectations of many here at TRE. The only surprising drop in play by any unit was on special teams, and it was a big reason for both losses this past year.

One year it’s the OL, WR and DB corps that need to be replaced—now it’s the QB and the LBs. PSU’s defensive side has shown time and again they can reload instead of rebuild, so we’re left with the QB question. Although I agree it’s a big concern, I don;t believe NewNew or Paul Jones will end up being Prince Morelli II of Turnoverstan.
I don’t think that the simple addition of a new QB will lead to more than three losses on its own.

by Cairo on Feb 8, 2010 11:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

There was a Prince Morelli I?

That mean’s they’re a third one??? God help us.

"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"

by ReadingRambler on Feb 9, 2010 8:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

forgive my grammar failure

"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"

by ReadingRambler on Feb 9, 2010 8:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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