In a world where conferences hire investment banking firms to evaluate potential acquisitions, it's incumbent for us to take a look at the Big Ten portfolio as it currently exists.  Have you ever asked yourself what you're really worth to the conference?  Now you can find out.

Using the same variables that are in play in conference expansion, I've tallied the roster in four key areas: 1. Revenue, 2. Demographics, 3. Competitiveness, and 4. Academics.  Who are the league's true high rollers?  The results may surprise you.

As always, a few ground rules.  First, it's important that we're impartial in our evaluations.  To remove any measure of subjective bias, our analysis will be anonymous.  I've assigned each school a random number which will carry over from category to category until we reach our ultimate conclusions.  Second, each category will be weighted equally and the rankings will be derived from commercially recognized figures.  The formulas will be explained in each individual section.  Finally, to evaluate the league's members in the open marketplace, I've selected three representative controls from outside the conference.  They are fair competitive congeners that (albeit subjectively) have met and exceeded national expectations. 

Let's get started.

Category 1: Revenue

In this first economic category we'll look to the following hard factors: 1. Athletic Department total revenues (as determined by the Orlando Sentinel's 2007-08 survey, and 2. Total league attendance (as determined by the NCAA in 2009).  Total revenues comprise 75% of the ranking composite, while attendance makes up the other 25%.  The eleven current Big Ten members, and three control schools stack up as follows:

Category 2: Demographics



In an attempt to measure native television audiences, I've taken the population of the state the school is located in (as determined by the 2009 estimates of the U.S. Census Bureau), and weighed it against the size of the nearest metropolitian area (as measured by this list of the most populus incorporated areas in the United States).  Both factors are considered equally at this step in the analysis.  Here are the rankings:

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I've got to confess.  Covering expansion is exhausting.  Just eight days ago, I published a graph covering trends in media exposure for the most popular candidates. 

It was immediately out of date.

A report prepared by the Chicago-based investment firm William Blair & Company that leaked to the public put new wind into the sails of three Big East candidates (Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt).  Two of the three weren't even on my graph.

Notre Dame made the list.  Barely.  The simple act of placing the Irish on the grid prompted this response from one commentator:

How many times does the school have to come out and say they want nothing to do with the Big Ten until someone understands? They are NOT coming to the conference. That’s not a maybe, oh if the money is right, possibly later on, etc. That is a straight-up NO. Not going to happen. They shouldn’t even be on the ECG whatsoever. That wave is dead. Absolutely no conductive potential at all. If anything, repeatedly mentioning Notre Dame in every blog I read just makes us come off as desperate, as if we need ND for some reason. We don’t need them, they don’t want us (even though they could probably use a conference…whole other debate), the deal is over. Get over it. Bring on Big Red, Pitt, Mizzou, etc.

I don't think it's much of a stretch to say most Big Ten fans have adopted a similar attitude towards the conference's great white whale.  The Irish are like a hot girl who dumps you after three dates.  You have a lot in common, and think she could be the one.  So you stand outside her door for a minute after she shows you out, just in case she opens it back up.  And you call a couple of times that week, praying she'll change her mind.   

But after she says no a certain number of times, your pride takes over, and you resign yourself to never thinking or talking about her again.  You tell yourself she wasn't really that great.  You focus on her flaws.  You convince yourself that you didn't lose anything at all.  But deep down inside...

You know they don't get any better.

Today Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick admitted that the Irish might not be able to stay independent in the new conference order.  As he told a small group of reporters, "You can each come up with a scenario that would force our hand."

And just like that, "no" becomes "maybe."  The door opens a crack.

Is this an accident, or is it the work of a highly skilled professional?  By carefully staging press releases, offering open-ended answers, and misdirecting attention to decoy programs (Missouri, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Texas), Jim Delany has created an unprecedented air of instability across the FBS landscape.  The preshocks of Big Ten expansion are so strong they've prompted the Pac 10 to pick up a hammer as well.  When the dust settles, it just might be that Delaney's slight of hand has accomplished in eight months what 20 years of traditional diplomacy could not: Notre Dame to the Big Ten.

Go right ahead, call it a conspiracy theory.  But answer me this one question: What does it take to start a nuclear chain reaction?

A: One neutron.

 Reason No. 4: Our Defense > Your Offense

Now that the snow piles built up along streets and in parking lots have shrunk into soft carbon heaps, and mid-day temperatures are mild, it's time to turn our attention to new beginnings.  Starting next Monday, we'll debut Big Ten 2010, an eleven-week, comprehensive look at the conference.  We'll preview each team in reverse order of last year's conference finish, starting with Indiana and ending in late-May with Ohio State.  It will be the largest project we've ever taken on.

To get the juices flowing, let's look at five things the conference has going for it heading into 2010.

5. The Big Pieces Are in Place

The Big Ten posted four wins over Top 15 competition in the postseason.  No other conference can say that.  But the real prize is what's still in the cupboard.  Together, the four Big Ten bowl winners return 60 of 88 starters.  That's 13 for Penn State, 14 for Iowa, 15 for Ohio State, and 18 for Wisconsin.  While most clubs put stock on the talent that's in the pipeline, Big Ten teams can consistently count on leadership and experience in the huddle.

4. Our Defense > Your Offense

Option Killer.

If nothing else, 2009 was the year momentum in the eternal struggle of offense versus defense shifted back to the D.  After half a decade of wreaking havoc with spacial attacks, offensive coordinators from coast to coast were frustrated by fundamentally sound defenses that had their number.  No where in the country was this more evident than in the Big Ten, where three top ten defensive units (No. 5 Ohio State, No. 9 Penn State, No. 10 Iowa) routinely chewed quarterbacks up and spit them out. 

But wait, they just looked good because Big Ten offenses are bad, right?  Wrong.  When put to the test, Big Ten defenses squeezed the life out of several of the country's premiere attacks (Oregon, Georgia Tech, Miami), proving that defense still wins championships.

That's good for us, because the aforementioned defenses return 19 of 33 starters, including Iowa's Adrian Clayborn and Ohio State's Cameron Heyward.

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The thing that fascinates me the most about the expansion race is our tendency to pre-commit to the program a la mode.  A month ago it was Missouri, then Pitt, Texas, and Nebraska.  Now?  Well, according to one influential columnist Rutgers is the Big Ten's knight in shining armor. 

As Mr. Greenstein sees it the State University of New Jersey has everything the Big Ten wants: revenue from an enlarged television demographic, geographic connectivity, academics, and a deep new pool of talent for recruiting.

Here's one thing the the Scarlet Knights don't have: athletics worth a damn.

Sure, that's a little harsh -- but give me a break.  The football program's high water mark is a win over a No. 3 Louisville team in 2006 that catapulted it to a 10-0 start and a No. 6 BCS ranking.  The Scarlet Knights would go on to post an 11-2 season, earning them a No. 12 ranking in the final polls.  The last time Rugters football finished in the Top 15 before that?  1961.  Rutgers football all time is just 6 games over 500.  Current Maverick head coach Greg Schiano has a losing record.  The Scarlet Knights have only had one player drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.

Sure, they have one national championship.  In 1869.  

Don't even get me started on the basketball program.

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Ever since expansion became a "front burner" issue, rumors have swept across the college football landscape like wildfire.  From the mundane (Pittsburgh to Big Ten), to the spectacular (Texas to Big Ten), to the outrageous (Brazil to Big Ten), ethics in journalism have been cast aside in a race to make much adieu about nothing...or something.

Barry Alvarez's comments last week that the Big Ten hired a third-party to conduct its search, and the conference had received an initial report with 15 names on the list, fueled a parade of speculation that has reached fever pitch.  Jim Delaney's follow up that a recommendation might be made to the Council of Presidents/Chancellors by summer, keeps an answer so close, yet so far away.

Murmurs on Big Ten Expansion are sensitive creatures.  What better way to measure them than elecrocardiography?  Sadly, we can't attach electrodes to the mainstream media.  But we can keep our ears to the ground.  What follows is the first edition of an ongoing series tracking expansion hype on a weekly basis.  Let's go to the board:

Click to get a closer look.

I've taken the five most popular targets for Big Ten expansion and charted six weeks of developments relating to popular perceptions.  The index works on a zero to 1,000 point scale -- the former signaling a team is completely off-the-radar, and the later indicating a program is ready to sign on the dotted line.  I think we can learn a lot about large-scale trends from this kind of seismographic approach.

Here's what the last month and a half has taught us...

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Combine Thoughts

I took a frosh year history class at Miami (OH) and my study partner was the starting OLB for the football team, Terna Nande. Terna is a solid guy from Grand Rapids, Michigan; he was smooth with women, helped me understand some confusing rap lyrics in the song "Mo Money Mo Problems,"and graduated in three years with an education degree. Most importantly (for this blogs sake), he was well known for putting up impressive numbers in the weight room. Rumors began flying around sophomore year that he had broken the school bench press record by maxing out on something like 515 lbs and then subsequently put up the 2nd highest squad ever (620 lbs). For a 220 lb man, that's nuts, so I just figured he was a physical freak and left it at that.

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Let's face it.  Now that the Senior Bowl and shrine games are over, and national signing day is well in the rear view mirror, we have no extra-team competition of any kind to look forward to for over half a year.  Sure there will be developments that merit attention -- spring practice, depth chart adjustments, spring games, league media days, and fall camp are a few that stand out -- but give me a break.  They're nothing like the genuine article.  And no matter how many times I try to tap into my dormant fall fanaticism during the layoff, I can't imitate the risks and rewards.

The result leaves true blue obsessives like me frantically searching for a pulse, and reading into anything and everything that might affect the season to be.  One of the things I pay way too much attention to are injury and personnel reports.  The reason is obvious: the well-being of a team's component parts directly affects its overall competitive output.  Players battling injuries or facing discipline are less likely to make important mental and physical gains in the offseason.

To that end, here's a few relevant developments affecting the Big Ten in next year's out of conference and league play.

1. Terrelle Goes Under the Knife

Ohio State's pariah turned promised one, Terrelle Pryor, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee a few weeks ago to correct a partially torn posterior cruciate ligament.

The good news is... The procedure was routine, was referred to as a "success," and Pryor is expected to be 100 percent before Spring Practice, so he's not expected to miss a beat.

On the other hand... You never want to see your quarterback anywhere near a scalpel, especially not a team whose lofty ambitions rest squarely on his shoulders.  If Pryor's "speedy recovery" gets sidetracked, he'll miss crucial opportunities to get much needed developmental reps.

The Verdict: Slightly negative/neutral.  If Pryor is wearing cleats April 1 and his pain has subsided, this actually might be a net positive.  Then again, you never know.  The short-term effects of the surgery spell anxiety in Columbus.

(Insert Cameron Heyward here)

2. Hurricane Damage in Miami

We knew in December that Miami's star running back Graig Cooper would miss the spring and possibly the entire fall because of a knee injury sustained in a Champs Sports Bowl loss to Wisconsin.  But just last week, news broke in Coral Gables that quarterback Jacory Harris would also sit to nurse a pesky thumb injury in his throwing hand.

The good news is... Harris will participate in non-throwing drills to keep his mind sharp, and is more than expected to be rehabilitated by fall camp.  Additionally, Graig Cooper has not been definitively ruled out for 2010.

On the other hand... Harris is a young quarterback, prone to sporadic glimpses of brilliance and episodic meltdowns.  The Champs Sports Bowl showed he needs all the preparation he can get to learn to stay calm in the pocket.  If Harris thought Wisconsin's defensive line was scary, wait until he meets Ohio State's on September 11th.

The Verdict: Bad news for Miami, good news for the Buckeyes.  Although I always want to play teams full strength, Hurricane health issues have the potential to significantly handicap the team's development in the offseason.  Miami is Ohio State's most difficult out of conference opponent in 2010, and if the Buckeyes get by Randy Shannon's club, only the Big Ten will stand in their way of a return to Glendale.

3. Clayborn and the Cabbie

Iowa star defensive end Adrian Clayborn will reportedly plead guility to a misdemeanor charge of assault causing bodily injury, or some lesser offense on March 19th, stemming from an incident with a cab driver in 2009.

The good news is... Despite allegedly clocking a cabbie, Clayborn remains in good standing with the team, and does not appear to be at risk of suspension.

On the other hand... An admission of guilt could automatically trigger team punishment for a player that is integral to Iowa's success in 2010.

The Verdict: Slightly bad news for Iowa, slightly good news for the rest of the Big Ten.  Although Kirk Ferentz seems to be standing by his man, there's a chance things will change once Clayborn's guilt is adjudicated.  Iowa, frankly, cannot afford to lose the FedEx Orange Bowl MVP.

Two more coaches remain to be graded, from opposite ends of the football spectrum nonetheless, but each facing different kinds of pressure. Will the crucial third year of Rich Rodriguez's term at Michigan be the first of many successful seasons? Can Bill Lynch maintain the offensive success that he found in 2008?

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